Ericsson (ERIC) puts it out for all to see in the Ericsson Mobility Report, a document the company produces twice yearly and has been for the last 10 years.  What makes us appreciate the data is the fact that unlike many organizations that make quarterly or yearly forecasts, Ericsson starts each bi-annual update with a comparison of what was forecasted and what the actual results are, a humbling experience for most and one that is routinely avoided by many.  Being among those that look at vast amounts of data and make such forecasts, we appreciate those that look at data and forecasting as an opportunity to give a particular insight into that data, and not a reason to apologize for being incorrect.  We note John Kenneth Galbraith’s iconic quote about forecasting, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know,” which points to humility in forecasting, and Naved Abdali’s often misquoted, “Some people claim they predicted a downturn, but they forecast a downturn every day, and finally, one day, they are right.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day,” that is indicative of the futility of self-promotion in forecasting.
In any case, here’s what the Ericsson report showed:

​[1] Forecast made in 2011 for 2016
[1] Forecast made in 2015 for 2021

…and here are some new ones:

• 5G subscriptions in 2027 – 4.4b
• 5G Subscriptions will account for 90% of North American mobile subscriptions in 2027
• 5G Subscriptions will account for 44% of Latin American mobile subscriptions in 2027
• During the last 6 months the number of service providers offering 5G Fixed Wireless Access services has increased by 25% from 46 to 57, with the Middle East and Africa representing ~60% of that growth
• By 2027 FWA will be offered to over 800m customers
• The fastest growing region for mobile data traffic between 2021 and 2027 is expected to be Southeast Asia and Oceania at 34% CAGR
• North America is expected to see mobile traffic growth of 24% CAGR between 2021 and 2027
• 5G coverage is expected to be over 2b people this year and will grow to ~75% of the global population by 2027 

Rumors concerning the demise of Samsung’s (005930.KS) Galaxy Note Series smartphone line have been circulating for over a year, and while there has been no ‘official’ statement that the Note will no longer be produced, it seems that we have seen the last Note smartphone this year.  One of the most important functions of the Galaxy Note series, which was considered the ‘highest-end’ model in the Samsung smartphone line, was the S-Pen, giving the device the ability to be used for note-taking, particularly for business users, along with large screens that created the ‘phablet’ category, between a smartphone and a tablet.  Sales of the original Note were stronger than expected and subsequent models continued that strength, and Samsung used the Note to introduce curved edges with notification displays in 2014, but in 2015 Samsung tried to expand the appeal of the Note to consumers and made the device less complicated to use, alienating some of its original fans.
In 2016 the company skipped the number 6 and released the Note 7, which included an iris scanner, opening it to secure payments, and a translation feature, trying to woo back the business customers it lost with the Note 5.  Pre-orders for the Note 7 were at record levels but when reports of the phone overheating and exploding began to appear Samsung issued a recall and replacement of the Note 7.  Unfortunately some of the replacements also overheated and burned forcing Samsung to fully recall the Note 7 only 60 days after its release.  Not to be taken down by a recall, Samsung released the Note 7 FE (Fan Edition), a refurbished Note 7 with a smaller (and safer) battery in 2017, starting the FE series that continues today. 
The Note 8, which allowed the phone to be connected to a keyboard and monitor, acting as its own computer, was a popular device, but the Note 9 saw few technology changes and sold poorly, pushing Samsung to create two sizes for the Note 10, with the smaller size attempting to attract women.  With sales of ~12.7m in 2019, Samsung tried to follow up with the Note 20 models but saw sales fall under 10m units, and with no new Note model this year sales continued to decline.  Samsung has now taken the S-Pen, the most popular Note feature and added it to the Galaxy S21 Ultra and the Galaxy Fold 3, eliminating the need for the Note line while following Samsung’s long-term goal of pushing all of its technology through the entire smartphone line, rather than keeping the ‘cool’ stuff just for the flagship models.
Given that the Note models were usually sold at a premium to other flagship smartphone line, the Galaxy S series, Samsung needed a replacement for dwindling Note sales, and while the Galaxy S series continues, the product differentiation afforded the foldable line and its success gives Samsung the option of cancelling the Note line without a long-term effect on margins.  The cost of producing foldables will continue to decline as will the cost of the components needed to accommodate the technology and Samsung has planned to produce 13m Galaxy Folds and Flips in 2022, which would bring foldable shipments back to the Galaxy Note’s 2019 sales level and exceeding the Note’s combined sales for 2020 and 2021.  With little competition from Chinese smartphone brands[1], Samsung’s foldables are the logical alternative to the Note, which was seeing increasing competition from Chinese brands and Samsung Display (pvt), the display production subsidiary of Samsung Electronics, is said to have a foldable display production target of 16m units in 2022, up from 8m this year, which includes foldables for laptops.


