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A Bit of 5G Confusion

4/22/2021

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A Bit of 5G Confusion
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​5G is not easy for many countries.  Geography and power resources can play a big part in how communications develop in many countries, while GNP and the cost of financing communications across sometimes large and diverse regions can add to the difficulty of broadband access.  But in Malaysia, a country of ~32.7m (a bit less populous than California) that is spread over two large islands in the South China Sea, covering 127,350 m2 (a bit bigger than New Mexico), the biggest issue holding back the implementation of 5G has been the government.  Its not that the government is not interested in allocating 5G spectrum, but more that it keeps changing its mind.
In 2019, the Malaysian government tasked the Malaysian Communications & Multimedia Commission (MCMC) to begin a public inquiry into the allocation of low-band spectrum in the 700+MHz range, and mid-band spectrum between 2300MHz. and 2600MHz.  According to the study, the best option for allocating these 5G spectrum bands was through a tender process.  Despite the study and agreement on the results, the MCMC announced it had awarded the low-band spectrum to 5 companies in an Official Ministerial Directive, surprising all involved in the tender process.  In June of last year the MCMC reversed its decision on the allocation, however in August the government announced that its initial plan to introduce 5G in 2020 was being put on hold until 2022 or 2023, and a new plan to upgrade the country’s 4G infrastructure was introduced in its place.
 
Once again, the Malaysian government changed it mind and in February of this year announced its plan for the Malaysian Digital Economy Blueprint that would roll out 5G spectrum in stages starting this year, but will be allocating the spectrum to a new ‘special purpose vehicle’, the Digital Nasional Bhd (aka SPV) that will build, own, and manage the country’s 5G infrastructure, leasing spectrum to telcos that will provide 5G service to customers.  The details of how the mechanics of this will work are still unknown, but the SPV has just announced that it is inviting telecommunications equipment vendors to begin bidding on the $3.6b US project, with the bidding process to be completed by mid-year.  The SPV is hoping to complete 5G coverage in two small (population ~100,000) cities and parts of Kuala Lumpur (pop. 1.8m) by the end of this year and expand coverage to 17 major cities in 2022 and 2023. 
The companies that have been invited to bid are Ericsson (ERIC), Huawei (pvt), ZTE (000063.CH), Cisco (CSCO), NEC (6701.JP), Nokia (NOK), Samsung (005930.KS), and Fiberhome (600498.CH), a number of whom have been singled out by the previous US administration as companies that should be banned from 5G networking.  While every country is different, with different geography and financial resources, given that governments are typically responsible for broadband spectrum, 5G roll-outs are quite easily affected by politics, indecision, and red tape and Malaysia is fairly typical in that its plans have changed a number of times over the past two years.  Even technically sophisticated countries like South Korea have seen radical changes in 5G policy, sometimes within very short periods, so we don’t focus on Malaysia as a place where things are worse than other countries, but one that happens to be a bit more visible.  Such confusion about 5G happens in many other countries.
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