Samsung Display (pvt) is the leader in the foldable smartphone display market, while they were not the first to release a foldable display, the competitor that beat them is no longer in business.  That said, the number of OLED display producers and phone brands that are producing displays or offering foldable smartphones has increased considerably since the initial releases back in 2019, at which point there were two brands Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Huawei (pvt).  While Motorola and others offer a number of models Samsung and Hiawei are still the volume (units) leaders and continue to battle to maintain (Samsun) or gain (Huawei) share in this relatively new market.

In September of 2024 Huawei released the Mate XT Ultimate, a tri-fold smartphone, that pushed the competitive envelope further.  Not to be outdone, it seems that Samsung has been discussing production plans with suppliers for its first tri-fold phone, which is expected to go into production in April.  While all components have not been finalized yet, scheduling is being discussed in order to make sure the components, a number of which are new, will be available to assemblers when necessary. It is expected that Samsung will produce `~200,000 units this year, an exceptionally small number compared to the 5m expected for this year’s Z Flip and Z Fold, which together represent less than 3% of Samsung’s smartphone shipments.  Samsung is also said to be developing a thinner version of the Z Flip 7 known as the Z Flip FE, a follow up to the Z Flip SE released this year, with total production, including previous models of ~7m units.
If Samsung is expecting to sell only 200,000 tri-fold smartphones this year, it indicates that Samsung is releasing the device in order to stay abreast of Huawei in terms of technology, but is less focused on generating sales, as both internal and external resources will be used  for the tri-fold device, potentially diluting the development of the higher volume Z Flip and Fold.  This comes at a time when the high price of foldable smartphones is slowing the segment’s growth and narrowing the customer base.  It is understandable that Samsung and others feel the need to complete by, at the least, matching existing technology, but the point of selling smartphones is to make money, which means the focus of any foldable device development program should be to bring down the price, rather than releasing a device to maintain bragging rights.
Samsung’s tri-fold device is expected to be just under 10” when open, while the Huawei device is 10.1” and the Z Fold FE is 10.6mm when folded while Chinese brands are between 9mm and 10mm when folded, so Samsung is not ‘breaking through’ specifications with its devices, it is just keeping pace.  With the relatively poor sales of the Z Fold SE (<100,000 units cumulative), this game is not bringing in new, high-volume customers, its saving face.  Instead of putting out a ‘me too’ product, we believe Samsung would be far better off skipping the tri-fold smartphone and working toward a 4-segment device, which would take a 6” (diagonal smartphone and create an unfolded display almost 6” high and 10.6” wide.  Yes, it would need four hinges and would be about 13mm thick, or slightly over ½ inch when folded, but it would open to the size of a medium to large size tablet.  Forget the copy and take a step ahead.

Google (GOOG) has now (almost) joined the list of smartphone brands that have released foldable smartphones, with the announcement of the Google Pixel Fold, the company’s first foldable model.  With Samsung on its 4th yearly iteration, and foldables from 7 other major smartphone brands, Google, and Apple (AAPL) were among the few that have not joined the foldable craze.  The Pixel Fold itself, is as close as one might come to a Galaxy Z Fold 4 clone, with only fractional differences in size and features, and, not unsurprisingly, the same price as the Z Fold 4, although if you pre-order, you can get a Google watch for free.
As the Pixel Fold is still to be delivered there is little real-world data to see how consumers find the software and applications, but there is one feature that seems somewhat noteworthy.  When using the main screen to make a presentation, the presenter is able to see the same images on the back screen, giving the ability to make sure the verbiage is in sync with the display presentation.  It’s a simple application, but a helpful one that gives some indication that Google is thinking more about applications than hardware, which is likely a better direction for them to go, rather than battle Samsung point for point.
Growth expectations are considerable for foldable smartphones this year, with estimates ranging between 30% and 51% growth in unit’s y/y, but the absolute numbers are still relatively small, and even smaller looking when compared to the overall smartphone market.  Even at the top end of the growth estimates, foldable smartphone unit volume is likely to be less than 2%, but with the average smartphone selling for ~$300, foldables sell at a huge premium.  Samsung Electronics, who has been the leader in the foldable smartphone space for years, had an over 80% share last year and with such premium pricing, and a weak smartphone market, we expect more of the same this year, and likely a new model (aside from the Z Fold/Flip 5 series) for the holidays, which will reinvigorate the hardware competition between brands,  and potentially give those who have passed on foldables thus far, a reason to become more interested.

