2G/3G Shutdown
Back in February we noted the continuing shut-down of 2G and 3G services in the US as carriers try to reallocate resources to 4G and 5G spectrum, while reducing costs associated with these older technologies. The bulk of 3G network users would be for older smartphones but there are also older tablets, watches, medical devices, SOS (“I’ve fallen and I can’t get up”) services, and security systems that still operate on 3G, so there can be some fallout as these networks are shut down, but the shut-down process is not only happening in the US.
According to data collected by GSA, at the half year mark there were 149 global carriers in 68 countries that had completed, planned, or were in progress of shutting down their 2G and 3G networks, with 32.2% of those completed. As seen in Figure 7 Europe is considerably further along in the process while emerging regions are far behind, still relying on 2G and 3G for mobile systems and less aggressive on converting older technologies to 5G, but 53% of those upgrading older networks chose a combination of 4G and 5G, likely using 4G infrastructure as a mechanism for 5G transport, rather than building out 5G only (13%), which would limit the customer base until more of the population was able to convert to mobile devices that had 5G capabilities.
All in, as the availability of 4G and 5G phones continues to rise globally, more carriers will begin planning for 2G/3G shutdowns, with GSA predicting that while 2022 will see the highest rate of 2G/3G shutdowns thus far, 2025 will be the peak year, with over 3x the number of 2G shutdowns as this year. Given the pervasiveness of 5G at that time, we expect 5G to be the most popular upgrade technology.
According to data collected by GSA, at the half year mark there were 149 global carriers in 68 countries that had completed, planned, or were in progress of shutting down their 2G and 3G networks, with 32.2% of those completed. As seen in Figure 7 Europe is considerably further along in the process while emerging regions are far behind, still relying on 2G and 3G for mobile systems and less aggressive on converting older technologies to 5G, but 53% of those upgrading older networks chose a combination of 4G and 5G, likely using 4G infrastructure as a mechanism for 5G transport, rather than building out 5G only (13%), which would limit the customer base until more of the population was able to convert to mobile devices that had 5G capabilities.
All in, as the availability of 4G and 5G phones continues to rise globally, more carriers will begin planning for 2G/3G shutdowns, with GSA predicting that while 2022 will see the highest rate of 2G/3G shutdowns thus far, 2025 will be the peak year, with over 3x the number of 2G shutdowns as this year. Given the pervasiveness of 5G at that time, we expect 5G to be the most popular upgrade technology.
2G/3G Shutdown by Region - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA
Network Upgrade Technologies - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA
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