Fun With Data – 5G For All (In the US)

Fun With Data – 5G For All (In the US)
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CTIA is a trade association so we point out that they might have a slight bias toward affording the wireless industry a bit of slack when it comes to marketing, but by and large their data corresponds with much other information on 5G that we gather.  The CTIA puts out an annual survey that tallies various segments of the wireless space, with this year’s survey highlights focused on the ‘5G Economy’ in the US.
Fig. 3 indicates the rising investment made by US carriers in 5G infrastructure, which has totaled $138.4b since 2016.  The CTIA adds that such investments have created ~4.5m jobs and generated $1.5t in GDP growth during that period, although we have seen other data that is said to reflect both job growth and GDP contribution from 5G, and believe some poetic license has been taken in considering what is included in those numbers, not only by CTIA but by other wireless trade organizations also.  While the US population is ~4.3% of the global total, the US investment indicated above represents 18% of the world’s total mobile investments according to CTIA, but to qualify, that is for all wireless, not just 5G.

US 5G Wireless Carrier Investment - Source: CTIA

Cell sites are the heart of the wireless network in the US and the number of sites has grown rapidly (64.85% over the last ten years, but not as much for 5G as for Federal reforms that eased restrictions on small cell deployments, which the FCC believes would allow faster deployment of 5G.  The theory that the deployment of such small cell sites (the size of a backpack according to the FCC) were being hampered by outmoded rules relating to the large tower installations that were used for 3G and 4G.  By ‘innovating’ the rules, such small cell sites could be fast tracked, and led to the increase in cell sites in 2019 -2020. 
5G was mentioned often in the discussion surrounding those changes with the caveat that not changing the rules would place an obstacle in the way of the US leadership in 5G, which stretched the truth a bit, as most early 5G sites were just additions to 4G sites, and the 5G signal path used that same 4G network.  Once again the political battle between the US and China had much to do with the legislation, as the US fought against the rapid 5G deployments on the Mainland.  That said, given the distance limitations that 5G networks face, it will be quite important to keep 5G cell site restrictions to a minimum or the technology will face limited coverage, but expecting the sites to be almost invisible is a bit far-fetched as there will be far more of them, although ‘microcells’ hanging on street lamps or on top of telephone poles, despite their number, will be far less obtrusive than the massive 4G towers that seem to pop up on every hill.

5G/4G Cell Sites - Source: Livewire

Cell Sites in the US - Source: SCMR LLC, CTIA, Statista

​Where we have a problem is CTIA’s coverage maps that compares US coverage two years after initial technology deployment.  The 4G map indicates that coverage was very spotty, particularly across rural America, while 5G covers a vast amount of the continental US and much of Hawaii.   Coverage maps however tend to be based on what is theoretically possible rather than what is actually available and just a quick check on carrier sites of ‘5G availability in your neighborhood’ proves the point that states like New York, that look to be almost completely covered, have to be looked at on a subscriber level, rather than on the macro-level that the maps depict.  Here in Westchester, New York the wide area map indicates that 5G availability covers the entire county but sites like speedtest break down the coverage even further showing where actual 5G sites are located.  Taking it even one step further, carriers have their own pages where you can put in a street address to find out if 5G is available to your home, and those results are far different than even the granular speedtest maps.  In fact we have been unable to find an address in our town that has 5G availability, despite the coverage maps, which we expect will be the case in many other locations

Wireless technology coverage two years after initial deployment - Source: CTIA

​All in, the CTIA survey was just a reinforcement of what we had seen before, but it validated much of the previous data.  Unfortunately, and this is the case with almost all data we see surrounding 5G, the vested interests of many parties are attached to that data and tend to paint a picture that looks real but does not truly represent reality.  5G is growing and at a more rapid pace than previous wireless deployments, but while carriers spend and calculate the return path of those investments, users see a completely different picture when they wish to apply the technology, even for such simplistic tasks as sending a short video to a friend.  It’s the real world that counts.