​Samsung (005930.KS) announced the Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip at an event in NY yesterday.  The devices have been the subject of extensive leaks and rumors for months and surprises were few during the announcement.  Rather than list the specs, here are the differences between last year’s Fold 6 and this year’s Fold 7:

• Thinner                          The Fold 7 is 8.9mm thick when folded and 4.2mm when unfolded.  The Fold 6 was 12.1mm thick when folded and 5.6mm unfolded.  The difference (3.2mm or 0.12”) is about the thickness of a toenail so it will not destress your pocket enough to make a difference either way, but we expect it was a hard fought battle at the design and component level to get the gain, most of which comes from the new hinge mechanism and a layer removal (see below).
• Lighter                            The Fold 7 is 7.58 oz, or ~10% lighter than the Fold 6.  A AA battery weighs 24 grams, the difference between the Fold 7 and Fold 6
• Stronger                        The glass front of the Fold 7 is Corning (GLW) Gorilla Glass Victus Ceramic 2 while the Fold 6 is GG Victus 2 without the ceramic crystals.  The fold will be slightly better when falling on a rough surface.
• Main Display               The main (folded) display is 8.0” or 10.3% larger than the main display of the Fold 6 and has a 7.2% increase in pixel count (resolution).
• Front Display              The front display of the Fold 7 is 6.5”, or 6.3% larger (surface area)
• Chipset                          The Fold 7 chipset is the Qualcomm (QCOM) Snapdragon 8 Elite (3nm) while the Fold 6 was a Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 (4nm).  The newer chipset should perform a bit better, as will the GPU which has been updated from the Adreno 750 to the Adreno 830
• Main Camera              This is the big change for the Fold 7, which has a 200MP, f/1.7 wide angle camera, a major improvement over the 50 MP f/1.8 wide angle camera on the Fold 6.  The other 2 cameras remain the same this year, while the selfie cams get a slight improvement.
• Battery                           Surprisingly, the battery capacity of the Fold 7 is the same as last year’s Li-Po 4400 mAh battery.  With the newer chipset, power consumption should be a bit better, so we expect Samsung saw no reason to increase battery capacity.
• Stylus                             Under “puts & takes”, the stylus is a ‘take’ as the Fold 7 no longer supports the S Pen.  In order to reduce the thickness over the Fold 6, the digitizing layer was removed, a loss for those using the device for creative purposes.  While understandable from the standpoint of engineering, we see this as a mistake in that foldables are an alternative to carrying a laptop for creative types.  Competing in that market against those that have a stylus without one will be difficult.
• Price                               The other ‘take’ is the price, which is $100 higher for the equivalent memory/storage configuration.

While we have not yet used the Fold 7, we see most of the incremental changes to hardware as incidental, with the exception of the main camera improvement.  With each yearly phone iteration consumers expect performance improvements and minor upgrades, which they get with the Fold 7, but there seems to be little, at least on the hardware side, to push a potential buyer to upgrade from the Fold 6 to the Fold 7, and the loss of the pen will reduce that potential upgrade base a bit.  Again, only from the hardware standpoint, it would seem that the main camera improvement and other incremental upgrades just about justify the higher cost, but the real test comes from two additional points.
Will software improvements (AI related) be significant enough to justify a model upgrade for the Samsung fan base and how will competitive brands respond?  Chinese brands have reduced prices on foldables as they build up production expertise but are so used to giving away features the brand differentiation becomes increasingly more difficult, even for foldables, which are now in their 6th year.  As the novelty of foldables becomes less meaningful, it will put them in the same light as the highly competitive smartphone feature set market, where it will take a major change or drastic price reduction to draw attention to a particular brand.  The Fold 7 is what we would have to call a ‘standard upgrade’, not a game changer, unless there is something in the applications or other software that stands out.

