Fun With Data – Mobile Admissions

Fun With Data – Mobile Admissions
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Ericsson (ERIC) puts it out for all to see in the Ericsson Mobility Report, a document the company produces twice yearly and has been for the last 10 years.  What makes us appreciate the data is the fact that unlike many organizations that make quarterly or yearly forecasts, Ericsson starts each bi-annual update with a comparison of what was forecasted and what the actual results are, a humbling experience for most and one that is routinely avoided by many.  Being among those that look at vast amounts of data and make such forecasts, we appreciate those that look at data and forecasting as an opportunity to give a particular insight into that data, and not a reason to apologize for being incorrect.  We note John Kenneth Galbraith’s iconic quote about forecasting, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know,” which points to humility in forecasting, and Naved Abdali’s often misquoted, “Some people claim they predicted a downturn, but they forecast a downturn every day, and finally, one day, they are right.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day,” that is indicative of the futility of self-promotion in forecasting.
In any case, here’s what the Ericsson report showed:

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​[1] Forecast made in 2011 for 2016
[1] Forecast made in 2015 for 2021

…and here are some new ones:

• 5G subscriptions in 2027 – 4.4b
• 5G Subscriptions will account for 90% of North American mobile subscriptions in 2027
• 5G Subscriptions will account for 44% of Latin American mobile subscriptions in 2027
• During the last 6 months the number of service providers offering 5G Fixed Wireless Access services has increased by 25% from 46 to 57, with the Middle East and Africa representing ~60% of that growth
• By 2027 FWA will be offered to over 800m customers
• The fastest growing region for mobile data traffic between 2021 and 2027 is expected to be Southeast Asia and Oceania at 34% CAGR
• North America is expected to see mobile traffic growth of 24% CAGR between 2021 and 2027
• 5G coverage is expected to be over 2b people this year and will grow to ~75% of the global population by 2027