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Apple is going small – Codename N301

9/14/2021

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Apple is going small – Codename N301
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The AR/VR market is growing and there are gobs of statistics and estimates to prove that fact, but even with gobs of data on how big the AR/VR market is expected to be, it needs to be validated by a true believer and not just any true believer, but one who carries significant weight.  While Samsung (005930.KS) is known to lead markets from a technological standpoint and has a vast customer base that loves to try new technologies and new features, when it comes to validating a technology there is none better than Apple (AAPL).  Apple is rarely first with technology advances, waiting to see what might fit into the basic Apple model of selling more stuff for higher prices, and even when they dip their toes in the waters of a new technology they tend to take it slower than most.  However, if they find that a technology allows them to sell more stuff, they go all in, and for the industry that can be game changing.
Recently it has been reported that Apple has requested samples of FMM (Fine Metal Masks) from a South Korean display equipment producer APS Holdings (054620.KS).  Masks like these are used to pattern OLED materials on various substrates to produce RGB OLED displays.  What makes these masks a bit different, aside from the fact that they are not produced by the industry leader Dai Nippon Screen (pvt), is that they have a resolution of 3,000 pixels/inch, which is 4.7x the highest ppi in the smartphone market, and almost 22 times the pixel density of a 32” 4K TV.  These masks are potentially to be used for small, high resolution displays such as those in VR headsets, and while we expect this is little more than one of Apple’s R&D projects, it underlies the industry’s need for a major CE player to get involved.
While big electronics names like Hewlett-Packard (HPE) and Sony (SNE), are players in the commercial VR space, the industry needs a well-known hardware name to gin up consumer interest in VR and there is none better than Apple for legitimizing a technology, even if it has been around for years.  In the case of the APS Masks, they are produced using laser drilling rather than the typical wet etch method, which allows the masks the higher resolution.  Further, most VR devices use white light that is colored by a color filter, similar to the way LG Display (LPL) produces OLED TVS, but just as it does in OLED TVs, the color filter reduces the amount of light the display is able to generate, so the ideal circumstance would be to produce true RGB patterning on a silicon substrate that would eliminate the need for the color filter and produce a brighter display.  If Apple finds the APS masks viable for production, it could set the tone for Apple to venture further into the world of commercial VR.
Before we all get re-excited about VR, we note that looking back to estimates made in 2017, expectations for VR unit volume were for ~100m units to be sold in 2021.  Current expectations are for 6.1m units this year so we are a bit cautious about how quickly even a CE behemoth like Apple could move the market, so we take forward VR estimates with a grain of salt, but hope that Apple does find a way to utilize the APS high-resolution technology that will benefit consumers while keeping us with at least one foot in reality.
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