China Smartphone Shipments Fall in February
Overall mobile phone shipments in China fell to 14.86m units in February, down 55.0% m/m and down 31.8% y/y. Given that the 5 year average m/m shipment decline is -52.6% the sequential decline is right in line with the averages, however the y/y decline far exceeds the 5 year average of +32.3%, as it includes last year’s 241.5% y/y increase in February, which followed January 2021’s y/y increase of 92.7% and the March 2021 increase of 65.9% y/y, all of which represents the rebound in the Chinese smartphone market seen last year after four years of declining shipments. That said, while we have yet to change our overall estimate for Chinese smartphone shipments in 2022, we remain a bit more cautious as to the strength of the recovery. We do expect that the recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in China might have slowed shipments a bit more than expected, given the lockdowns in a number of large cities on the Mainland, but we had expected slightly better results for February.
5G smartphone shipments in China were 11.37m units, down 56.8% m/m and down 24.5% y/y, again against a strong February report last year. As 5G data is still relatively short-term, it is hard to read much into the decline but while 5G models remain about 50% of total new models in China, 5G shipments as a percentage of total Chinese smartphone shipments have fallen below the trend line for the last three months. We doubt that pricing has much to do with the decline, as there is little premium attached to 5G models however given the weaker economic growth seen in China, we would expect a shift toward lower priced phones generally, which would be less likely to be 5G ready.
As is the norm, February is an odd month for CE products, especially in China given the February 1 New Year holiday, so we give it less weight than other months, while March tends to be more pivotal. Typically March shipments in China are up 102.1% m/m, including last year’s 65.6% jump and the 2020 m/m increase of 240.8%, so we are expecting shipment to be a bit over 29m units in March, which will determine how we adjust our 2022 full year shipment estimate.
5G smartphone shipments in China were 11.37m units, down 56.8% m/m and down 24.5% y/y, again against a strong February report last year. As 5G data is still relatively short-term, it is hard to read much into the decline but while 5G models remain about 50% of total new models in China, 5G shipments as a percentage of total Chinese smartphone shipments have fallen below the trend line for the last three months. We doubt that pricing has much to do with the decline, as there is little premium attached to 5G models however given the weaker economic growth seen in China, we would expect a shift toward lower priced phones generally, which would be less likely to be 5G ready.
As is the norm, February is an odd month for CE products, especially in China given the February 1 New Year holiday, so we give it less weight than other months, while March tends to be more pivotal. Typically March shipments in China are up 102.1% m/m, including last year’s 65.6% jump and the 2020 m/m increase of 240.8%, so we are expecting shipment to be a bit over 29m units in March, which will determine how we adjust our 2022 full year shipment estimate.
China Smartphone Shipments & Y/Y ROC - 2019 - 2022 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, CAIST
China 5G Smartphone Shipments & Share - Source: SCMR LLC, CAIST
China - 5G Smartphones - Share - Total Shipped & New Models - Source: SCMR LLC, CAIST
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