Fun with Data – Semis
We recently noted statistics from Semi.org concerning the 19 new fab projects that are underway this year and an anticipated 10 new projects to begin next year, generating ~$16b (+31% y/y)in fab equipment spending this year and a record ~$23.8b (+45%) next year. Semi provides their initial forecast in March and has just updated that data, so we went back to compare the new (June) with the old (March) to see if anything changed over the last 90 days.
Much was the same, however after a 16% increase in fab equipment spending last year the March prediction for equipment spend for this year was 15.5% y/y growth and that has changed quite considerably to 30% this year, almost double the previous growth estimate, and underlying the March estimate for fab equipment spending growth in 2022 of 12% was a year-end 2022 spend of ~$80b. While the fab equipment growth estimate for 2022 decreased by 1% to 11% growth, likely due to 2021 acceleration, the ~$80b target for 2022 is now expected to be reached and exceeded ($84b) this year, now estimated to reach ~$93b in 2022.
The granularity of the spending remains similar in that 300mm semi capacity was expected to grow 8% this year and 8% in 2022, which now is estimated to be 8% this year and 7% in 2021, but 200mm capacity, which was expected to grow 4% this year and 5% next year, is now expected to grow 5% this year and next, and Semi’s fab database, which includes almost 1,400 lines and 111 that are in planning stage, added 12 new lines between March and June, and removed 1. We show the Rate of Change in fab equipment spending and the change in the Semi forecast in Fig. 1.
Much was the same, however after a 16% increase in fab equipment spending last year the March prediction for equipment spend for this year was 15.5% y/y growth and that has changed quite considerably to 30% this year, almost double the previous growth estimate, and underlying the March estimate for fab equipment spending growth in 2022 of 12% was a year-end 2022 spend of ~$80b. While the fab equipment growth estimate for 2022 decreased by 1% to 11% growth, likely due to 2021 acceleration, the ~$80b target for 2022 is now expected to be reached and exceeded ($84b) this year, now estimated to reach ~$93b in 2022.
The granularity of the spending remains similar in that 300mm semi capacity was expected to grow 8% this year and 8% in 2022, which now is estimated to be 8% this year and 7% in 2021, but 200mm capacity, which was expected to grow 4% this year and 5% next year, is now expected to grow 5% this year and next, and Semi’s fab database, which includes almost 1,400 lines and 111 that are in planning stage, added 12 new lines between March and June, and removed 1. We show the Rate of Change in fab equipment spending and the change in the Semi forecast in Fig. 1.
Fab Equipment Spending - Rate of Change - Source: Semi.org
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