Fun with Data – OLED Smartphones
Almost everybody was wrong about OLED last year, and while we have yet to make our own OLED predictions for this year, we have seen a few that are quite optimistic. That said, on a unit basis, 2020 saw OLED units decline by 3%, likely a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated changes in both physicality and limited monetary resources. Huawei (pvt) was also part of the shortfall as US trade sanctions slowed the company’s smartphone business, and even smartphone leader Samsung saw an impact on smartphone sales, particularly in 1H. Chinese smartphone brands also saw demand decline affecting OLED display sales, and missed their combined regional goal of 100m units by 20m.
This year is expected to be better, with a general recovery in smartphone sales and an increasing share of OLED displays in that mix. Most important however is OLED relative newcomer, Apple, who is expected to be the largest buyer of OLED displays this year. As Apple has transitioned from LCD to all OLED for the iPhone, the company’s combined OLED display purchases are expected to rise 47.6% from 114.5m units last year to 169m units this year, including both legacy and new iPhone models. As older LCD models fall out of production Apple should continue to move toward 100% OLED smartphone penetration. The OLED penetration rate for Apple’s smartphone business is expected to be ~78% this year.
Following Apple this year would be Samsung itself, who is expected to see a ~3% increase in its OLED panel purchases for smartphones this year, with Xiaomi (1810.HK) the 3rd largest OLED smartphone display consumer according to OMDIA. All in, expectations are for a total of 584m smartphone OLED units, up 28% y/y, with 57.5% being flexible OLED smartphone displays. As Apple uses only flexible displays, they would represent ~50% of the total flexible unit volume this year. That said, Samsung Display (pvt) will remain the primary supplier to Apple this year, and while share will decline from 78.3% to 65.1%, unit volume will increase by ~23%, with LG Display (LPL) doubling its OLED unit volume to Apple this year for a 29.6% share, up from 21.8%. China’s BOE (200725.CH), who has been attempting to break into Apple’s OLED display supply chain, is expected to ship ~9m units for a 5.3% share of Apple’s OLED smartphone display business.
While OLED smartphones are usually the biggest share of OLED shipment area, LG Display’s increased OLED TV panel production has changed that share during the last few quarters, but OLED smartphone revenue still outpaces OLED TV revenue by almost 5 to 1, making OLED smartphones the more profitable business for panel producers on a per m2 basis. As the volume leader in the OLED smartphone display space, and the producer with the highest yields, they should see a strong year for the small panel OLED business as things stand currently.
This year is expected to be better, with a general recovery in smartphone sales and an increasing share of OLED displays in that mix. Most important however is OLED relative newcomer, Apple, who is expected to be the largest buyer of OLED displays this year. As Apple has transitioned from LCD to all OLED for the iPhone, the company’s combined OLED display purchases are expected to rise 47.6% from 114.5m units last year to 169m units this year, including both legacy and new iPhone models. As older LCD models fall out of production Apple should continue to move toward 100% OLED smartphone penetration. The OLED penetration rate for Apple’s smartphone business is expected to be ~78% this year.
Following Apple this year would be Samsung itself, who is expected to see a ~3% increase in its OLED panel purchases for smartphones this year, with Xiaomi (1810.HK) the 3rd largest OLED smartphone display consumer according to OMDIA. All in, expectations are for a total of 584m smartphone OLED units, up 28% y/y, with 57.5% being flexible OLED smartphone displays. As Apple uses only flexible displays, they would represent ~50% of the total flexible unit volume this year. That said, Samsung Display (pvt) will remain the primary supplier to Apple this year, and while share will decline from 78.3% to 65.1%, unit volume will increase by ~23%, with LG Display (LPL) doubling its OLED unit volume to Apple this year for a 29.6% share, up from 21.8%. China’s BOE (200725.CH), who has been attempting to break into Apple’s OLED display supply chain, is expected to ship ~9m units for a 5.3% share of Apple’s OLED smartphone display business.
While OLED smartphones are usually the biggest share of OLED shipment area, LG Display’s increased OLED TV panel production has changed that share during the last few quarters, but OLED smartphone revenue still outpaces OLED TV revenue by almost 5 to 1, making OLED smartphones the more profitable business for panel producers on a per m2 basis. As the volume leader in the OLED smartphone display space, and the producer with the highest yields, they should see a strong year for the small panel OLED business as things stand currently.
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