Fun with Data – 2020 Smartphone Shipments
Shipment data is always a moving target and this year was the definitive example of that mantra. When estimates for 2020 smartphone shipments began to surface late in 2019, few (no one) had any idea that the world would be turned upside down by a virulent virus that changed the way people interact on a global scale. The other factors that can influence shipments continued throughout the year, but nothing had more of an influence of smartphone shipments than COVID-19. Given the reduction in travel and office time and the increase in home time, the constant focus on smartphones shifted to tablets and laptops and reducing the need for the latest and greatest smartphone. That coupled with smartphone prices rising substantially above $1,000 in the previous year, was something even excitement over 5G could not conquer, and smartphone shipments declined in 2020.
To what level is a more subjective question, and as we accumulate estimates from multiple sources, we see both the variations in full year smartphone shipment numbers and the corresponding differences in y/y shipment performance estimates. As we have always done, we average our sources to try to mitigate the effect of outliers and what amounts to inclusionary or exclusionary biases. The data below ranges from less than 30 days old to less than two days old, so it is as fresh as possible, but we note that one unnamed source published data ~ one month ago and updated it yesterday, with a 27.1% reduction in overall smartphone shipments, which points to the necessity for fresh data and averaging.
The data below shows the 202 smartphone shipment estimates for six of our sources, essentially those that have reported same, and while there are others that have not yet published their data, we expect this will give a good sample of the final data. We compare each to the average and compare the 2020 average to last year’s composite number, which was derived by averaging all sources on a quarterly basis and then totaling for the year. According to our calculations, the smartphone market declined 7.98% y/y, which we believe is an accurate representation of the actual market contraction.
To what level is a more subjective question, and as we accumulate estimates from multiple sources, we see both the variations in full year smartphone shipment numbers and the corresponding differences in y/y shipment performance estimates. As we have always done, we average our sources to try to mitigate the effect of outliers and what amounts to inclusionary or exclusionary biases. The data below ranges from less than 30 days old to less than two days old, so it is as fresh as possible, but we note that one unnamed source published data ~ one month ago and updated it yesterday, with a 27.1% reduction in overall smartphone shipments, which points to the necessity for fresh data and averaging.
The data below shows the 202 smartphone shipment estimates for six of our sources, essentially those that have reported same, and while there are others that have not yet published their data, we expect this will give a good sample of the final data. We compare each to the average and compare the 2020 average to last year’s composite number, which was derived by averaging all sources on a quarterly basis and then totaling for the year. According to our calculations, the smartphone market declined 7.98% y/y, which we believe is an accurate representation of the actual market contraction.
There is a problem with using average data which becomes obvious when calculating individual company share. As each vendors quarterly shipments are an average of all data sources and the totals are averaged, the total share (all vendors) will exceed 100%. To compensate, we bring the share total to 100% using a yearly constant modifier, with the result below:
We note that while Samsung continued to hold the top share in 2020, the actual number of smartphones shipped decreased by 12.3%, with a similar circumstance for Chinese brand Oppo. Huawei saw both a share drop and a substantial reduction in total units shipped due to US trade restrictions, while Chinese brands Xiaomi and RealMe, which is a sub-brand of Oppo, saw actual shipment unit share gains, despite the overall smartphone market contraction. Apple saw a similar shipment and share boost to a lesser degree. As we have noted previously, LG is facing a decision as to what it will do with its money-losing mobile division, which saw a substantial decrease in shipments in 2020.
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