Foldable OLED Shrinkage
That said, predictions as to the growth of the foldable market are quite difficult at this early stage in the in the foldable development cycle, so we take any such estimates as transitory at best. While we admire those willing to make the attempt, we temper those expectations and expect that the rapidly moving parts of the foldable space will changes those estimates regularly. In fact that has been the case recently as DSCC has updated their OLED Foldable unit volume forecast through 2025, decreasing estimates to reflect issues with trade restrictions that limit Huawei’s ability to maintain its leadership position in the smartphone space. With Huawei’s contribution to the foldable space lower and the adoption of foldables by Apple (AAPL) not expected to appear until 2023 at the earliest, we see the reductions as logical, and expect some further modifications as the trade situation with Huawei remains fluid and consumer acceptance of foldable devices becomes more widespread. The chart below shows the original estimates through 2025 made in December of 2020 and the updated estimates. The numbers in red indicate the difference between old and new estimates and the dotted line indicates the new estimate rate of change on a y/y basis.