There are thought to be 5.56 billion active mobile phones across the globe, and almost every one is Wi-Fi capable.  There are billions of other Wi-Fi enabled devices, ranging from laptops to smart TVs and there are over 15 billion IoT devices connected to the internet, many of which use Wi-Fi to make that connection.  With cellular users numbering a mere 6.4 billion, Wi-Fi is the most ubiquitous network protocol globally, yet we rarely pay any attention to this technology that supports industrial, commercial, and residential users 24/7, unless we hear the words, “Wi-Fi is down!”, at which point panic sets in for most users, along with either a call to tech support or having to go into the cabinet under the TV to see if the router lights are flashing.
Those boxes, and their larger counterparts in commercial systems, grab the text messages, e-mails, pictures, videos, and data that you send, right out of the air.  They package each bit, and send it out into the world over cable, fiber, or cell.  Cellular folks laugh at Wi-Fi’s limited range (see below), but cellular signals, particularly 5G cellular, are quite easily blocked by building structures and geographical obstacles, while Wi-Fi is designed to be a low-power system used as a local network.  The comparison is apples to oranges now, but next year things will get better for Wi-Fi users as Wi-Fi 7 standards will be finalized and the potential for substantial improvements in Wi-Fi will be underway.

Typically, a new standard means that equipment manufacturers will begin adding Wi-Fi 7 capabilities to new models as they are released, however some CE manufacturers have taken the preliminary Wi-Fi 7 protocol and built those capabilities into new devices.  15 smartphone models have been released this year having Wi-Fi 7 capabilities, one back in December of last year, all of which are hoping that the protocol does not change radically from the pre-ratified standard on which they have based their phones.  We do note that Qualcomm (QCOM) released its Fast-Connect 7800 Wi-Fi 7 chipset in May 2022, which will likely be the basis for most of the early devices that have Wi-Fi 7 capabilities.  There are also a few early Wi-Fi 7 routers from TP-Link (pvt), Netgear (NTGR), Asus (2357.TT), and Linksys (2354.TT) that support the pre-ratified Wi-Fi 7 standard.
All of that said, how is Wi-Fi 7 going to benefit the user?  Wi-Fi 7 is faster, actually much faster than current (Wi-Fi 6 & 6e) Wi-Fi protocols.  Wi-Fi 6 & 6e have a maximum data rate of 9.6GB/sec, while Wi-Fi 7 has a max rate of 46GB/sec, almost 5 times faster, although those are rates that are rarely reached in normal use.  Current Wi-Fi divides available spectrum into what are called ‘sub-carriers’, using a technique called orthogonal frequency-division multiple access (OFDMA – This will not be on the test…).  Each user is assigned a subset of the subsets, which allows users to share channels and bandwidth.  Wi-Fi 7 will expand the size of the channels (2x), which has not changed in over 10 years, and allows all three available frequency bands to be ‘linked’ to allow for higher throughput and lower latency.  The new standard also allows Wi-Fi 7 to carry frames (packets of data with transmission information included) that are 12 bits rather than the 10 that are used now, which leads to a 20% gain in data rates.
Of course, while this sounds impressive, there are issues, mostly regulatory, as no regions in the US support the three-channel approach that Wi-Fi 7 uses.  The FCC is currently working on a plan for allocating the channels and bandwidth in the 6GHz band, which does not require a license, so once that plan is completed, network operators will be able to begin the use of Wi-Fi 7 for customers and equipment manufacturers, seeing a less risky path toward building in Wi-Fi 7 capabilities.  That said, changes in important standards like Wi-Fi take time to propagate through Wi-Fi infrastructure, especially when they are as significant as the changes between Wi-Fi 6e and Wi-Fi 7. 
More complicated antenna systems, potential interference, and even higher power consumption issues must be balanced by designers of Wi-Fi 7 equipment, so we keep our timeline for widespread Wi-Fi 7 adoption a bit more extended than industry members might propose.  However, we are still optimistic about the change and how it will be accepted by consumers, although they will have to buy new routers to take advantage of the upgrades.  There are many out there that will ask the question, “What is Wi-Fi 7”, “What’s a router?” and “How much is this going to cost?”, which will slow early adoption to those that recognize or need the benefits.  The rest will be deluged by carriers offering free Wi-Fi router upgrades if they sign up as a new customer. 