Foldable are not new anymore.  Having been technically available since 10/31/2018[1] and in real production in September 2019[2], there have been at least 30 foldable smartphone models and a number of other ‘foldable’ display devices.  That said, there have been a vast number of prototypes, demos, and ‘concept’ foldables shown at a never ending parade of conferences and expositions, only a few of which have ever seen retail shelves.  That said, consumers have become used to the idea of foldable displays, and with the improvements that have been made in both the displays themselves and the hinge and other mechanisms needed to make them operate correctly, that fear of spending all that money on a device that is going to fall apart quickly seems to have dissipated.
As smartphone component manufacturers became more adept at creating those intricate mechanisms that help foldables to open an close without scoring a line across the screen, they began to understand that as flexible OLED screen technology continued to develop, they could think about rolling a display on a spool inside a device and unrolling it when a larger screen was desired.  Many smartphone brands have shown demos of such devices, including smartphones, tablets, and laptops, and with the start of Mobile World Congress this week, there have been a few more that have made the tech press rounds.
Lenovo (992.HK) showed a particularly interesting device, a 12” laptop (diagonal) that could be expanded to 15.3”, and while that might not seem a big change in size, it is a ~65% increase in display surface area.   As seen below, the device looks a bit strange when expanded as the screen expands vertically, but Lenovo said the idea comes from users as the expanded screen can fit two 9:16 aspect ration images, the format for most videos.  The screen expands mechanically through a motor as the user presses a button and the system adjusts the screen resolution as the size changes. 
There is no timetable for the commercialization of such a device from Lenovo and earlier prototypes have been around for a while, but one has to give credit for Lenovo coming up with an idea that has practical value in the real world, as opposed to the many demos we have seen that are essential there to prove that engineers can prove a point.  The most successful CE products are those that make life easier for consumers, and we can see how such a device, especially in a cramped location such as a plane, might be useful.  Perhaps we won’t buy the first iteration, letting the mechanics settle in for a generation, but it certainly is a thoughtful use of rollable technology.


[1] Royole (pvt) Flexpai developers model

[2] Samsung Galaxy Fold

​We have mentioned Samsung Display’s dominance in the foldable OLED display market a number of times, and while there is still some disagreement as to how many foldables were shipped last year (we have seen estimates between 13m and 19m) SDC’s share of the foldable OLED display market is between 75% and 80% and is expected to rise again this year.  Giving SDC a major leg up in the foldable OLED display business is the fact that parent Samsung Electronics accounts for over 75% of total foldable device shipments, with the assumption that all of those foldable displays are p0roduced by SDC.  Further, Samsung  Display has also supplied foldable displays for the Xiaomi (1818.HK) Fold 2, the Oppo Find N2 and Find N2 Flip, the Vivo X-Fold and X-Fold+, all among the most popular Chinese foldable smartphones.
 
There are competitors, primarily China’s BOE (200725.CH), who has supplied the foldable displays for Huawei’s (pvt) Mate XS2 and Pocket S, and the Honor (pvt) Magic V and Magic VS, while Chinastar has supplied the foldable display for the Motorola (MSI) Razer 2022, but most significant was BOE’s win for the Asus (2357.TT) Zenbook 17 foldable notebook, a major psychological win for BOE.  That said, recent indications are that Samsung Display will be replacing Huawei’s foldable display in upcoming Huawei foldables and even potentially replacing Visionox at Huawei, who had supplied one foldable model last year.  The foldable OLED display market is expected to grow ~25% in unit volume this year so SDC should enjoy their world dominance for at least another year before the others gain the necessary experience to challenge the leader.

