Fun With Data – AR
Announced products and released products can be very different animals in the CE space and more so with AR/VR headsets, which have a tendency to be announced with considerable fanfare and drift off into the nether world of ‘things to come’. Some of this is due to the fact that many AR/VR headsets are developed by small companies, whose resources are stretched and whose financials are based on weak funding sources. That said, this year to date there have been 4 new AR headsets officially announced and 7 AR headsets released, with all coming from 2021 announcements, with the average time between announcement date and release date for those released this year being 126 days, with a low of zero and a high of 237 days. Last year there were 21 announcements but only 12 releases, with an average time between announcement and release being 139 days, with a low of zero and a high of 820 days. In 2020 there were 8 announcements and 10 releases, with an average time between announcement and release of 227.4 days, with a low of zero and a high of 620 days.
If nothing else, the time between announced AR headsets and their actual release is declining, and that is a good thing for keeping the public interested in the AR/VR space. That said, there is also the issue of price, and our data suggests that the average price of released AR headsets has been declining each year since 2018, including 2022 to date, which we see as a key factor toward the commercialization potential for AR, and while we expect the rate of change will slow, as the AR space finds more ways to accomplish such mixed reality without the need for bulky or odd looking headsets, the public will have an easier time accepting their use, especially when compared to VR, which requires that the user be stationary, or at least limited to a small space.
We believe we are still a distance away from the concept of everyday folks walking the streets with AR glasses, and the need for world class applications will really be the driver for AR (see our note of 5/12/22 for details) but at the least, AR headsets are getting less expensive and closer to the necessities that are demanded of popular CE products, like actually releasing a product some time close to when it is announced, and not causing its users to become motion sick or quickly fatigued. AR is really a tool that does not require major content creation or a Metaverse for support, just high quality, unobtrusive hardware and consequential applications, all of which seem to be getting closer to creating a syzygy (today’s word of the day[1]. Everyone is waiting for Apple…we are waiting for applications….
[1] Syzygy - a conjunction or opposition, especially of the moon with the sun.
"the planets were aligned in syzygy"
If nothing else, the time between announced AR headsets and their actual release is declining, and that is a good thing for keeping the public interested in the AR/VR space. That said, there is also the issue of price, and our data suggests that the average price of released AR headsets has been declining each year since 2018, including 2022 to date, which we see as a key factor toward the commercialization potential for AR, and while we expect the rate of change will slow, as the AR space finds more ways to accomplish such mixed reality without the need for bulky or odd looking headsets, the public will have an easier time accepting their use, especially when compared to VR, which requires that the user be stationary, or at least limited to a small space.
We believe we are still a distance away from the concept of everyday folks walking the streets with AR glasses, and the need for world class applications will really be the driver for AR (see our note of 5/12/22 for details) but at the least, AR headsets are getting less expensive and closer to the necessities that are demanded of popular CE products, like actually releasing a product some time close to when it is announced, and not causing its users to become motion sick or quickly fatigued. AR is really a tool that does not require major content creation or a Metaverse for support, just high quality, unobtrusive hardware and consequential applications, all of which seem to be getting closer to creating a syzygy (today’s word of the day[1]. Everyone is waiting for Apple…we are waiting for applications….
[1] Syzygy - a conjunction or opposition, especially of the moon with the sun.
"the planets were aligned in syzygy"
AR Headsets - Average Price By year - Released Sets Only - Source: SCMR LLC, Company Data
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