​In or note earlier this week we mentioned that two of the three telecommunication carriers in South Korea have had their 28GHz (mmWave) band licenses revoked by the Ministry of Science for non-fulfillment of contracted obligations., and we mentioned that the 3rd carrier, SK Telecom (017670.KS) was likely to lose its 28GHz band license by the end of the year.  As it turns out on May 31 SK Telecom will be added to the group as the Ministry of Science has found that the company was only able to connect 1,650 devices to its 28Gh. Network, falling considerably short of the 15,000 it had promised almost 5 years ago.  SK Telecom responded, “After allocating the 28GHz frequency band, we have been making continuous efforts to create an ultra-high frequency band ecosystem and discover business models (BMs). I'm sorry it wasn't there”.  As South Korea has been a leader in developing other telecommunication modalities (2G/3G/4G) it is surprising that the country has been unable to continue that leadership in 5G.

When it comes to telecommunications, South Korea is near the top of the list.  The country adopted 2G in 1996, a bit earlier than in the US, followed in 2003 by the adoption of 3G, and was the first country to adopt 4G in late 2009.  5G however, was more of a promise, and while South Korea was still among the earliest, it seems that expectations for 5G across the country have not been met.  When 5G was promoted, ahead of its official release in South Korea, both the government and the country’s three telcos set consumer anticipation with a number of promises for 5G that included speeds of 20x that of 4G, 10x lower latency, and 100x better access.  These were lofty goals, but coming from a country that has led the way for telecommunication progress, such were not impossible.
Moving ahead to the current day, the scorecard on those promises leaves a bit to be desired.  The average 5G download speed in South Korea (October ’22) is 896.1 Mbps, and to put that in perspective, it is 5.9x the average for 4G across the country.  The upload speed average is 93.16 Mbps, only 2.8x that for 4G.  4G latency in South Korea averages ~47ms, which would imply 5G should be under 5ms, which unfortunately is not the case, as it averages ~23ms, although that is a substantial improvement.  However things come apart a bit more when it comes to coverage, which is currently ~33.1%, a bit less than the 100x promised, although with over 99% of the country having 4G availability, the promised improvement was destined to fail from the start, and most of the 5G installations in South Korea are piggybacked on 4G infrastructure and are not standalone 5G installs.
One additional problem that faces the 5G promises made by South Korean telcos is that two of the three carrier in the country have already had their licenses for 28Ghz (mmWave) rescinded, and the third is expected to lose its license for mmWave by the end of the year.  As none of the telcos (nor the government itself) supporting mmWave, the speed boost that would come from averaging in mmWave does not look like it will happen anytime in the near future, which means the incremental speed improvements originally promised will likely not happen in the near-term (or mid-term).
While relative to US telcos, who are always in a ‘battle of promises’ that never quite materialize, South Korea’s reputation for telecommunication innovation would have suggested a better outcome thus far, and while the South Korean government was a willing participant in promising subscribers the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, the South Korean Fair Trade Commission is considering penalizing the three telcos for violating the country’s advertising laws for not living up to their own expectations.

