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Samsung Spectacular Super-Size Seasonal Screen Special

6/30/2023

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Samsung Spectacular Super-Size Seasonal Screen Special
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Write this down, 98Q80C.  It is the model number of Samsung’s (005930.KS) ‘almost’ released 98” Mini-LED/Quantum Dot 4K TV.  This monster (~4’ high x 7’ wide – you can fit a bit over three 55” TVs in that space!) includes all sorts of technology to enhance the picture regardless of what you might be watching and has sound object tracking that places sounds where they were positioned in the image, using Dolby (DLB) Atmos (hopefully you have the front, left, right, center, and to overhead speakers that Dolby requires).  But what really makes the 98Q80C unusual is the price.
When the 1st Samsung 98” Mini-LED/QD 8K set came out, it sold (in Korea) for $58,450 and the 4K equivalent sold for $35,160.  Last year the 98” 4K set sold (US) for $15,000, but this year, at least for the next 2 days and 18 hours, you can pick up this 28.5 ft2 baby for a mere $7,999…but wait, there’s more!  If you beat the deadline (pre-orders), Samsung will take off $1,000, bringing the price down to $6,999, and if you place the order at one of Samsung’s participating retailers, such as Best Buy (BBY), they will take another $500 off.  Along with the discounts, you get (hurry, only 2 days left!) a free, yes free, Q800C Soundbar ($1,000 value according to Samsung), free, yes free, installation ($120 value), and 0% financing with $0 down, plus Samsung’s Care+ extended coverage (value of $249.99 for this set for 1 year).
But seriously folks, Samsung is pushing this set, at least for the next 2 days, to build its presence in the 80+” TV market, which is expected to grow 24% this year, despite weak overall TV shipments and sales.  Samsung has the #1 position in this ultra-large market (40%+), and while the 80+” market is small in terms of unit volume (~2.8m units this year), the sales dollars and margins make it quite lucrative, even with the perks above.  We are not saying to dip into the kids’ education funds or take out payday loans, but if you were thinking about filling your living room wall with a 98” TV, strike while the iron is hot, the clock is ticking!
►Don’t forget that our TV pricing data suggests that while there might be price peaks and valleys for every TV set, the general trend is down as the number of days from release increases.  If you need it now, take advantage of this early discount.  If you are not in a hurry, new model pricing is typically the highest over the life of the Tv model.
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8K/4K Mini-LED/QD Price Chart - 85" Models By Year - Source: SCMR LLC, Company Data
Legal Mumbo-Jumbo - Note: We have absolutely no vested interest in Samsung or any other company mentioned and receive no compensation from any company for mentioning their name or product.  We mention specific models and pricing only as reference and make no judgement on the value of such purchases to consumers.  
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The Red Queen Effect

6/30/2023

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The Red Queen Effect
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As the recent release of ChatGPT by OpenAI (pvt) has propelled AI into the public spotlight, it has also put focus on the lack of legal precedent that is available to those who feel they have been materially harmed by ChatGPT and other public AI systems.  While a few such lawsuits have been resolved, many continue to wind their way through the US courts, looking for legal parameters to be set that can give both the ‘owners’ of AI systems and its users some ground rules.  A new class action lawsuit against OpenAI was filed in the Northern District of California US District Court that cites 15 violation counts, ranging from Violation of the Electronics Communications Privacy Act to ‘Unjust Enrichment’ and computer fraud.
The suit cites the “unlawful and harmful conduct’ of the Defendants (OpenAI) while developing, marketing, and operating their AI products (ChatGPT 3.5, 4.0, Dall-E, and Vall-E) by using stolen private information, including personally identifiable information, from hundreds of millions of internet users, including children of all ages, without their consent or knowledge.”  While the suit recognizes that said products ‘undoubtedly have the potential to do much good in the world, like aiding life-saving scientific research and ushering in discoveries that can improve the lives of everyday Americans”, it notes that OpenAI was originally founded as a non-profit research organization with a mandate to create AI that would be used to benefit humanity.  However in 2019 OpenAI restricted and formed a for-profit business to pursue commercial opportunities.
As part of the ChatGPT training process, the suit alleges that OpenAI secretly harvested massive amounts of personal data from the internet, including private information and private conversations, medical data, and information about children – essentially every piece of data exchanged on the internet it could take, without notifying owners or user of such information, much less with anyone’s permission.  The allegations go on to assert that OpenAI used this ‘stolen’ information, which included copyrighted material, to create its LLM (Large Language Model) and algorithms to generate a human-like language that could be used in a wide range of applications, with no additional safeguards.  As applications and products that incorporate such ‘stolen’ information are developed, OpenAI’s valuation increased to between $27b and $29b and has created an ‘economic dependency within our society’ as OpenAI products are embedded in other applications.
The idea of ‘web-scraping’, which violates the ‘Terms of Use’ for many websites has been litigated for years, usually resulting in commercial scrapers being forced to register as data brokers, which OpenAI has not done, and studies have valued an individual’s on-line information at between $15 and $40, although more specific on-line identity information can be sold (dark web) for over $1,000, and the suit goes on for many pages (159 in total) about how OpenAI has violated the rights of children.
The suit calls for an injunction, essentially a temporary freeze on commercial access to OpenAI products, the establishment of an independent body that would be responsible for approving the use of products before release, establishing ethical principles and guidelines, and implementing appropriate transparency concerning data collection, including the ability for users to opt-out of data collection.  Of course there is also the establishment of a monetary fund to compensate class members for OpenAI’s misconduct, statutory, punitive, and exemplary damages, and ”…reasonable attorneys’ fees”.
We expect that this suit will also wander through the courts for years without final rulings that might be used as actual case precedent, and that legal challenges, regardless of the outcome, will continue ad infinitum, but there is certainly a necessity to resolve such issues legally.  Right now, it is open season on data used for Ai training and as systems are developed that extend data parameters past the 2trillion level, almost all data sources will be harvested without regard for ownership rights.  Privacy issues aside, the implications for copyright protection and digital asset ownership are so vast that the over 300 years of written copyright law seems insignificant.  Time is of the essence.
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Figure 1 - The Red Queen Effect - Source: Sir John Tenniel (1820 – 1914), in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass And What Alice Found There” (1871)
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Dutch Treat for China?