We have been tracking Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) Premium TV set pricing since they began marketing Mini-LED/QD sets in 2023 and their OLED lines since 2022.  The purpose is to compare the short and long-term pricing trends for particular TV set lines and for a more general view of Samsung’s premium TV set pricing on a year/year basis.  This gives us a monthly, quarterly and yearly trend that can help to understand how the company, which is the largest TV set producer globally, views the TV set market at any given time.
On a short-term basis, Samsung has been consistently following pricing pattern trends with both this year’s (2025) line and last year’s, as shown in Figure 1, with both year’s pricing moving in close synchronization.  That said, when we compare the rate of change in TV set pricing for the first 90 days that each line was available to consumers, one can see that this year has been quite different than previous years.   Each year since the Mini-LED/QD and OLED lines have been available, the price of each set category has declined during the first 90 days of avaialability, except this year, where prices have increased for all Mini-LED/QD categories and remained relatively flat for OLED types.  There have been ups and downs, typically holiday based, but the 90 day trend this year is certainly different than in previous years and would indicate a focus for Samsung more toward profitability than unit volume growth, at least in the Mini-LED/QD set lines.
The competition in the Mini-LED LCD TV space has continued to intensify, with Chinese brands, particularly Hisense (600060.CH) and TCL (000100.CH) expanding their lines with larger size models and more aggressive pricing, and with additional help from the Chinese government’s “New for Old” subsidy program, Samsung and other non-Chinese brands face considerable price competition, which tends to push Samsung’s general TV set positioning more toward higher-end premium sets, where there is a bit more margin flexibility.
In the US, Samsung has a considerably better position, with Chinese sets facing higher tariffs limiting competition from Chinese brands, which we expect has given Samsung the chance to keep premium TV set prices higher than normal during the early part of the year.  But as the year progresses, Samsung will have to begin the process of bringing down set prices to stimulate sales volumes.  If Samsung is to meet its goal of becoming the world’s largest OLED TV vendor, it will be necessary to bring OLED pricing more in line with seasonal norms, and while we are unsure if Samsung has similar goals with its Mini-LED/QD lines, we expect the same pricing issues will exist for those lines.

In the most recent 30-day period, Samsung’s premium TV set pricing has moved as follows:

As is our custom, we don’t rely on a single or even two estimates when it comes to smartphone shipments.  We average as many estimates as possible to arrive at a realistic estimate that smooths those that might be considered outliers.  Our summary totals for 1Q 2025 came to 296.9m units shipped, up 2.4% q/q but down 0.3% y/y.  The range topped out at 304.9m units and bottomed at 289m units.  Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) was the only brand that saw q/q improvement as the company pulled in shipments to avoid any tariff consequences, although 4 of the 5 top brands in terms of shipments saw positive y/y comparisons.  

​Given the uncertain tariff situation and that uncertainty leading to a weak consumer electronics purchasing cycle, full year estimates for smartphone shipments have been declining.  While most still see positive growth for the year, that growth rate is minimal to none, as opposed to estimates made late last year in the low to middle single digit range.  At this point in time, with expectations that there will be another extension on the tariff negotiations with China, we would be happy to see a flat to slightly up year, but our hope for anything positive is withering day by day.  China seems to finally be exerting a bit of leverage with their dominance in the rare earth market, which seems to be slowing down what we expect the Trump administration thought was going to be a quick settlement.  If the negotiations are extended more deeply into 3Q, we expect it will continue to dampen demand and leave 4Q as the ‘saving grace quarter.

​Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) announced it would build a new semiconductor fab in June of 2020, relatively soon after it completed construction of its P2 fab in Pyeongtaek, South Korea.  The P3 fab was to start construction in September 2020 and was to begin operation in late 2021 or early 2022, the 3rd plant at this site, and a bit larger (~75%) than P2.  The fab was originally thought to be focused on DRAM and NAND production and was to feature the latest production technology that is available to the company, logically, EUV, and would add to Samsung’s dominance of the memory market.  Back in May of this year it was indicated that Samsung would begin to place orders and install equipment at the fab and complete construction by the 2nd half of the year.
The fab is expected to cost between $23.35b and $31.14b over the next few years as the fab is fully built out, and the company has enough land at the site to build three additional fabs (P4 – P6) with a combination of NAND, DRAM, and foundry capacity going forward, however it seems Samsung is facing the same inflationary cost increases that we as consumers have been facing, despite the fact that Samsung affiliates are some of the major suppliers to the project.  Samsung C&T (028260.KS) has increased its contract price by 34.4% against the original contract,  Samsung Engineering (028050.KS) has raised its contract price by 40.0% and Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KS) has raised its contract price by 24.1%, putting the increase for just these three affiliates up by 35.1% in aggregate, or an additional $778.5m US, with all three citing increases in raw materials and labor costs as the reason behind the increases.
While the construction and the equipment installation continues, some of the ongoing contracts have been pushed out by as much as a year, which we expect means that Samsung is focusing on finishing specific P3 projects and delaying the build-out of others in this large fab.  Intel (INTC) is also facing a similar situation as it plans out its new fab in Magdeburg, Germany, as the cost has risen from 18.07b US to 21.26b US, a 17.65% increase, with the company indicating that it has delayed the start of construction for the project, which was to begin in the 1st half of 2023, even with the $7.23b promised by the German government toward the project.
While none of this is good for the global economy, it does have one positive outcome, and that is to slow the capacity increases that have been planned for the semiconductor space, which we expect would cause an over-supply situation  in 2024 and 2025.  While the delays will inevitably move back into the queue as overall consumer demand begins to stabilize, at least the build-outs will be a bit more staggered, although China is still a wild card that will likely see less semiconductor planning changes as the battle with the US government over semiconductor equipment continues.  China has little choice but to build capacity as it sees both external supply and demand decrease.  While China might not be able to build advanced node capacity, they can add more mature nodes for internal consumption and wait until the global climate is ready to allow them back, at which point we expect they will dominate the generic  semiconductor space, as they have done in both the LED and display industries.

