​As we start a new year we can get a good picture of how 5G fared in 2020. We don’t have December data yet, but the trend lines and growth rates have been fairly stable throughout the year and visually it is relatively easy to see how the year developed. Our primary indicators, which consist of Form Factors, Vendors, Devices, and Phones, all grew this year (using November ’20 to November ’19 comparisons), as noted in the table below, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. It is hard to judge how much the pandemic has affected 5G development given that 2020 was the first full year of real 5G deployments, but we expect that relatively modest premiums for 5G smartphones has been a major factor in the growth of that category, which spawns growth in the other categories as potential vendors see a consumer mobile market grow rapidly.
|
12 Month 5G Key Indicator Growth |
|
|
Category |
Y/Y |
|
Form Factors |
33.3% |
|
Vendors |
44.4% |
|
Devices |
183.6% |
|
Phones |
364.8% |
|
Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com |
|
​Fig. 2 shows a bit more detail in three of those indictors, and while we note that CPE (Customer Premise Equipment) looks like it saw a decline in November, that was not the case, as beginning in November the CPE data no longer included CPE equipment designed for IoT or private networks as it does not related to public broadband networks. We do note that 5G smartphone growth continues, although there are seasonal factors that can have an effect on monthly growth rates. Apple’s (AAPL) October/November release of the iPhone 12 family, which was 5G ready, usually keeps other brands from releasing new phones into the global market, and some of the more unusual 5G smartphones, such as those for gaming or foldables, might be held until they could be released at the 2021 (virtual) CES show, while Chinese brands are looking to get new 5G phones out in time for the Chinese 2021 New Year holiday (Feb. 12).
On area that we found disappointing in 2020 was the split between 5G types, sub6 and mmWave. It is certainly understandable that carriers would take the path of least resistance, both from a cost and coverage perspective, but early in the year we had expected that the trend would be toward mmWave, which was not the case. In fact the trend has been away from mmWave and while perhaps leveling off in recent months, we have to make the assumption that as 5G gets rolled out in other countries and regions, the trend will remain in favor of sub6. Thus far, mmWave, because of its relatively limited broadcast distance, seems to be relegated to private networks needing very high bandwidth or speed, with consumers not realizing the real potential of 5G. There has been movement in more developed areas toward offering mid-band 5G, rather than low-band, but Verizon (VZ) in the US is really the only carrier to focus on mmWave from the onset of 5G service. In June of 2020 Open Signal ran download speed tests, and while most carriers 5G service was only moderately faster than 4G, Verizon’s was over 17 times faster than their 4G service, while others averaged between 1.7 and 1.8 time faster than 4G.
All in we expect 5G growth, in all categories, to continue in 2021 with an increasing number of 5G devices. In 2020 the breakdown of Form Factors is shown in Fig. 3 but the ‘other’ category misses the breadth of 5G device types. This category includes drones, Head-mounted displays, including in-vehicle routers, modems and hotspots, robots, TVs, cameras, vehicles, and a vending machine, some of which seem excessive (5G vending machine?), while others seem quite logical (5G drones). As local and global 5G coverage continues to expand, we expect a variety of new form factors to appear.
On area that we found disappointing in 2020 was the split between 5G types, sub6 and mmWave. It is certainly understandable that carriers would take the path of least resistance, both from a cost and coverage perspective, but early in the year we had expected that the trend would be toward mmWave, which was not the case. In fact the trend has been away from mmWave and while perhaps leveling off in recent months, we have to make the assumption that as 5G gets rolled out in other countries and regions, the trend will remain in favor of sub6. Thus far, mmWave, because of its relatively limited broadcast distance, seems to be relegated to private networks needing very high bandwidth or speed, with consumers not realizing the real potential of 5G. There has been movement in more developed areas toward offering mid-band 5G, rather than low-band, but Verizon (VZ) in the US is really the only carrier to focus on mmWave from the onset of 5G service. In June of 2020 Open Signal ran download speed tests, and while most carriers 5G service was only moderately faster than 4G, Verizon’s was over 17 times faster than their 4G service, while others averaged between 1.7 and 1.8 time faster than 4G.
All in we expect 5G growth, in all categories, to continue in 2021 with an increasing number of 5G devices. In 2020 the breakdown of Form Factors is shown in Fig. 3 but the ‘other’ category misses the breadth of 5G device types. This category includes drones, Head-mounted displays, including in-vehicle routers, modems and hotspots, robots, TVs, cameras, vehicles, and a vending machine, some of which seem excessive (5G vending machine?), while others seem quite logical (5G drones). As local and global 5G coverage continues to expand, we expect a variety of new form factors to appear.
Figure 1 - 5G Ecosystem - Primary Indicators - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
Figure 2 - Selected 5G Devices - Device Offerings - Source: SC
Figure 3 - Announced 5G Form Factors - Source: GSM
Figure 4 - 5G Frequency Band Device Share - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA
Figure 5 - Open Signal Survey - US Carrier Download Speed vs. Availability - Source: SCMR LLC, Open Signal
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