As we have noted recently, South Korean display producers Samsung Display (pvt) and LG DIsplay (LPL) made a decision last year to wind down much or all of their large panel LCD production, particularly those fabs producing in Korea. While those plans have been postponed in recent months as large panel prices rise, both companies have been executing long-term plans to reduce their exposure to LCD production and increase their exposure to OLED, albeit in entirely different ways. Samsung Display uses RGB OLED for much of its small panel production, that is, smartphones, tablets, and recently notebooks, while focusing on other technology for large panel displays (quantum dots and mini-LED). LG Display has taken another track, and while they do produce small panel RGB OLED displays for smartphones and monitors, they have a singular focus on OLED for large panel (TV) displays.
Both companies dominate their chosen areas and combined the South Korean share of the small panel OLED market was 84.9%[1] with China a distant 2nd at 14.1%, while the country’s share of large size OLED displays was 98.1% last year. In the data provided by the Korea International Trade Association and the Korea Display Industry Association, the charts shows what one might say is a ‘positive spin’ on the overall data, focused primarily on South Korea’s increasing exports value of OLED displays, and we don’t dispute these facts, Fig. 4 below combines both LCD and OLED export value and paints a less favorable picture of the combined South Korean display space in that growth has been rather negative overall. OLED export value certainly has been expanding at a CAGR of 14.6%, while LCD export value has been declining at a -21.8% CAGR, which puts the total export value CAGR at -9.6% (excluding 2021 estimate).
We are in no way criticizing the two South Korean panel producers’ decision to move away from generic small and large panel LCD production, in fact quite the opposite, however such transitions can cause total output value to decline, inclusive of panel price declines. While expectations for South Korea’s export value of LCD production is forecasted to decline again this year, early expectations (not ours) are for an increase in OLED exports and an overall gain in the combined total. As the year is young and we expect considerable panel price volatility this year, we are not quite ready to assume an up year for South Korean total exports, but at the least, we would not rule it out.
[1] Omdia data - Sales
Both companies dominate their chosen areas and combined the South Korean share of the small panel OLED market was 84.9%[1] with China a distant 2nd at 14.1%, while the country’s share of large size OLED displays was 98.1% last year. In the data provided by the Korea International Trade Association and the Korea Display Industry Association, the charts shows what one might say is a ‘positive spin’ on the overall data, focused primarily on South Korea’s increasing exports value of OLED displays, and we don’t dispute these facts, Fig. 4 below combines both LCD and OLED export value and paints a less favorable picture of the combined South Korean display space in that growth has been rather negative overall. OLED export value certainly has been expanding at a CAGR of 14.6%, while LCD export value has been declining at a -21.8% CAGR, which puts the total export value CAGR at -9.6% (excluding 2021 estimate).
We are in no way criticizing the two South Korean panel producers’ decision to move away from generic small and large panel LCD production, in fact quite the opposite, however such transitions can cause total output value to decline, inclusive of panel price declines. While expectations for South Korea’s export value of LCD production is forecasted to decline again this year, early expectations (not ours) are for an increase in OLED exports and an overall gain in the combined total. As the year is young and we expect considerable panel price volatility this year, we are not quite ready to assume an up year for South Korean total exports, but at the least, we would not rule it out.
[1] Omdia data - Sales
South Korea - Display Export Value - Display Type - Source: KITA, KDIA
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