As PR heats up for the upcoming CES show (Jan. 5), Samsung Display (pvt) will show a demo of a hybrid foldable/slideable display device to potential customers.  The display which looks like a smartphone with an 8” diagonal (assuming a 9:16 aspect ratio), which would have ~27.8 in2 of display space, and could unfold to a 10” diagonal, which would increase the display space to ~50 in2, and then would be able to slide a rolled up display to give a diagonal of 12.5”, which would give ~72.2 in2 of display space.  The display will be capable of expanding from smartphone size to that of a tablet and to laptop size, or a ~264% increase in area by our calculations. 
 
While there is no assurance that such a display will be used in a device in the near future, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) has indicated that it will be expanding its foldable line in 2023 and 2024 to include new formats.  The only difficulty we foresee with such a consumer device would be product placement as it could be construed as a replacement for all three current devices, and could cannibalize existing or future individual category device sales.  That said, a device such as this, especially a 2nd generation device where inevitable initial issues could be addressed, would be a big step forward for the mobile CE space.
 

Samsung Display’s (pvt) CEO, JS Choi, seems to have taken on the additional roll of head of SDC marketing as he has been quite visible over the last few months promoting SDC’s new and developing products at conferences and trade shows all across the globe.  He did not miss a beat during his speaking time at the Intel (INTC) 2022 Innovation Forum to demonstrate a prototype of a slideable laptop that the company is developing that expands from a 13” tablet to a 17” laptop (see Figure 1 & link below).  Similar to smaller smartphone sized expandable/rollable prototypes, this device allows the user to pull the side frame to extend the tablet to laptop size, with the extended portion of the display being coiled internally until expanded.  When released the extended frame slides back to the smaller size and the additional display is then re-rolled internally.
While the SDC CEO ‘announced’ the device, no date for its release was given, which keeps it in the same category as the S-Folding displays (see Figure 2) that SDC has shown in recent months, that of ‘potential products’ that SDC and partners or affiliates are developing to exploit SDC’s foldable OLED display prowess.  We expect that SDC’s parent Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) will release at least one ‘advanced’ foldable/rollable model in 2023, and given the company’s massive media blitz promoting the most recent Galaxy Z Flip and Z Fold smartphones, there will be considerable customer interest in such as the category develops and refinements to the technology continue as we get closer to the reality of a truly rollable display configuration, as we show in Figure 3, a dream device (our favorite) that Universal Display (OLED) burned into our minds years ago to promote OLED technology.
Samsung Display has been the leader in the flexible display market since its initial release of the Galaxy Round in 2013 and the Galaxy Note Edge in 2014, the first commercial flexible OLED products[1], and continues to hold that lead, with China’s BOE (200725.CH) the only sizable contender albeit with a 9.2% share vs. SDC’s 71.2% in 2Q.  As the small panel OLED display market continues to mature, display producers struggle to differentiate their products to void the inevitable price degradation that occurs in the display space. 
By developing new small panel OLED display formats, such as those noted above, Samsung has been able to stay a step ahead of the pack, both on the production side with SDC, and on the product side with its successful Z Fold series of foldable smartphones.  That said, now that the public has been informed and likely convinced that foldable displays are smartphone fans’ new toy, there will be considerable momentum for foldable displays going forward, however that comes with the same caveats as any other feature that appears in consumer related devices, and that is practicality.  While foldable displays represent a significant leap in display technology, unless such displays serve a practical purpose, they will become ‘just another feature’, like multiple cameras, rapid chargers, or borderless displays, that consumers will assume they get for free after the initial excitement dies down.  If Samsung and other brands are able to come up with foldable/rollable devices that actually benefit consumers, the technology will have an extended lifetime and appeal, otherwise it will disappear into the world of generic display technology.


