Global Smartphone Estimates Up
Digitimes Research has increased their estimate for global smartphone shipments for the 2021 year from 1.36b to 1.4b (+2.9%) and states that it expects global smartphone shipments to grow ~50% in 1Q of this year. While we see some reasoning behind the increase, with strong iPhone sales from Apple (AAPL), we are at a loss to understand the 50% growth in 1Q shipments, not because their 340m 1Q unit volume estimate is out of line, but because last year’s 1Q global smartphone shipments were 281.7m units, which would make this year’s y/y gain 20.7%.
As we have noted, we use an average of a number of sources to determine our shipments, but even using the lowest outlier, the y/y increase only come to 24.8%. As Digitimes Research is not a source for us, we cannot verify the exact number they are using for 1Q 2020, but in order to see ~50% growth y/y the 1Q 2020 Digitimes smartphone shipment estimate would have to be ~225m units, quite a bit lower than the average. We do note that 1.4b units for global smartphone shipments is within what we would call normal parameters, with some estimates already higher than 1.4b, so we only question the y/y growth, not the full year estimate.
Digitimes has also indicated that they expect 5G smartphone shipments to be over 600m units, vs. 280m last year, which is a bit aggressive given that the few full year 5G estimates we have seen are in the mid-500m range, but 600m is certainly doable if things go well. We do note that prices for 5G smartphones, relative to 4G, are close if not the same, and as integrated 5G chipsets become more common , we expect the share of new smartphone models to continue to grow, as it has in China (57% of new models in January 2021), where 5G installations are the highest.
As we have noted, we use an average of a number of sources to determine our shipments, but even using the lowest outlier, the y/y increase only come to 24.8%. As Digitimes Research is not a source for us, we cannot verify the exact number they are using for 1Q 2020, but in order to see ~50% growth y/y the 1Q 2020 Digitimes smartphone shipment estimate would have to be ~225m units, quite a bit lower than the average. We do note that 1.4b units for global smartphone shipments is within what we would call normal parameters, with some estimates already higher than 1.4b, so we only question the y/y growth, not the full year estimate.
Digitimes has also indicated that they expect 5G smartphone shipments to be over 600m units, vs. 280m last year, which is a bit aggressive given that the few full year 5G estimates we have seen are in the mid-500m range, but 600m is certainly doable if things go well. We do note that prices for 5G smartphones, relative to 4G, are close if not the same, and as integrated 5G chipsets become more common , we expect the share of new smartphone models to continue to grow, as it has in China (57% of new models in January 2021), where 5G installations are the highest.
China 5G Smartphone Shipments & Share - Source: SCMR LLC, KAIST
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