Fun With Data – More 5G
Yesterday we noted the Ericsson Mobility Report, a bi-yearly collection of data on mobile communication that is a definitive source of information on the space, particularly 5G, where over the last few years, hard data has become a bit politicized. We pull a few more interesting tidbits from the report to share with investors. The table below shows 5G subscriptions by region for 2020, 2021 and 2027 (forecast) and the CAGR for each over the 2021 – 2027 period. Overall 5G subscription growth between 2021 and 2020 is expected to be 143.1%, while over the 2021 to 2027 period, it is expected to moderate to 36.9%, with China growing at the slowest rate (19.1%), while Central/Eastern Europe grows the fastest at 120.5%, and when looking at 5G subscription share, which we show in Fig. 6/Fig. 7, China’s share drops from 69.1% in 2021 to 29.9% of global 5G subscriptions in 2027, although it remains more than twice the share of 2nd place holder, South East Asia & Oceania.
Mobile subscriptions, over the 2021 – 2027 period have a 1.6% CAGR and smartphone subscriptions have a CAGR of 3.7%, with the difference between total and smartphones being feature phone subscriptions, which see a CAGR of -7.7% over the period. With the obvious fact that most of mobile subscription growth is coming from 5G subscriptions it is not surprising to see negative growth in feature phones, which tend to be smaller and technologically simpler than typical smartphones, and would be less likely to be 5G enabled, at least until the additional cost of 5G hardware reaches parity with 4G. 4G subscriptions themselves have a CAGR of -6.0% during the same period, with only two regions seeing subscription growth (South East Asia +0% & Sub-Saharan Africa +9.9%), the regions where feature phones are the most popular, implying that while 5G subscriptions will grow in those areas, 4G will still remain a popular mode.
Mobile subscriptions, over the 2021 – 2027 period have a 1.6% CAGR and smartphone subscriptions have a CAGR of 3.7%, with the difference between total and smartphones being feature phone subscriptions, which see a CAGR of -7.7% over the period. With the obvious fact that most of mobile subscription growth is coming from 5G subscriptions it is not surprising to see negative growth in feature phones, which tend to be smaller and technologically simpler than typical smartphones, and would be less likely to be 5G enabled, at least until the additional cost of 5G hardware reaches parity with 4G. 4G subscriptions themselves have a CAGR of -6.0% during the same period, with only two regions seeing subscription growth (South East Asia +0% & Sub-Saharan Africa +9.9%), the regions where feature phones are the most popular, implying that while 5G subscriptions will grow in those areas, 4G will still remain a popular mode.
5G Subscription Share - 2021 - Source: SCMR LLC, Ericsson Mobility
5G Subscription Share - 2027 - Source: SCMR LLC, Ericsson Mobility
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