Fun with Data – OLED Shipments & More
Small panel OLED displays are ubiquitous in the mobile market, with a quick look at the current crop of smartphones showing 42.6% of available smartphone models with OLED displays, up from 38.7% last year, and 33.3% in 2020. There are a relatively limited number of small panel OLED suppliers, at least currently, so calculating shipment share is feasible, but, as with many CE companies, they are not always forthcoming with shipment data, especially during cyclical industry declines. There are a number of firms that generate OLED shipment data, although the numbers can vary considerably depending on the source, with suppliers more willing to quantify granular shipment data than others.
That said, we use available data and conversations with panel producers to build out a picture of small panel OLED supply, as shown in Figure 1, and while there have been a multitude of stories as to how Samsung Display (pvt) is losing share in this lucrative market to other producers, even with the substantial quarterly variations seen below, the trend line for SDC’s shipments is almost flat. There is growth among the other providers, but with SDC having such a share lead it becomes hard to discern both SDC’s share changes and the growth detail of other suppliers. In Figure 2, which omits SDC’s data, it is a bit easier to see the growth in small panel OLED shipments from other suppliers, and the table below shows the CAGR for those companies. We note that as the SDC trend line in Figure 1 shows, Samsung Display has seen a less than 1% decline in shipment growth rates over the 11 quarters of data shown.
That said, we use available data and conversations with panel producers to build out a picture of small panel OLED supply, as shown in Figure 1, and while there have been a multitude of stories as to how Samsung Display (pvt) is losing share in this lucrative market to other producers, even with the substantial quarterly variations seen below, the trend line for SDC’s shipments is almost flat. There is growth among the other providers, but with SDC having such a share lead it becomes hard to discern both SDC’s share changes and the growth detail of other suppliers. In Figure 2, which omits SDC’s data, it is a bit easier to see the growth in small panel OLED shipments from other suppliers, and the table below shows the CAGR for those companies. We note that as the SDC trend line in Figure 1 shows, Samsung Display has seen a less than 1% decline in shipment growth rates over the 11 quarters of data shown.
As we have noted previously, we do expect Samsung Display to lose share in the 4th quarter as LG Display begins to supply LTPO OLED displays to Apple (AAPL), ending SDC’s reign as the sole supplier for the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, with LGD ramping LTPO production further in 2023. However Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SDC’s parent accounts for ~22.1% of small panel OLED demand (2022 YTD) itself and while Samsung does contract out ~30% of its smartphone targets to OEMs who can choose components, these tend to be low to mid-tier phones. Of the 28 Samsung smartphones currently offered, 46.1% are OLED, which drops to 30% for Samsung phones $500 or less, and to 12.5% for Samsung phones selling for $300 or less.
While this gives SDC a bit of protection in the small panel OLED space, Apple has become a significant factor in small panel OLED demand over the last few years, and while much of that demand comes late in the year, Apple’s influence in the small panel OLED market continues to grow, as seen in Figure 3. This reduces SDC ‘protection’, pushing the producer away from generic OLED panel production and more toward those OLED displays where price/area is higher, such as foldable displays, where the company holds a very significant lead. We would expect to see Samsung Display’s share of the OLED market to decline, as such premium products are more niche oriented, but would expect sales share to remain more stable.
The small panel OLED market has moved from being a niche market itself, to developing into a ‘market of niche’s’, with rigid, flexible, foldable, and micro-OLED segments, along with the potential for further expansion into tablets and notebook/laptops, so while SDC might lose share on a unit volume basis, SDC continues to push the development of new OLED display modalities that keep it ahead of the pack. It is inevitable that Chinese small panel OLED producers will encroach on the ‘generic’ small panel OLED market, as they did in the LCD space, but we believe SDC will remain the de facto leader in small panel OLED for the next few years, and while SDC will have to make a decision as to what emerging technology it might support as small panel OLED matures further, we believe they have been developing a number of LED based display solutions for a number of years. With SDC the only small panel OLED producer that has a major semiconductor foundry as an affiliate, we believe that will prove to be a distinct advantage for SDC in later years, as we expect small panel display will shift toward silicon based production over a 10 year timeline.
While this gives SDC a bit of protection in the small panel OLED space, Apple has become a significant factor in small panel OLED demand over the last few years, and while much of that demand comes late in the year, Apple’s influence in the small panel OLED market continues to grow, as seen in Figure 3. This reduces SDC ‘protection’, pushing the producer away from generic OLED panel production and more toward those OLED displays where price/area is higher, such as foldable displays, where the company holds a very significant lead. We would expect to see Samsung Display’s share of the OLED market to decline, as such premium products are more niche oriented, but would expect sales share to remain more stable.
The small panel OLED market has moved from being a niche market itself, to developing into a ‘market of niche’s’, with rigid, flexible, foldable, and micro-OLED segments, along with the potential for further expansion into tablets and notebook/laptops, so while SDC might lose share on a unit volume basis, SDC continues to push the development of new OLED display modalities that keep it ahead of the pack. It is inevitable that Chinese small panel OLED producers will encroach on the ‘generic’ small panel OLED market, as they did in the LCD space, but we believe SDC will remain the de facto leader in small panel OLED for the next few years, and while SDC will have to make a decision as to what emerging technology it might support as small panel OLED matures further, we believe they have been developing a number of LED based display solutions for a number of years. With SDC the only small panel OLED producer that has a major semiconductor foundry as an affiliate, we believe that will prove to be a distinct advantage for SDC in later years, as we expect small panel display will shift toward silicon based production over a 10 year timeline.
Small Panel OLED Shipments by Producer - 2020 - 2022 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, DSCC, RUNTO, Stone Ptrs.
Small Panel OLED Shipments by Producer (No Samsung) - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, DSCC, RUNTO, Stone Ptrs.
hare of Total Small Panel OLED Demand - 2018 - 2022 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, DSCC, RUNTO, Stone Ptrs.
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