Here They Come…
With the Metaverse being the major technology topic of discussion across the blog-sphere, the inevitability of forecasts and predictions is a given. Considering that the Metaverse remains undefined and essential a concept that is different for each person trying to describe it, predictions are going to vary widely and will likely be far from apples-to-apples comparisons. The most recent is from Taiwan-based Trendforce, a keeper of semiconductor and similar pricing data, and usually one of the more aggressive forecasters.
While Trendforce has narrowed down its ‘Metaverse’ to “Global Virtual Reality Content Revenue” between 2021 ($2.16b) and 2025 ($8.31b) and assigned a 40% CAGR for the period, the primary applications involved in the segment would be gaming, videos, and social interactions, although the caveat is that since the creation of true Metaverse content is a complex and time-consuming project, much of the revenue will come from UGC, or user generated content, with companies waiting to see if there is a path toward commercial Metaverse content that has some connection with profitability before entering the Metaverse wholeheartedly.
The problems with such predictions are that most of the user generated content would be based on VR, which is still in the hardware development stage. VR equipment is bulky and relatively low resolution, making it unappealing or unavailable to many potential users, along with a high price tag. VR market predictions themselves have been in the kindest terms, very wrong in most cases, with growth rates far less than VR gurus have expected. All the talk of the Metaverse by social media companies will help to spur VR development but there have been other ‘stimuli’ that were predicted to put a VR headset in every pot before, while the number of VR units shipped annually remains below 10m and cumulatively below 17m.
From the perspective of those in the display industry, micro-displays are an evolving product with resolutions nearing 4K levels, but progress is difficult as geometries get smaller and expectations for major breakthroughs in terms of actual commercial product will take time. There are only a small number of display producers that can supply high brightness, full color, high resolution displays under 1.5”, with Sony (SNE) and BOE (200725.CH) being the ones with the most models, so the competition on the display side is still in the ‘chicken-and-egg’ mode, with R&D spending tied to the potential for higher volume production.
We certainly don’t criticize those making predictions for VR/AR or the Metaverse, in whatever form it might take, be we note that years of VR predictions have missed the mark consistently, and usually by a wide margin. While the Metaverse is a virtual concept, VR and AR hardware and software are physical and while the ebb and flow of interest in the virtual world will continue to affect investor interest and valuations, the reality part of virtual reality is the most important.
While Trendforce has narrowed down its ‘Metaverse’ to “Global Virtual Reality Content Revenue” between 2021 ($2.16b) and 2025 ($8.31b) and assigned a 40% CAGR for the period, the primary applications involved in the segment would be gaming, videos, and social interactions, although the caveat is that since the creation of true Metaverse content is a complex and time-consuming project, much of the revenue will come from UGC, or user generated content, with companies waiting to see if there is a path toward commercial Metaverse content that has some connection with profitability before entering the Metaverse wholeheartedly.
The problems with such predictions are that most of the user generated content would be based on VR, which is still in the hardware development stage. VR equipment is bulky and relatively low resolution, making it unappealing or unavailable to many potential users, along with a high price tag. VR market predictions themselves have been in the kindest terms, very wrong in most cases, with growth rates far less than VR gurus have expected. All the talk of the Metaverse by social media companies will help to spur VR development but there have been other ‘stimuli’ that were predicted to put a VR headset in every pot before, while the number of VR units shipped annually remains below 10m and cumulatively below 17m.
From the perspective of those in the display industry, micro-displays are an evolving product with resolutions nearing 4K levels, but progress is difficult as geometries get smaller and expectations for major breakthroughs in terms of actual commercial product will take time. There are only a small number of display producers that can supply high brightness, full color, high resolution displays under 1.5”, with Sony (SNE) and BOE (200725.CH) being the ones with the most models, so the competition on the display side is still in the ‘chicken-and-egg’ mode, with R&D spending tied to the potential for higher volume production.
We certainly don’t criticize those making predictions for VR/AR or the Metaverse, in whatever form it might take, be we note that years of VR predictions have missed the mark consistently, and usually by a wide margin. While the Metaverse is a virtual concept, VR and AR hardware and software are physical and while the ebb and flow of interest in the virtual world will continue to affect investor interest and valuations, the reality part of virtual reality is the most important.
Global VR Shipments - Source Statista
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