We had made a forecast for Chinese smartphone shipments for the 4th quarter and while the December numbers are not yet in, the official Chinese smartphone shipments for the last two months are 47.16m units, surprisingly 15.6% higher than our estimate, which pushes us to raise our December shipment number from 19.4m units to 22m units.  If this is correct (or close), that would put the full year at 265,65m units, down 24.3% y/y, and the 4th quarter up 16.4% q/q but still down 32.0% y/y, and above our most recent 252m unit estimate.  Most recently we have seen a full year tally of Chinese smartphone shipments totaling 287m units, which would imply a 44m unit shipment month in December, making it the best month this year, by 33%, so we are wanting to understand what the basis for that estimate was, given that our 11 month data is based on information provided by the Chinese government, which, if anything, leans a bit to the high side.
Over the last year 5G shipments in China have tracked fairly closely to overall shipments, representing between 85.1% and 72.2% of total shipments, although the spread narrowed considerably during 2H of 2022.  For the full year, using a proportional 16.97m 5G units in December, we estimate 5G shipments for the full 2022 year to be 207.6m units, or 78.1% of total shipments, down 22.0% y/y, the first year 5G shipments have declined since 2019 when China began releasing such data.  Given the current share, which we expect to expand a bit further this year, we expect 5G shipments in China to be a function of the overall health of the Chinese smartphone market, with far less dependency on the growth of 5G installations across the country than in previous years and more on China’s own macro environment. 
Strict COVID restrictions slowed 5G deployment progress across China last year, and with many of those restrictions being lifted, deployments will likely pick-up, but we are quite skeptical as to the coverage data that the Chinese government has been promoting, and if the data in the US is any example, it bears little practicality to consumers.  Typically many cities that are claimed as ‘covered’ have very spotty 5G service and while the coverage maps look well filled, the detail is far less so, with statistics used more for promotion and politics than actual consumer results.
Chinese brands continue to hold the major share of the Chinese domestic market (84.9%) and while it has deteriorated a bit over the last 4 years (86.5% last year), incursions, particularly by Apple (AAPL), have made little impact on overall domestic brand share in the Chinese smartphone market.  With Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) the only major smartphone brand with a very minor share in China, we expect relatively little change unless Samsung continues to expand and market its foldable line on the Mainland, which, while facing domestic competition, seems to be considered among the most prestigious smartphone devices with Chinese consumers, along with Apple.  However price sensitive buyers do have domestic foldable alternatives and there are still many pockets of nationalistic pride that would push marginal buyers to domestic brands, so for the 2023 year, we expect only a minor reduction in domestic share.
All in, it was a difficult year for CE in China, and smartphones in particular, but while we are careful to temper any enthusiasm against both a poor macro-economic situation on the Mainland, and a festering anti-China manufacturing posture for many global companies, we do take heart in that in recent months, while poor in terms of y/y performance, shipments have been, at the least, relatively stable, which we expect to continue into 1Q.  The Chinese smartphone market is maturing, and with that comes slower growth and more macro affectations, which certainly seems to be the case in recent months.  As that continues we expect the Chinese smartphone market to have basically the same competitive and economic characteristics of the global smartphone market and track more closely to the global markets each year.  That said, Chinese brands have the advantage of lower cost, but also face some political issues, such as those in India, that can offset those cost advantages.  It is up to both the Chinese government and Chinese smartphone brands as to how those issues will play out this year, and over the last year both did little to smooth those relationships that can help Chinese brands gain share outside of the Mainland.  Maybe 2023 will be different, although it is still hard to be overly optimistic.

For the last two months we have expressed some concern over the slowing rate of growth seen in some of the indicators we use to gather insight into 5G infrastructure development, having seen 5G smartphone model growth of only 1.3% and 0.6% in October and November.  While that concern was based on the overall global macro environment, which would lead one to expect at least some slowdown, we note that smartphone model growth increased in December by 2.8%, and while that is still below December’s m/m growth in previous years, it is a step in the right direction, with slower growth expected as the 5G space matures.   
For the 2022 year 5G smartphone model releases grew 47.9%, still a bit below trend line, while total 5G devices grew 43.0%, with vendor count increasing by 24.4%, as overall device growth moving back above trend line in 4Q.  CPE growth was particularly strong in December, up 11.8%, with the full year seeing 30.5% y/y growth for that category, which we use as a proxy for 5G’s expansion from a primarily mobile technology to one that compares to other fixed customer technologies such as cable or fiber.  All in, given the macro environment we believe 5G performed well in almost all categories, especially relative to mobile phone growth or lack thereof.  In 2023, we expect 5Ggrowth to continue but expect y/y comparisons to be reduced as the industry matures, especially form factor growth.  Our focus will be on device count, 5G share of the smartphone market, and CPE growth, which we believe will best reflect the state of the 5G ecosystem.

