Fess Up
While we praised Ericsson (ERIC) yesterday for being open about how not all of their forecasts for mobile communications turned out to be accurate, we take a minute to go in the opposite direction. Trendforce, a well-known provider of pricing data for DRAM and semiconductors, seems to have forgotten some of the forecasts it made earlier in the year. In a recent article citing its expectations for smartphone shipments in 4Q this year, the company stated that it was reducing its full year smartphone forecast to 1.335b units, stating that was 10m units less than its initial forecast. As we actually track forecasts such as these, we note the following:
The difference between the previous Trendforce full year smartphone estimate is 12m units not 10, but that ‘initial’ estimate was made in July, after the actual initial estimate of 1.367b, made in February and an update (reduction) to 1.36b in May. This puts the difference between the actual initial estimate and the just revised estimate at 32m units or a 2.3% reduction from the February forecast. It might seem that we are nitpicking, but Trendforce tends to be an outlier when it comes to estimates and forecasts and is not particularly open about the details or changes that they make. It is certainly valid to be lowering a full year smartphone forecast in light of component shortages and logistical disruptions, but it would be far more credible if it were done with a bit of humility, rather than deception, intended or otherwise. JOHO.
The difference between the previous Trendforce full year smartphone estimate is 12m units not 10, but that ‘initial’ estimate was made in July, after the actual initial estimate of 1.367b, made in February and an update (reduction) to 1.36b in May. This puts the difference between the actual initial estimate and the just revised estimate at 32m units or a 2.3% reduction from the February forecast. It might seem that we are nitpicking, but Trendforce tends to be an outlier when it comes to estimates and forecasts and is not particularly open about the details or changes that they make. It is certainly valid to be lowering a full year smartphone forecast in light of component shortages and logistical disruptions, but it would be far more credible if it were done with a bit of humility, rather than deception, intended or otherwise. JOHO.
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