Back a bit over a year ago, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) announced that they had chosen a site in Taylor, Texas for their new 6 million square foot semiconductor fab that is expected to have a $17b price tag.  As shown in Figure 3, the site was essentially open farmland, although Figure 4 shows the current status of the site work.  Samsung has just begun to order basic cleanroom equipment from a number of South Korean suppliers, with deliveries scheduled for January of 2023.  The equipment is thought to be specialized air conditioning and filtering units that are external to the cleanroom, which can be placed before construction is completed.
The town of Taylor has also approved the addition of 9 new applications from Samsung for additional facilities likely to be built in the future, expanding the tax rebate zone to 1,268 acres, which would allow for additional fabs to be built on the site without additional tax abatement approval.  The town has also approved a $271m application from Linde (LIN), which will provide co-located industrial gases used at the plant.  Samsung has been offering an internship program to the town’s independent school system, donated $1m to 4 local non-profits, and is sponsoring job fairs to residents.  The plant is expected to need ~2,000 workers once it begins full-scale operation, and while we expect senior management will come from Samsung in Korea and from Samsung’s other fabs in Texas, the job picture for the region seems positive, especially as suppliers commit to local facilities.
The ground-breaking ceremony, which was expected earlier this year, has still not taken place, site work has continued and foundations are being laid, with the initial production scheduled to begin in the 2nd half of 2024, although we expect things are a bit behind schedule.  That said, these early equipment orders bode well for clean room construction to begin early next year, and signal that Samsung is fully behind the project and the timeline is progressing although there is still considerable equipment that has yet to be ordered, which leads us to expect a few months might be added to the production date.

​Samsung Electronics 005930.KS) has changed suppliers for next year’s Galaxy Z Fold 5, and seems to be eliminating smaller level suppliers for the Galaxy S flagship line, as it moves more camera business to its affiliate Samsung Electro-mechanics (SEMES) (009140.KS).  For those high-end models, Samsung has eliminated Partron (091700.KS), who was a small supplier for the Galaxy line, and will be using SEMES, MCNEX (097520.KS), and Cammsys (050110.KS) for the Galaxy Flip 5 front camera, and for the Fold 5 Samsung will use the same three suppliers with Shenzhen Sunny Optical (002876.CH) as a secondary supplier, while the upcoming Galaxy S23 line will use cameras from SEMES, Sunny, Powerlogics (047310.KS), and Namuga (190510.KS), with Partron as a back-up supplier.
Partron is trying to diversity, lessening its reliance on the smartphone business, and hoping to move into the automotive camera sector, perhaps a result of Samsung’s supplier changes, but they are still expected to be supplying cameras for Samsung’s mid-to-low priced Galaxy A and Galaxy m series which are their higher volume models but face even more price pressure from Chinese brands.  All in, Samsung’s mobile division remains under pressure to reduce costs, and has been and is expected to push even more business toward OEM’s in 2023.  This could mean less business for South Korean component suppliers, as OEMs have component source decision making license, and as Samsung pushes more business toward its own affiliates, so the race to be included in those products, such as the foldables and flagship phones, becomes even more important.

Semi.org has made their predictions for silicon wafer shipments (area) through 2025, with growth of 4.8% this year and growth each year through 2025 except 2023.  Simply put, macro conditions in 2023 are blamed for the decline in polished wafers, but growth resumes again in 2024 and 2025, which we have to assume means that inflation is brought under control in 2024 and beyond.  Hopefully, that will be true, but we expect estimates to come down a bit further  for 2024 & 2025 as we move through 1Q 2023.

