AI Kool-Aid
As we have noted previously, AI systems are not just rows of processor cards with blinking LEDs but are systems that must be almost spoon-fed information upon which algorithms provided to them, make decisions when queried. Before such systems become viable, they need to be taught, using vast amounts of data and ‘teaching’ algorithms that are provided by data engineers and are separate from processing algorithms. That said, before the systems are taught, the data must be ‘organized’ into data sets that the system can recognize, which must be accomplished by humans sitting in front of computers. Each of these processes are different, involving both humans and computers and computers alone, but they all have one thing in common and that is that they all use energy.
While the current AI focus has put such systems in the public eye, but computers have been sucking down power for years, and while models can make estimates of what percentage of the global power grid they use and how much it increases each year, there is no specific monitoring, or is there a way to come up with an accurate estimate. The models estimated that in 2018 ~1% to 2% of the global power supply was used by computers, with 2020 as high as 4% to 6%, and models predict that at that rate it will reach anywhere from 8% to 20% by 20230, and most of that modeling was done before the recent AI fanfare and funding.
Carbon emissions are certainly a concern as demand increases but there is also a longer-term concern that with that kind of consumption growth, capacity will not meet demand. AI systems will get more efficient and consumption/cpu will decline, but if CPU volume growth continues or accelerates, as it seems to be current doing, who will get ‘power priority’, the average TV viewer or the AI system that is running the local telecommunication system? Of course, this is a bit sensational, although still a concern when trying to balance a green environment and continued demand for energy, but Microsoft (MSFT) seems to be thinking ahead a has signed a deal to ‘guarantee’ its potential energy needs in the future.
According to reports, Helion (pvt) a start-up funded by Sam Altman, the current CEO of OpenAI (pvt), the company that developed ChatGPT, Dustin Moskowitz, a founding member of Meta (FB), and Reid Hoffman, the Co-founder of Linkedin (MSFT), has agreed to provide Microsoft with power it generates by 2028. While this might not seem unusual, Microsoft likely has an army of negotiators working with utilities across the globe, this source is a bit different as Helion’s technology is based on nuclear fusion. Helion is so positive that they can accomplish this goal that they have agreed to generate at least 50 Megawatts in the following year or pay a penalty, all of this with the understanding that to date fusion technology has not produced any electricity. Helion has even signed an agreement with Constellation Energy (CEG), the owner of the largest nuclear power plant in the US, to manage the Helion project and market its output.
Helion has promised to demonstrate a working prototype next year, with Mr. Altman adding, “Our goal is to make the coolest tech demo in the world. Our goal is to power the world and do it extremely cheaply.” Of course such optimism comes after one pumps $375m into Helion but he insists Helion will be able to deliver power to the global grid by 2028 and checks in on the company roughly once a month. The fusion industry did receive a boost last December when scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory were able to generate more energy that they put in during a fusion reaction, but on a net basis that is a far cry from being a commercial fusion producer at a cost that is competitive with other energy modalities. Is Microsoft drinking Altman’s very expensive Kool-Aid after signing a multi-billion-dollar partnership with Altman’s OpenAI, or do they know something no one else does? We should know by the end of next year.
While the current AI focus has put such systems in the public eye, but computers have been sucking down power for years, and while models can make estimates of what percentage of the global power grid they use and how much it increases each year, there is no specific monitoring, or is there a way to come up with an accurate estimate. The models estimated that in 2018 ~1% to 2% of the global power supply was used by computers, with 2020 as high as 4% to 6%, and models predict that at that rate it will reach anywhere from 8% to 20% by 20230, and most of that modeling was done before the recent AI fanfare and funding.
Carbon emissions are certainly a concern as demand increases but there is also a longer-term concern that with that kind of consumption growth, capacity will not meet demand. AI systems will get more efficient and consumption/cpu will decline, but if CPU volume growth continues or accelerates, as it seems to be current doing, who will get ‘power priority’, the average TV viewer or the AI system that is running the local telecommunication system? Of course, this is a bit sensational, although still a concern when trying to balance a green environment and continued demand for energy, but Microsoft (MSFT) seems to be thinking ahead a has signed a deal to ‘guarantee’ its potential energy needs in the future.
According to reports, Helion (pvt) a start-up funded by Sam Altman, the current CEO of OpenAI (pvt), the company that developed ChatGPT, Dustin Moskowitz, a founding member of Meta (FB), and Reid Hoffman, the Co-founder of Linkedin (MSFT), has agreed to provide Microsoft with power it generates by 2028. While this might not seem unusual, Microsoft likely has an army of negotiators working with utilities across the globe, this source is a bit different as Helion’s technology is based on nuclear fusion. Helion is so positive that they can accomplish this goal that they have agreed to generate at least 50 Megawatts in the following year or pay a penalty, all of this with the understanding that to date fusion technology has not produced any electricity. Helion has even signed an agreement with Constellation Energy (CEG), the owner of the largest nuclear power plant in the US, to manage the Helion project and market its output.
Helion has promised to demonstrate a working prototype next year, with Mr. Altman adding, “Our goal is to make the coolest tech demo in the world. Our goal is to power the world and do it extremely cheaply.” Of course such optimism comes after one pumps $375m into Helion but he insists Helion will be able to deliver power to the global grid by 2028 and checks in on the company roughly once a month. The fusion industry did receive a boost last December when scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory were able to generate more energy that they put in during a fusion reaction, but on a net basis that is a far cry from being a commercial fusion producer at a cost that is competitive with other energy modalities. Is Microsoft drinking Altman’s very expensive Kool-Aid after signing a multi-billion-dollar partnership with Altman’s OpenAI, or do they know something no one else does? We should know by the end of next year.
RSS Feed