Fun with Data – TV in Japan
With the Olympics about to start, the question of how much influence do events such as the Olympics or the FIFA World Cup have over TV sales. Historically marketing in front of such events has been intense, with the objective of convincing consumers that their puny 42” TV is just too small for getting the full impact of such events, and an upgrade to an 86” 4K TV is the least that would influence friends to come over and watch. We have seen data that takes both sides of the question, but have yet to be convinced that in the general scheme of things, such events can make an appreciable difference over the course of a year. Overall economic factors seem to be a far more influence on TV sales, along with price, and with global TV shipments between 210m and 220m for the last 5 years, such major events don’t seem to move the needle.
As the Olympics are in Japan this year, we took a closer look at TV shipments in Japan, as the COVID-19 pandemic will be keeping spectators at home rather than in the stands, with the thought that perhaps that might actually stimulate TV sales, and while TV shipments in Japan in 1H were up 21.0% y/y, there is so little consistency in the y/y numbers going back 5 years that no conclusion can be drawn. What the data did show however is that Japan TV shipments have been increasing over the last few years (Fig. 1), and May and June were both up 14.9% and 11.3% y/y respectively this year, but again there is little consistency in the historical data for those months.
While the trend is up for TV sales in Japan, the trend for OLED TV shipments has been even stronger, increasing from 14,000 in January 2019 to 74,000 in June of this year, representing a share increase from 4.4% at the start of the period (1/2019) to 14.1% in June of this year. We note that Japan is a relatively small portion of global TV shipments, between 2.2% and 2.5% over the last few years, and with Japanese TV brands being favorites on the island, slow OLED adoption by traditional Japanese brands other than Sony (SNE) has hampered OLED adoption. With LG Display’s (LPL) increased OLED TV panel capacity, we would expect OLED TV share in Japan to continue to increase as traditional Japanese TV brands are able to secure enough product to justify OLED advertising programs and set production.
As the Olympics are in Japan this year, we took a closer look at TV shipments in Japan, as the COVID-19 pandemic will be keeping spectators at home rather than in the stands, with the thought that perhaps that might actually stimulate TV sales, and while TV shipments in Japan in 1H were up 21.0% y/y, there is so little consistency in the y/y numbers going back 5 years that no conclusion can be drawn. What the data did show however is that Japan TV shipments have been increasing over the last few years (Fig. 1), and May and June were both up 14.9% and 11.3% y/y respectively this year, but again there is little consistency in the historical data for those months.
While the trend is up for TV sales in Japan, the trend for OLED TV shipments has been even stronger, increasing from 14,000 in January 2019 to 74,000 in June of this year, representing a share increase from 4.4% at the start of the period (1/2019) to 14.1% in June of this year. We note that Japan is a relatively small portion of global TV shipments, between 2.2% and 2.5% over the last few years, and with Japanese TV brands being favorites on the island, slow OLED adoption by traditional Japanese brands other than Sony (SNE) has hampered OLED adoption. With LG Display’s (LPL) increased OLED TV panel capacity, we would expect OLED TV share in Japan to continue to increase as traditional Japanese TV brands are able to secure enough product to justify OLED advertising programs and set production.
TV Shipments - Japan - Source: SCMR LLC, JEITA
OLED TV Shipments - Japan - Source: SCMR LLC, JEITA
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