If you like 4K TV, you have to like 8K TV
According to IHS, you should think twice about buying that 4K TV this holiday season, as if you can wait until 2019, 8K TV will be in ‘takeoff’ mode. While only 1,000 8K sets are expected to be sold this year (worldwide), IHS expects 300,000 units in 2018, and 1m units in 2019, although when you consider that something around 300m TVs will be shipped around that time, the excitement slows a bit. Panel producers AU Optronics (AUO), Samsung Display (pvt) and LG Display (LPL) will produce 8K panels this year between 65” and 98”, in order for consumers to complete their man caves. To gain just a bit of perspective on what 8K is, the table below makes some basic comparisons.
Simplistic Comparison of TV Resolution
Figure 2 - Simplistic Comparison of TV Resolution - Source: Various
More important than pixel comparisons, which show huge pixel count increases, is the availability of content at each level and whether broadcasters are adopting the format. Broadcasters have a bandwidth issue, as they need to move content data fast enough that images do not appear ‘blocky’ or frozen. With each increase in picture resolution, the bandwidth needed for such transmission also increases, and while the available bandwidth ‘pipe’ continues to grow over time, the changes to broadcast plants for such upgrades can be quite expensive, especially for smaller broadcasters. Broadcasters use various compression schemes to lower their bandwidth requirements, which cause ‘loss’ of picture quality when decompressed at the set level, which can vary significantly between TV brands, but the real question is, who is pushing the envelope? Certainly not the broadcasters, who now not only have to face higher bandwidth requirements, but also have to produce a series of new broadcast ‘variants’ so you can watch TV on your tablet or smartphone.
The driver here is, and always will be TV brands, who need a differentiator in a highly competitive and rapidly maturing market. Consumers are shown beautiful images in the store, being touted the high quality of whatever the ‘soup of the day’ engages salesmen and management, yet the content available tends to fall way behind the equipment. Further complicating the mix are variations to TV formats or even different names used by manufacturers for equivalent formats. Much 4K format content is being supplied by streaming services, which is a new paradigm in the TV space that the much slower moving broadcast space is just getting used to. This moves the burden of bandwidth to you, as consumers will need far greater bandwidth to watch streaming native 4K TV than previous formats (“…loading…”), and these streaming sources must be contracted for individually, at least until the broadcast space can upgrade in a meaningful way to the 4K format. What about buying 4k movies? Yes, more titles become available each day (can’t wait for “Sausage Party” in 4K), but not all 4K content is ‘playable’ on all 4K TVs, a side note that is rarely mentioned when you are buying a new TV.
We note that this is a very simplistic explanation of the potential implications of these format changes, and it makes us a little jumpy when the next format change is indicated to be only three years away, considering the industry is still trying to figure out the last one. The chart above shows what are essentially 20-year cycles for previous format changes, but shortens that to six years for 8K. While there will always be buyers for very high-end TVs, regardless of the format or price, the real test is content, and those with significant 3D video collections will remember well that it might be a bit better to move more slowly than TV brands might desire.
According to IHS, you should think twice about buying that 4K TV this holiday season, as if you can wait until 2019, 8K TV will be in ‘takeoff’ mode. While only 1,000 8K sets are expected to be sold this year (worldwide), IHS expects 300,000 units in 2018, and 1m units in 2019, although when you consider that something around 300m TVs will be shipped around that time, the excitement slows a bit. Panel producers AU Optronics (AUO), Samsung Display (pvt) and LG Display (LPL) will produce 8K panels this year between 65” and 98”, in order for consumers to complete their man caves. To gain just a bit of perspective on what 8K is, the table below makes some basic comparisons.
Simplistic Comparison of TV Resolution
Figure 2 - Simplistic Comparison of TV Resolution - Source: Various
More important than pixel comparisons, which show huge pixel count increases, is the availability of content at each level and whether broadcasters are adopting the format. Broadcasters have a bandwidth issue, as they need to move content data fast enough that images do not appear ‘blocky’ or frozen. With each increase in picture resolution, the bandwidth needed for such transmission also increases, and while the available bandwidth ‘pipe’ continues to grow over time, the changes to broadcast plants for such upgrades can be quite expensive, especially for smaller broadcasters. Broadcasters use various compression schemes to lower their bandwidth requirements, which cause ‘loss’ of picture quality when decompressed at the set level, which can vary significantly between TV brands, but the real question is, who is pushing the envelope? Certainly not the broadcasters, who now not only have to face higher bandwidth requirements, but also have to produce a series of new broadcast ‘variants’ so you can watch TV on your tablet or smartphone.
The driver here is, and always will be TV brands, who need a differentiator in a highly competitive and rapidly maturing market. Consumers are shown beautiful images in the store, being touted the high quality of whatever the ‘soup of the day’ engages salesmen and management, yet the content available tends to fall way behind the equipment. Further complicating the mix are variations to TV formats or even different names used by manufacturers for equivalent formats. Much 4K format content is being supplied by streaming services, which is a new paradigm in the TV space that the much slower moving broadcast space is just getting used to. This moves the burden of bandwidth to you, as consumers will need far greater bandwidth to watch streaming native 4K TV than previous formats (“…loading…”), and these streaming sources must be contracted for individually, at least until the broadcast space can upgrade in a meaningful way to the 4K format. What about buying 4k movies? Yes, more titles become available each day (can’t wait for “Sausage Party” in 4K), but not all 4K content is ‘playable’ on all 4K TVs, a side note that is rarely mentioned when you are buying a new TV.
We note that this is a very simplistic explanation of the potential implications of these format changes, and it makes us a little jumpy when the next format change is indicated to be only three years away, considering the industry is still trying to figure out the last one. The chart above shows what are essentially 20-year cycles for previous format changes, but shortens that to six years for 8K. While there will always be buyers for very high-end TVs, regardless of the format or price, the real test is content, and those with significant 3D video collections will remember well that it might be a bit better to move more slowly than TV brands might desire.
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