[1] 3Q ’21 Samsung Share – Foldables – 93% - Source: DSCC

​Back in 2020 you had a small surgical procedure to relieve Carpal Tunnel Syndrome on your right hand.  Your insurance paid for the surgery and your 2 weeks of rehab, and you fully recovered, but you suddenly are receiving a bill from a collection agency that says you owe $675 to an anesthesiologist for services performed during the operation.  Since your insurance company was paying the bills directly to the billing hospital, you wonder why a collection agency is sending you a notice only to find out that for some reason the insurance company found that the anesthesiologist used the wrong code when filing the claim and the bill was never paid by the insurance company.  Since you signed a release before the operation, you are ultimately the responsible party and the monthly calls you get from the collection agency are becoming a major nuisance, despite your insistence that the insurance company is responsible for paying the bill.
That’s one kind of ‘collection’ that can become both an annoyance and a detriment to your mental and fiscal well-being, but there are innumerable ‘other’ types of collection agencies that know more about you than you do.  While we stare in horror at scenes of facial recognition systems in China identifying everyone crossing against the traffic lights in Beijing, we routinely allow detailed data collection every time we use social media.  But it goes further, as we habitually agree to ‘Terms of Service” that allows companies to not only monitor everything you do on-line, but to add to that database information collected by almost any company affiliated with that application, meaning any on-line company that uses the Facebook (FB) Pixel application to collect data and monitor their website traffic.
We did a bit of digging to actually try to understand at least some of the data that we give access to when we use social media, in this case Facebook, but we expect such terms and privacy policies are similar for Google (GOOG) and other on-line applications.  By agreeing to Facebook privacy policy you allow the company to collect information about any of the following:

• Information from your sign-up
• Any content you create
• Any content you share
• Any messages you send or receive
• Anything from the Facebook camera app, including being added to their facial recognition system, including people, places, accounts, tags, are groups you are connected with
• How you use content, including type of content, features used, actions, people, time, frequency of use, duration of use, including what posts, videos, content you view and any purchases or transactions you make including credit and debit card numbers, authentication information, billing and shipping addresses, and contracts you agree to
• Information that others provide about you, which can be from computers, phones, TV or other web devices
• Such external information can include device attributes, O/S, hardware & software versions, battery levels, signal strength, available storage, applications, file names, and mouse movements (!).  Information about your Wi-Fi , nearby Wi-Fi networks,  cell tower usage, mobile phone IP addresses is also included, although GPS, Camera, and Photo access can be limited if you choose the option
• Cookie data
• Information from partners that is collected by Facebook partners, even when off the Facebook application, including ‘likes’, ‘dislikes’, sites you visit, purchases you make and ads you see.

This barely scratches the surface of what you allow Facebook to collect about you, which makes those collection agency calls seem minor when you realize the huge profile of information you provide to social media companies.  Think of it as a file cabinet full of information about you that they have been accumulating since that time you first signed up, and we have not even begun to explore what they are allowed to do with the information that is collected, although there is a simple stipulation that says if the company is sold, all of that data goes to the new owners.  While the Google and Facebook algorithms use much of that data to offer you ads and suggestions that would lead to more data collection, they are not limited as to what the data can be used for, other than illegal purposes.  In fact much of the data is used for site analytics, but there is no limitation on the sale of such data or its use by affiliated companies. 
While this all might seem a paranoia fest, the US is particularly lax when it comes to personal information, especially when compared to the EU’s GPDR (General Data Protection Regulations) which force companies situated in or doing business in EU member countries to ask for more specific consent as to what they collect and what it is used for, with defaults limiting access to only basic information and operational cookies.  With all the data being collected, the potential for you information to be misused, hacked, or sold is enormous, which could lead to problems that are almost impossible to correct or even discover, and the Meta-verse, if or when it becomes a reality, will just give such collection agencies even more data to collect.  It was much harder to get purchaser information from brick and mortar retailers than it is to get it from on-line retailers.  Just think of how easy that data will be to collect when you wander through hundreds of Meta-verse ‘universes’ or outfit your personal universe with all of those things you can’t afford or could never own in the real world.