5G Ecosystem – June
In June the number of 5G devices grew 7.6% m/m and 175.4% y/y and continues to remain above trend line, as it has for the previous three months. 5G device growth rose 7.6% m/m in June and continues at ~7.7% m/m on average this year, while 5G smartphone growth was 3.6% m/m and 219% y/y, under the 2021 monthly average of 7.6%. While Chinese smartphone growth has slowed, which might influence overall 5G smartphone unit growth, the summer months are typically slow growth months, with September, back-to-school being the beginning of the holiday season and the period when the most new models are released.
Areas of most growth were both routers (↑17.8% m/m) and CPE (Customer Premise Equipment) (↑9.7% m/m) as FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) becomes more commonplace. According to data concerning the 20 most popular smartphones released this year, 11 are able to receive 5G signals, but only one of the 11 was able to use mmWave frequency bands, which is an indication to us that despite the US auctions concerning mmWave spectrum, mobile deployment has been slow due to the technology’s short range and potential for signal blockage. Verizon (VZ) has been the US leader in mmWave and has the fastest mmWave download speed of any major carrier in the US according to OpenSignal, announcing in April that it is adding mmWave 5G service to ‘parts of’ New Orleans, Fresno & Riverside CA, and San Antonio. Under the assumption that Apple (AAPL) sticks with mmWave on the iPhone 13 out later this year, we expect mmWave sites to continue to increase under all three major carriers, however at a far slower rate than sub6 given its slower speed but wider coverage.
As a side note, while 5G is just beginning to become a global technology, there are some in the communication industry that are already focusing on 5G’s ‘limited bandwidth’ when referring to IoT or other data sources that are expected to continue to expand rapidly over the next decade. To that end, the road to 6G is starting to be planned, encompassing networks where mmWave spectrum is the low-end of the new spectrum range and what is now typical cell structure (Phased Arrays) becomes IRS (Intelligent Reflective Surfaces), which are theoretically simple and require less power to operate than phased arrays.
That said, there are a number of very significant challenges that would have to be met before such a network system would be possible and other potential systems are also be researched, some that use CF MaMi (Cell-free Massive MIMO) access points that are distributed over an area and create a vast coverage network that eliminates the need for cell coverage and has no dead zones. Some are focused on much higher frequencies, up to 1+ THz., which offer much higher speeds than 5G but would require special components that have very stringent requirements that have yet to be designed, so despite the increasing number of papers on the subject of 6G, we are still many years away from implementation and still have a long way to go with 5G, which presents its own problems that are still being worked on.
Areas of most growth were both routers (↑17.8% m/m) and CPE (Customer Premise Equipment) (↑9.7% m/m) as FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) becomes more commonplace. According to data concerning the 20 most popular smartphones released this year, 11 are able to receive 5G signals, but only one of the 11 was able to use mmWave frequency bands, which is an indication to us that despite the US auctions concerning mmWave spectrum, mobile deployment has been slow due to the technology’s short range and potential for signal blockage. Verizon (VZ) has been the US leader in mmWave and has the fastest mmWave download speed of any major carrier in the US according to OpenSignal, announcing in April that it is adding mmWave 5G service to ‘parts of’ New Orleans, Fresno & Riverside CA, and San Antonio. Under the assumption that Apple (AAPL) sticks with mmWave on the iPhone 13 out later this year, we expect mmWave sites to continue to increase under all three major carriers, however at a far slower rate than sub6 given its slower speed but wider coverage.
As a side note, while 5G is just beginning to become a global technology, there are some in the communication industry that are already focusing on 5G’s ‘limited bandwidth’ when referring to IoT or other data sources that are expected to continue to expand rapidly over the next decade. To that end, the road to 6G is starting to be planned, encompassing networks where mmWave spectrum is the low-end of the new spectrum range and what is now typical cell structure (Phased Arrays) becomes IRS (Intelligent Reflective Surfaces), which are theoretically simple and require less power to operate than phased arrays.
That said, there are a number of very significant challenges that would have to be met before such a network system would be possible and other potential systems are also be researched, some that use CF MaMi (Cell-free Massive MIMO) access points that are distributed over an area and create a vast coverage network that eliminates the need for cell coverage and has no dead zones. Some are focused on much higher frequencies, up to 1+ THz., which offer much higher speeds than 5G but would require special components that have very stringent requirements that have yet to be designed, so despite the increasing number of papers on the subject of 6G, we are still many years away from implementation and still have a long way to go with 5G, which presents its own problems that are still being worked on.
5G Ecosystem - Primary Indicators - Source: SCMR LC, GSA.com
Selected 5G Devices - Device Offerings - Source: SCMR LLC, GMSA
5G Smartphone Unit Volume & ROC - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
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