5G Ecosystem – November
5G device growth (i.e. – the number of new devices with 5G capability) slowed in November, similar to last year, albeit at a slower pace than in 2020. Device growth had been averaging 7.4% through September and has seen declines in October and November, which is beginning to look like a seasonal slowdown as new 5G devices have already been released for the holidays. Device growth, while slower in November remains considerably above the trend line (Fig. 3). 5G smartphone growth also slowed a bit in November but the spike seen in September is another indicator that the 5G space has matured enough to see seasonality. As the data for 5G growth is meaningless for 2019, 2020 is the only data points on which we rely for growth in December.
Based on last year’s data, we would expect December 5G device growth to be in the range of 5.0% to 5.5%. and while overall 5G growth will slow a bit more in 2022 as penetration rates increase, we expect a weak January and stronger 5G device growth in February and March, a result of Mobile World Congress (2/28/22). While overall device growth will slow in 2022, we expect penetration to continue to rise as 5G networks in a number of countries will begin in earnest in 2022, and continued expansion in the US and China will take place. C Band (3.7 – 3.989GHz) auctions and assignments continue in this the most popular mid-band 5G spectrum with only a few European countries still in the planning stage, and about half of South American countries having already assigned the band. The buildout of 5G systems in these countries is up to both the government or private carriers so the use of such spectrum is not a given, but such spectrum assignments pave the way for 5G usage when the towers are built.
Based on last year’s data, we would expect December 5G device growth to be in the range of 5.0% to 5.5%. and while overall 5G growth will slow a bit more in 2022 as penetration rates increase, we expect a weak January and stronger 5G device growth in February and March, a result of Mobile World Congress (2/28/22). While overall device growth will slow in 2022, we expect penetration to continue to rise as 5G networks in a number of countries will begin in earnest in 2022, and continued expansion in the US and China will take place. C Band (3.7 – 3.989GHz) auctions and assignments continue in this the most popular mid-band 5G spectrum with only a few European countries still in the planning stage, and about half of South American countries having already assigned the band. The buildout of 5G systems in these countries is up to both the government or private carriers so the use of such spectrum is not a given, but such spectrum assignments pave the way for 5G usage when the towers are built.
5G Ecosystem - Primary Indicators - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
Selected 5G Devices - Device Offerings - Source: SCMR LLC, GMSA
5G Smartphone Unit Volume & ROC - Source: SCMR LLC, GSA.com
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