In November of 2021 we noted that AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) had agreed to defer the launch of 5G services on C-Band spectrum (3.7 to 3.98 GHz), a portion of the 5G spectrum that they acquired during an earlier auction, until early January 2022.  The postponement was at the request of the FAA who claims that the new service could interfere with altimeters used on aircraft.   This comes in contrast to the FCC examination and approval of the band, finding no evidence to support the FAA’s claims, making sure that a wide spectrum guard band is left unused adjacent to the C-band spectrum.  That guard band is twice the width requested by the airlines to make absolutely sure the altimeters are protected.
What made that a bit unusual is that the C-band spectrum was already being used in ~40 countries for 5G, with no reported altimeter problems, while at the time the FAA was quoted saying, “Tick, tick, tick” in a Tweet, alluding to the eventual disaster they expected to occur, which has riled many, especially as the FAA acknowledged that it had no proven evidence of interference from C-band operation and continued to use contacts in Congress to wage a battle against the FCC’s ‘no issue’ ruling.  While the FAA continued to push for a block to 5G C-band deployment near airports, they released a bulletin in November ‘21 suggesting that “radio altimeter manufacturers, aircraft manufacturers, and operators voluntarily provide to federal authorities specific information related to altimeter design and functionality, specifics on deployment and usage of radio altimeters in aircraft, and that they test and assess their equipment in conjunction with federal authorities.” In other words, lets upgrade those altimeters, despite the fact that the same C-band issues had been under review for over 4 years.
It now seems that the FAA has issued a new directive that requires both cargo and passenger airplanes in the US to install 5G C-band tolerant radio altimeters or an approved RF filter by February 24, 2024, which will allow AT&T, Verizon, and other potential 5G carriers to bring 5G services to full power near airports, something which they have been unable to do under the 2021 stand-off agreement, but the new directive also contained the FAA’s estimate of what it would cost to modify planes under the new rules.  That cost is ~$26m to outfit 180 airplanes that need new altimeters and 820 that will need RF filters, out of a total fleet of 7,993 planes, far less than the direct and indirect cost of resources used to promote the media battle  that has lasted over a year and a half between the FAA and the FCC.  Some have even suggested that AT&T and Verizon would have paid the $26m for the upgrades out-of-pocket if they had known of the cost, or it could have been included in the price of the spectrum bid at auction if it had been communicated by the FAA (the auction bid for the C-band was $81.2 billion).
Once again political infighting based on political agendas between government agencies cost the taxpayers money and resources, and slowed the progress of technology improvements, with the low level of communications between agencies that have a common focus generating headlines that both confuse consumers and create governmental distrust.  While expanding 5G services might not be an essential key to economic growth in the US, it does have implications across a broad spathe of consumer devices and the deployment of 5G in the US will serve to enhance many existing services and produce income for a wide variety of companies, including the Treasury of the United States.  If carriers are unsure that they will be able to deploy purchased spectrum, the value of that spectrum will decline, and given that the 1st C-band auction, which took place in 2020, generated $81b in gross bids, those dollars will pay for lots of projects that will benefit consumers.
Mandates (according to usa.gov)
FCC - The goal of the Commission is to promote connectivity and ensure a robust and competitive market.
FAA – The goal of the FAA is to provide the safest, most efficient aerospace system in the world.
​