6/30/2023

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Dutch Treat for China?
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​The Dutch government’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the details of the “Strategic Framework for Export Controls for the Semiconductor Industry” that were proposed on 12/1/2022.  The new controls go into effect on September 1 of this year.  The framework was put in place, according to the Dutch government, for the following reasons:
  1. To prevent a situation in which Dutch goods contribute to undesirable end use, such as military deployment or weapons of mass destruction.
  2. To prevent undesirable long-term strategic dependencies.
  3. To preserve the Netherlands’ technological leadership position.
The rules require potential semiconductor exporters to apply for an export license, which will be evaluated on the basis of the above three strategic goals and an assessment will be made as to whether any of the goals may be jeopardized.  However these measures are highly specific to technologies in the semiconductor manufacturing cycle in which the Netherlands holds a unique, leading position, such as the most advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography and deposition.
The specific products cited are:
EUV Pellets & Pellet production equipment – EUV pellets are small amounts of tin that are vaporized to create the EUV light that is of the correct wavelength and intensity for EUV lithography.
Lithography steppers with a minimum feature size of 45nm or less
ALD (Atomic Layer Deposition) tools using Aluminum precursors and Titanium Aluminum Carbide – These materials are gases that are exposed to the substrate and react to form a single atomic layer that does not react to the high intensity light used in lithography and is hard enough to allow for smaller features.
Epitaxy tools based on the deposition of Carbon-doped Silicon-Germanium – This is a process where the substrate is heated and source material is vaporized, which allows it to react with the substrate a form a thin layer of material on the substrate.  Doped Silicon Germanium is used to create transistor base layers that can operate at higher frequency that more typical silicon.
Void-free PVD (Plasma Vapor Deposition) tools that are able to operate in space less than 25nm – PVD tools used is small spaces can create voids or gaps in deposition films that allow etch material to damage other layers.  Void-free tools are designed to use higher power plasmas or dual plasma systems that clean the substrate before deposition.
All software or technology needed to operate or develop such tools.
These specifics are technical, the apply primarily to ASML (ASML), the sole producer of high NA (Numerical Aperture) EUV tools for semiconductor production.  High NA means the tool can collect and focus more light in a small area, which is necessary to produce product below 13nm.  Nikon (7731.JP) also produces EUV tools (<10% share) but focuses on low-NA for the production of product at 13nm or above.  The new regulations include DUV systems (also produced by Canon (7751.JP)), which would include ASML’s Twinscan NXT 2000 and similar new products, while ASML’s EUV systems are already under licensing restrictions.  ASML issued a press release indicating that the company did not expect the new measures to have an impact on the financial guidance that was released in November of last year, and that the company’s long-term scenarios are based on global industry demand and technology trends rather than detailed locations assumptions, meaning sales to China, and China was not named in any of the government documents. 
The Chinese embassy in the Netherlands responded to the newly documented rules as an ‘abuse of export control measures” that violate trade rules and the Chinese government will implement new laws on foreign relations on Saturday that “safeguard sovereignty and rejuvenate the nation”, allowing the Communist Party leadership to set foreign policy rather than the government, and holds anyone committing acts that are detrimental to Chinese national interests legally responsible.  Last month the Chinese government banned Boise, Idaho based Micron Technology (MU) from participating in critical infrastructure projects in China, such as telecom infrastructure, networks, and power grids, as they pose a serious network security risk.
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