5G Ecosystem – July
Despite shortages seen in many parts of the CE space, 5G components, at least chipsets for smartphones and other 5G devices, do not seem to have been seriously affected thus far, and continue the trend toward an expanding ecosystem. July saw the addition of 12 new 5G vendors bringing the total to 143, up from 91 in July 2020, with the number of 5G smartphones also climbing from 431 to 450 during the month versus 162 a year ago. CPE (Customer Premise Equipment) also grew from 158 to 171 offerings versus 94 at this time last year.
The trend line would indicate that 5G phone offerings would hit 500 by the end of the year, but with that number already at 450 and the holiday season upcoming, we expect that number is low. Since seasonality data is not relevant considering that 5G data only became available in 2Q 2019, we don’t have a long-term basis for making a forecast for the remainder of the year, but even using a simple average of the monthly 5G smartphone offerings ROC for the last three months would imply a year end number of smartphone offerings of 580.
While 5G for smartphones has been the focus for most applications, in order for 5G to become widespread, there need to be other devices and applications for those devices to make the technology more ubiquitous. Fig. 4 shows how the share of each application has changed as a percentage of the total, and while smartphones have declined slightly, they still represent 48% of all 5G announced devices. The data is Fig. 5 however shows the overall growth in announced devices with the data table below indicating the number of units in each category. Some devices, such as 5G laptops/notebooks have seen very significant growth, albeit with a small number of units, with all categories other than FWA/CPE growing faster than smartphones (see table below). As there were no in-vehicle 5G applications at the end of last year, that growth rate has been omitted.
All in 5G is growing but aside from the replacement cycle for 4G smartphones, applications that truly benefit from 5G are a real driving force for pushing the technology forward. IoT applications, particularly mechanical performance data, would certainly benefit from 5G, but would do little to promote the technology where consumers would see its value. With much of consumer facing 5G promotion oriented toward downloading video or gaming, we see a real market application a bit further out.
When a multitude of streaming devices for TV are able to access and utilize 5G, meaning when it is available to the consumer, and streaming devices are able to capture a 5G signal either through their own antennae or through a 5G internal Wi-Fi network, we expect a rapid jump in 5G recognition. This is not a simple task and while some streaming devices can already accept a 5G signal, most Wi-Fi set-ups do not, nor is the service available in many locations. The bandwidth available in 5G however will give streaming services a shot at removing the buffering and traffic congestion that plagues users. Downloading a movie to watch in a car is one thing, but not having episode 5 of ‘Loki’ interrupted every 10 minutes would justify 5G for us.
The trend line would indicate that 5G phone offerings would hit 500 by the end of the year, but with that number already at 450 and the holiday season upcoming, we expect that number is low. Since seasonality data is not relevant considering that 5G data only became available in 2Q 2019, we don’t have a long-term basis for making a forecast for the remainder of the year, but even using a simple average of the monthly 5G smartphone offerings ROC for the last three months would imply a year end number of smartphone offerings of 580.
While 5G for smartphones has been the focus for most applications, in order for 5G to become widespread, there need to be other devices and applications for those devices to make the technology more ubiquitous. Fig. 4 shows how the share of each application has changed as a percentage of the total, and while smartphones have declined slightly, they still represent 48% of all 5G announced devices. The data is Fig. 5 however shows the overall growth in announced devices with the data table below indicating the number of units in each category. Some devices, such as 5G laptops/notebooks have seen very significant growth, albeit with a small number of units, with all categories other than FWA/CPE growing faster than smartphones (see table below). As there were no in-vehicle 5G applications at the end of last year, that growth rate has been omitted.
All in 5G is growing but aside from the replacement cycle for 4G smartphones, applications that truly benefit from 5G are a real driving force for pushing the technology forward. IoT applications, particularly mechanical performance data, would certainly benefit from 5G, but would do little to promote the technology where consumers would see its value. With much of consumer facing 5G promotion oriented toward downloading video or gaming, we see a real market application a bit further out.
When a multitude of streaming devices for TV are able to access and utilize 5G, meaning when it is available to the consumer, and streaming devices are able to capture a 5G signal either through their own antennae or through a 5G internal Wi-Fi network, we expect a rapid jump in 5G recognition. This is not a simple task and while some streaming devices can already accept a 5G signal, most Wi-Fi set-ups do not, nor is the service available in many locations. The bandwidth available in 5G however will give streaming services a shot at removing the buffering and traffic congestion that plagues users. Downloading a movie to watch in a car is one thing, but not having episode 5 of ‘Loki’ interrupted every 10 minutes would justify 5G for us.
%G Ecosystem - Primary Indicators - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
Selected 5G Devices - Device Offerings - Source: SCMR LLC, GMSA.com
5G Smartphone Unit Volume & ROC - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
Announced 5G Form Factors - Share 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
Announced 5G Form Factors - Units - 2021 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, GAS.com
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