5G – December/Year
For the last two months we have expressed some concern over the slowing rate of growth seen in some of the indicators we use to gather insight into 5G infrastructure development, having seen 5G smartphone model growth of only 1.3% and 0.6% in October and November. While that concern was based on the overall global macro environment, which would lead one to expect at least some slowdown, we note that smartphone model growth increased in December by 2.8%, and while that is still below December’s m/m growth in previous years, it is a step in the right direction, with slower growth expected as the 5G space matures.
For the 2022 year 5G smartphone model releases grew 47.9%, still a bit below trend line, while total 5G devices grew 43.0%, with vendor count increasing by 24.4%, as overall device growth moving back above trend line in 4Q. CPE growth was particularly strong in December, up 11.8%, with the full year seeing 30.5% y/y growth for that category, which we use as a proxy for 5G’s expansion from a primarily mobile technology to one that compares to other fixed customer technologies such as cable or fiber. All in, given the macro environment we believe 5G performed well in almost all categories, especially relative to mobile phone growth or lack thereof. In 2023, we expect 5Ggrowth to continue but expect y/y comparisons to be reduced as the industry matures, especially form factor growth. Our focus will be on device count, 5G share of the smartphone market, and CPE growth, which we believe will best reflect the state of the 5G ecosystem.
For the 2022 year 5G smartphone model releases grew 47.9%, still a bit below trend line, while total 5G devices grew 43.0%, with vendor count increasing by 24.4%, as overall device growth moving back above trend line in 4Q. CPE growth was particularly strong in December, up 11.8%, with the full year seeing 30.5% y/y growth for that category, which we use as a proxy for 5G’s expansion from a primarily mobile technology to one that compares to other fixed customer technologies such as cable or fiber. All in, given the macro environment we believe 5G performed well in almost all categories, especially relative to mobile phone growth or lack thereof. In 2023, we expect 5Ggrowth to continue but expect y/y comparisons to be reduced as the industry matures, especially form factor growth. Our focus will be on device count, 5G share of the smartphone market, and CPE growth, which we believe will best reflect the state of the 5G ecosystem.
5G Ecosystem - Primary Indicators - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
Selected 5G Devices - Device Offerings - Source: SCMR LLC, GMSA
5G Smartphone Unit Volume & ROC - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
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