Last month we expressed some concern over the slowing rate of growth in 5G smartphones after seeing a 1.3% m/m increase in available or announced smartphones.  That trend continued in November with 5G smartphone growth registering only 0.6% m/m in November, and while still up 43.8% YTD, the last two months were the slowest growth months this year, as shown in Figure 8, with unit volume growth falling below trend line, after 5 months of above-the-line growth.  We attribute the slowdown to the overall global economic picture, particularly issues in China that have further slowed smartphone shipments.  On a more positive note, CPE devices, an indicator of 5G’s adoption in the FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) market, increased 7.0% m/m, the greatest m/m gain all year, which we see as a positive toward the use of 5G outside of mobile networks. 
We expect December will see a slight increase in the number of 5G smartphone offerings, but we expect lesser growth in 5G smartphones in 2023, a bit due to the economic conditions noted earlier, and more as the share of 5G smartphones against the total number of smartphone offerings is now over 50%.   As that share continues to rise in 2023, we expect more modest growth but will be more focused on the growth in CPE as it is imperative for 5G to become available to businesses and consumers at fixed locations.  We believe CPE device growth will be incremental data in forecasting how quickly carriers will deploy 5G as more than just a mobile transport system.  It’s expanded use in FWA will encourage carriers to build out additional service points to feed CPE demand and give 5G an additional growth path beyond mobile networks.

convenience or for creating a sense of superiority, they come in and out of favor like social media stars, with some lasting weeks and others more firmly engrained in societal culture.  MIMO has been around as we know it today since the 1990’s but over the last few years has become a buzzword used in 5G commentary, and while we will not go into the extensive detail that can surround MIMO technology, we see it as an important part of understanding 5G basics for investors.
5G has brought buzzwords like MIMO and Beam-Forming to the forefront, and while they have a variety of meanings according to those in the industry and can be used to denote some rather broad technical systems, , investors should known at least the basics to better understand the ins and outs of 5G and digital communication.  2G systems were typically based on TDM (Time Division Multiplexing) where two data or voice streams were sent over one channel by separating each conversation into ‘chunks’ that are sent over the channel in alternating sequence, essentially taking turns, with a synchronization channel making sure the receiver puts them back correctly.  3G is based on spread spectrum technology, where the data is broken into ‘chunks’, with the chunks being spread across frequencies rather than by time, and reassembled by the receiver, making them less susceptible to interference.
4G uses  OFDM (Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) that encodes the data on a number of carrier streams at different frequencies that carry the data in parallel streams.  They are reassembled at the receiver using sophisticated algorithms and help to diminish what is called multipath interference, where some data ‘chunks’ that make up a signal take a slightly different path than others, due to atmospheric issues or other reflective surfaces, and reach the receiver at different times.  5G is a similar technology that uses higher frequencies that allow greater bandwidth. 
As these technologies developed commercially, antennas, which were typically a device able to receive a broad spectrum of signals, such as those described above.  By expanding the number of antennae and focusing each on more specific frequencies, the accuracy of transmission is increased, and the ability of retransmission (tower to tower) is also increased, closer to a mesh system where all points would talk to all other points.  MIMO stands for Multiple In Multiple Out on a general basis, and was an outgrowth of the evolution from 2G’s 1T1R (One transmitter, One Receiver) set-up that eventually became 2T2R and now 4T4R, describing the number of transmitting and receiving antennas used in base stations.    Wireless LANs use MIMO, which allows for more data streams and therefore faster throughput and some smartphones have moved from 1x1 (one sending antenna and one receiving antenna) to 2x2, with an increasing number of high-end smartphones now including 4x4 MIMO internal systems, which should give them a transmission speed advantage over less sophisticated smartphones as long as the carrier is using MIMO.
As can be seen in Figure 4, the latest configuration takes MIMO one step further adding multiple antennae configurations that multiply the ability of such systems to give data multiple receiving points to accept data, giving  such systems a better chance that the data ‘chunks’ will arrive intact at at least one of the multiple receiving antennae before being reassembled.  This coupled with the increased bandwidth, speed, and lower latency of 5G continue to improve voice and data transmission and work toward a migration toward higher 5G frequencies such as those used for mmWave.  As mmWave signals are more subject to distance and blockage issues, the use of MMIMO helps to create multiple paths for transmission over such systems and will bebefit users as the technology develops further.
There is a cost to pushing MMIMO down to the mobile level, and that is the increased cost of multiple antennae systems and the physical space they take up in smartphones, which are extremely space constrained.  That said, as the trend toward multiple cameras slows, freeing up valuable internal real estate MIMO phones will migrate further down the smartphone value chain and costs will decline, the trade-off being one less camera, that is rarely used, against faster and more reliable communication, which is what smartphones are supposed to be all about…