[1] Other brands have shown earlier prototypes of flexible OLED displays or devices, some based on e-paper or polymer materials, but we still consider Samsung’s ability for high volume flexible OLED mass production for the Note Edge to be the actual start of the ‘flexible OLED Age’.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/samsung-slidable-PC.webp?fit=720%2C423&p=1  (Ctl + Click)

​We have mentioned flexible OLED panel producer Royole (pvt) a number of times over the years, first as the winner in the race to produce a commercial foldable OLED display (although it was a developer’s kit), beating small panel OLED leader Samsung Display (pvt) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), who now dominate the space, and later as the company repeatedly touted itself as the leader in China’s foldable OLED development’ and its leader as a genius who beat the leaders at their own game.  The company was able to raise over $1.1b from Chinese investors, venture firms and regional and state-owned banks and filed an S-1 with the SEC for an IPO in 2020 at a valuation of ~$6b.  Unfortunately the documents seem to indicate that very few of the company’s foldable phones had actually been sold and raised questions about the company’s Gen 6 flexible OLED production line, said to have cost a fraction of typical OLED fab costs due to its ‘unique’ processes, which eventually caused IPO plans to be scrapped.
The company continued its development plans with the release of a 2nd generation foldable later in 2020 and announced plans to build another flexible OLED fab ($2.4b) in Qingdao in cooperation with a number of local state-run organizations and file papers for listing on the Chinese STAR board where requirements were a bit less onerous.  Unfortunately the company did not meet those requirements and the STAR IPO was rejected as rumors of missed payments to employees and suppliers began to surface.  There was considerable talk of potential bailout partners for a few months late last year and early this year but by May Royole management issued a notice to many employees requesting that they take long (3 month) vacations, which did little but to stimulate workers to protest to the local government.  Some workers were paid missing wages by the local government but it seems the handwriting was already on the wall and no bailout appeared, leaving creditors hanging as to when or if they were to get paid as the company continued to flounder.
Recently a number of those creditors filed redress documents against the company and further investigation led to the discovery that there were a number of pending disputes between the company and construction companies, service providers, public relations firms, and advertising companies, which forced a review of the company’s standing by the courts.  As of the end of last month the courts ruled in favor of the plaintiffs and froze what came to $5.3m in assets held by a company holding entity, essentially preventing the company from access to any capital, potentially signaling the end to the company’s operations, at least until the courts can sort out the complete asset and creditor lists.
As we had noted a number of times, we have doubted Royole’s abilities from the start, as we could find few who had any customer relationships with the company, and once we were able to see paperwork from the IPO filings, it became obvious that there had been considerable speculation as to the company’s prospects when early funding was made, especially around the time of the aborted STAR listing, which placed a $2+b valuation on the company.  It was not that we doubted the ability of a small company to find a shorter path to building a better mousetrap than its infinitely larger brethren, but that the massive hype behind the company’s founder’s ability to create a process that cost a small percentage of the manufacturing cost of flexible OLED production, without any details ever being disclosed, seemed a bit of artifice, which it seems it was.  While we don’t know what the courts will ultimately decide, we expect Royole will likely be shut down, a sad day for unicorns everywhere given the hopes originally placed on the company’s success, but sooner or later Royole had to pay the piper….

