Blog Archives

It was inevitable that as we get closer to the iPhone 12 release the focus of bloggers would shift to future plans and our note yesterday on rumors surrounding the iPhone 13 (due out a year from now) indicate that we are in for an outpouring of mock-ups, hints, and tipsters decoding Apple (AAPL) comments, patents, and accidentally released documents that will whet the appetites of Apple fans across the globe. After yesterday’s highly definitive delineation as to iPhone 13 display suppliers, we expected little to immediately follow but the ‘blogvine’ in China was abuzz with the latest rumor that Apple has ‘asked’ Samsung to exclusively supply foldable displays to the company for one year.

Considering there have been four brands that have produced commercial foldable smartphones and one foldable laptop, and three foldable display suppliers, Apple’s choices would be particularly limited and given Apple’s propensity for high specification displays, BOE (200725.CH) would have a hard time competing with the extensive experience Samsung Display (pvt) has in the flexible OLED display realm. LG Display (LPL), which a supplier of small panel flexible OLED displays, is best known for its large panel flexible and rollable expertise and has been working its way back into Apple’s good graces after some display supply issues in the past, but logic holds that if Apple were truly interested in foldable displays, the choice would be Samsung, despite its desire to reduce its dependence on same.
While the thought of such a choice makes logical sense, the real question is whether Apple has plans for a commercial product in 2021.. Apple tends to not be an early adopter, and foldable display technology is barely out of the cradle, so our inclination would be that Apple is looking to develop the technology over the next year, with a potential product more likely in 2022, especially remembering how long it took Apple to transition from LCD displays to OLED displays for the iPhone family. What might be more credible would be a foldable iPad or even a MacBook, albeit a variant to more standard models. In that way, Apple does not risk pushing users into a new technology that could be ripe with problems, but rather lets Apple fans decide if they want to try the technology themselves.

Of course, all of this is speculation, but Apple walks a fine line between lagging behind technology leaders and satisfying a large base of devoted Apple consumers, which does push them to make a few attempts at pushing the technology envelope, which keeps us from discounting the entire story, and while Apple certainly has their fingers in a number of technology pies, this would be one where they would be back to depending on a single supplier once again.

In the past, Apple stores have offered a variety of accessories, particularly headphones and speakers from a number of companies separate from Apple itself. At the end of last month however, Apple removed such products from its physical locations, similar to the way in which it remove Fitbit products from its stores in 2014, right after it released the Apple Watch. While Apple has made 3rd party changes to its store line-ups before, the removal of Sonus (SONO), Bose (pvt), and Logitech (LOGI) products eliminates all non-Apple 3rd party headphones and speakers, which leads one down the path to a new crop of HomePod speakers and AirPod/Beats headphones, and gives credibility to the rumor that Apple was close to releasing over-the-ear headphones (AirPods Studio) sometime this year. Apple has been rumored to already be producing the new headphones at a plant in Vietnam.

More surprising is the elimination of all 3rd party speakers, as the speaker rumor mill has been suggesting a HomePod mini rather than a revamped high-end HomePod line-up, but pushing Apple users toward only Apple products, particularly those associated with subscription services will add to Apple’s service capture ratio and looking at the speaker line combined with a broader headphone line certainly keeps Apple-only products in contention with its former 3rd party suppliers. Assumedly the higher-end headphones will carry a higher margin and while volumes will be lower, it will certainly be better than losing a sale to a competitor and the potential for a new subscriber.

Amazon (AMZN) has been building momentum for Prime Day (10-13-20) since its inception on July 15, 2015 as a 20th birthday celebration for the company, and while Prime Day does not compare to other global shopping ‘events’ on a gross basis it does generate significant revenue which has been increasing each year. This year however is different from others in that the typical Prime Day is done in July, while this year’s has been moved to this month due to the COVID-19 pandemic, changing the seasonal position of the event.
Expectations remain high for this year’s Prime Day overall, as can be seen below (38% increase y/y), which seems a bit optimistic given the economic situation of many in the US and the other 17 countries that take part in Prime Day, but much will depend on how aggressive discounts will be this year. One positive point however is the number of Prime subscribers, which was over 150m as of the 1st of this year and that number has had more time this year to grow given the event delay, although the proximity to Black Friday is considered a negative by some.
According to a PC Mag survey 39% of Prime Day shoppers will be shopping for TVs and streaming devices, 34% for smart home devices, 31% for computer/components, 30% for tablets or readers, 24% for smartwatches or trackers, and 20% for gaming consoles, but given that this is an Amazon event, big sellers last year were the Amazon Echo Dot and the Amazon Fire TV Stick, will likely be aggressively priced again, with older Echo Dot models already on sale this year. Amazon is giving Prime members a special deal this year, offering a $10 Prime Day bonus if you spend $10 with a small domestic business before the event.
While Prime Day will likely offer consumers (members) some valuable deals, if one is shopping for TVs, Black Friday tends to be the time when the most TV set deals are available, and with this year’s more intense focus on on-line sales, we expect the competition to be intense. Rather than camp out in front of a Best Buy (BBY) or WalMart (WMT) all night, its going to be sitting in front of your computer or phone and digging out the best deals.

0 Comments

Apple Foldable

Speaking of Apple

Prime Day

Author

Archives

Categories