Mobile communication has become an increasingly important part of human existence, with mobile data traffic growing at a 27.2% CAGR[1] between 2019 and 2028.  That traffic will increasingly be using 5G technology, and while this year saw a slowdown in 5G expansion on a global scale, as an inflationary cycle stunted carrier expansion, over that same period 5G mobile data will see a CAGR of 67.4%.  While, as consumers, we are used to the characteristics of 2G, 3G, 4G, and more recently 5G mobile communication, those same transport protocols and networks can also be used for FWA, or Fixed Wireless Access, the wireless equivalent to copper or fiber typically used to connect residential or commercial customers.
FWA, in most cases, is based on 3G or 4G technology, with relatively new 5G services piggybacked on existing infrastructure (NSA 5G), but as 5G transitions to SA 5G (Standalone) network architecture, its advantages over 4G LTE become more apparent and its applications expand.  At the same time FWA applications will also transition to 5G, adding to the benefits of FWA, and as can be seen in Figure 2, FWA as a percentage of total data traffic, grows.  We note that while the growth of Mobile data traffic for the combined 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G modalities is declining, much of that comes from the elimination of 2G and 3G technology and the adoption of 5G on a global basis, given the much higher data rates that 5G is capable of.  That becomes evident when looking at carrier data in the US, where T-Mobile (TMUS) saw its user base for its FWA service reach over 1.5m users in 2Q this year[2], for a ~72% CAGR, while AT&T (T) saw 4.7% growth and Comcast (CMCSA) saw only 0.6% during the same period, both of whom offer fiber or cable only service.
There are issues that can hinder the use of 5G for FWA, particularly the necessity for higher tower density for 5G, which is certainly an issue for carriers, and this has even limited T-Mobile’s seemingly rapid growth of its FWA services.  Growing the availability of 5G FWA, meaning carefully mapping tower building against potential customers, and limiting new FWA customers to match available local bandwidth, is necessary so as not to reduce the benefits of 5G’s low latency and high speed transport.  Therefore, we expect FWA, especially the 5G component of FWA, to grow at a more measured rate, but given the benefits of 5G technology, and its ability to reach customers where cable or fiber is not economically feasible, we expect FWA to continue to grow both in its user base and in the percentage and net amount of data traffic it can move.  Local and global economics will certainly have an effect on FWA growth, but in the long-run we believe the benefits of 5G FWA will allow it to continue to gain an increasing user base, especially in areas where only one hard-wired carrier is offered.


[1] 2019 – 2028 – Source: Ericsson Report 2022

[2] The service was initiated in early 2021.

5G growth continued in October, across  number of metrics, including new 5G phone models, however the rate of 5G smartphone growth slowed significantly in October to 1.3% m/m, the same growth rate as seen in February, usually the lowest point in the year.  While the obvious broad CE slowdown and the continuation of weakness seen in the smartphone space have taken their toll on 5G phone growth, we were surprised that there was any growth in new 5G offerings at all in October.  All in, it was a better than expected month for 5G but we temper our 5G expectations for the holiday season, both here and in China (January 22, 2023).