As we have been tracking TV set pricing for Samsung’s (005930.KS) 8K and 4K Mini-LED/QD and QD only sets since their release in May of last year, along with this year’s models, we can get a good picture as to where Samsung set pricing is relative to premium TV set pricing.
Samsung has eliminated a number of last year’s models from its website, particularly the top-end (900 series) 8K mini-LED/QD sets, (the 85” model had a price of $5,000 on our last check) some 4K mini-LED/QD sets (85A) and some quantum dot only sets (80A).  Most are still available on Amazon (AMZN) and a few other sites, but at much higher prices than where they ended on Samsung’s site.  More importantly, there was relatively little discounting on the remaining 2021 models over the last month or so.
That was not the case with the 2022 models, where discounting heading into November was very heavy.  The six 8K min-LED/QD sets offered this year saw a 15.7% drop over the last 55 days (9/9 to current), the 12 4K mini-LED/QD sets saw a 12.3% decline, and the QD only sets (2022 only) saw an 8.7% decline, while all 4K sets combined saw a 10.7% decline, and the value of the 2022 sets on a price/in2 of surface declined by 39.4% so far this year.
This puts 33 of the 36 sets in the 2022 mini-LED/QD or QD only line at their lowest point this year, with the 3 that are not at their lowest point all being 98” sets that have remained at $15,000 since they were released.  Looking at Figure 1, it is obvious that TV set price reductions have begun earlier this year than last and while this year’s year-end prices might be closer together than current prices would indicate, we expect they will be lower given the economic situation this year. 
With Black Friday only 25 days away, we expect Samsung to continue to offer more aggressive discounts this year to entice customers who are facing a much weaker economic scenario than last year.  The TV space overall has already been facing a difficult year as we have noted in the past, but while brand shipment/production expectations have declined as the year progressed, primarily in the 2nd half, more recent cuts seem to indicate that TV brands have come to a point where they have to choose between reducing prices to gain unit volume or trying to maintain margins on lower unit sales.  Samsung has recently cut its shipment/production expectations by ~12.5%, and given that they are the largest TV set producer globally, we expect they are indicative of what other brands are contemplating.  If we were to apply the same reduction that Samsung recently made and applied it to all of the other brands, the result would be shown in Figure 2 ‘current column.  Note that some brands will not see cuts that large while others will see worse, so the ‘current’ column is an illustration, not an estimate.  We expect actual 4Q results to be modestly better than shown.

One doesn’t usually think of the washing machine business as a dog-eat-dog market but the global household laundry equipment market is a ~$101b market, along with the inevitable ‘smart’ washing/drying’ category driving much of the growth.  The global market is fragmented with China’s Haier (600690.CH) the leader with a ~20% share, followed by Whirlpool (WHR) (14%), but the ‘other’ category is a big one at over 30%, pointing to a number of smaller brands that are popular regionally.  LG Electronics (066570.KS) has a lesser share (~6%) and South Korean rival Samsung Electronics is part of the ‘other category’, although in the US both LG and Samsung are popular contenders given their focus on ‘smart’ versions of washer/dryer products.
A few years back the former administration instituted trade restrictions on South Korean washers and dryers to help US brands (Whirlpool) to maintain a leading market share, and while those restrictions have been lifted, both the US and global washer/dryer markets remain quite competitive.  Samsung is adept at high volume manufacturing and cost containment in the consumer electronics space and has tried to bring that expertise to their consumer appliance business, however Samsung’s typical approach of pitting suppliers and technologies against each other to lower costs seems to have backfired when it came to their washer business.
Last year Samsung received more JD Power awards for its washers and dryers than any other brand, however they were forced to recall 86.2% of their Bespoke Grande AI front loading washers that they produced between September 2021 and May of this year due to defects in the washer door.  Those defects were allegedly caused by Samsung’s attempt to cut costs by changing suppliers and the formulation for the adhesive that seals the glass to the washer door.  Not only did the company have to issue an expensive recall, but one of its division presidents was called before the Korean Nation Assembly to explain why the defect occurred.
It seems that Samsung’s traditional adhesive supplier, Henkel (HEN.XE) found itself in competition with HB Fuller (FUL), who was providing Samsung with an adhesive that was 25% less expensive than Henkel’s silicon enhanced adhesive.  Fuller’s adhesive was less expensive because it was based on a polyurethane base, different from most washer adhesives, but to Samsung it represented a bit more margin or at least an offset to some of the raw material costs seen over the last two years.  Unfortunately the polyurethane adhesive turned out to be less resistant to heat and other chemicals in detergents and was said to be the cause of the leaky doors, the recall, and the embarrassing testimony.