​Last month we commented on the upcoming Samsung (005930.KS) ‘event’ that was expected to contain the announcement of Samsung’s latest foldable smartphones, the Galaxy Fold/Flip 4 series, and what we hoped might be part of that release.  The event has taken place, the new phones announced, and while we have yet to examine the software, we can point to how our hopes and expectations were met, at least thus far.
Our first ‘hope’ was for a lower price, pitting economies of scale against the higher cost of silicon and other components.  Unfortunately, at least at the onset, it looks like there was little pricing movement, with the Z Fold 4 (256Gb) selling for $1,799, even with the Z Fold 3, while the 512Gb version is a few dollars more expensive than last year’s model.  There is a new version of the Z Fold 4 that has 1Tb of memory that sells for $2,159 so there is no comparison to the older model.  The Z Flip 4 (128Gb) is priced at $999, the same as the previous model, with the 256Gb version $10 more than the previous year’s model, so little change, although there is now a 512Gb version that sells for $1,179, so there is little change overall on pricing, a bit of a disappointment and somewhat of a stumbling block to incremental y/y shipments.
We had hoped for a bigger 2nd screen on the new models, as the less often the device has to be opened the longer it will last and when closed a foldable should be the equivalent of a ‘regular’ smartphone, with a full sized high-resolution display.  When comparing the new Galaxy Fold 4 to the previous model, it turns out that the size of the device is actually slightly smaller (~2%) but marginally thinner (under a mm difference when closed), although its .28oz. lighter.  The main (foldable) display still has a 7.6” diagonal with marginally smaller bezels, with a 90.9% SBR vs. the Fold 3’s 88.8% SBR, with both having a PPI of 374.  The cover display on the Fold 4 is still a 6.2” display but with a a higher resolution (+10.9%), so on an overall basis there was little change as to the displays on the Z Fold 4.  The Galaxy Z Flip 4 has the same main (foldable) screen as the previous model, and the same size cover screen (1.9”) and the overall device is a mere 2.1% smaller than last year, so again little movement on our 2nd wish.
As far as our hope that the new device would be more ‘durable’, both new models have upgraded the cover glass from Corning’s (GLW) Victus to Victus+ with higher scratch resistance and the new X Fold 4 has a higher pixel count main camera and a 3x (vs. 2X) zoom on Cam #2, with pretty much everything else staying the same, while the Z Flip 4 has a 12% more powerful battery.  Both new versions have upgraded chipsets, CPU’s, and GPUs, as one would expect, which should eke out slightly better performance, but on an overall basis most of the hardware has remained the same.
As we have yet to look at the software and built-in apps, we cannot tell if Samsung has made progress toward the development of applications that take further advantage of the device’s foldability, our 4th hope, so we will have to leave that slot open, but we are leaving the table feeling a bit unsatisfied, kind of like grocery store Sushi…you want to like it bit there is little to get excited about, somewhere between Masa and gas station tuna…

​which will likely include the introduction of the Galaxy Z Fold 4 and Z Flip 4, Samsung’s latest entries into its foldable smartphone line.  Last week we noted that we were less concerned with feature changes in both models than we were about the price, which we hoped would be reduced as Samsung gained scale, although our actual expectations are for flat y/y pricing for the new models.  That said, almost immediately after we published our note, rumors began surfacing that Samsung was going to raise the price of the foldables to compensate for increased material and  logistics costs, certainly a negative in our view.
Most recently we received pricing data from Korea that indicated that Samsung had reached a tentative price agreement for the new models with a mobile carrier (domestic) that would hold the price of the Galaxy Z Fold (256GB) at the same price as last year, while the Galaxy Z Flip (256GB) would increase by 3.6% and the 512GB models would remain at last year’s price.  Given the strength of the dollar there is some play here relative to what will be US pricing, but it seems that Samsung has, at least for now, kept new model pricing relatively intact if the Korean pricing is any indication, which we would see as a positive for foldable sales given the recent rumors, and if you pre-order (Korea) they will throw in a pair of Galaxy Buds 2, a case and a 1 year phone care package. 
While blogs have been chattering about the miniscule changes in bezel size, notch shape, or camera specs, most consumers at least start evaluating new smartphones based on price, so a small or no change should keep the foldable playing field relatively level heading into the 2nd half.  It’s now up to Chinese rivals to see if they are able to cut prices for new foldable models in the current inflationary environment in order to gain share against Samsung, whose share of the foldable market was between 85% and 90% last year.