Good Things Come to Those Who Wait…
If you are one of those folks that ‘have to have the latest technology’, it must have been a difficult time when Samsung Electronics (055730.KS) released their first ‘consumer’ micro-LED TV in March of last year. The massive 110” 4K TV was a scaled down version of the company’s “The Wall” a commercial product that was built from modules that could be configured into a screen that was 292” (diagonal), which is 11’ 5” high and 21’ 3” wide. Last year’s 110” micro-LED TV was a bit pricey, offered at ~$155,000 initially, or ~$30/in2 but Samsung is in the price reduction mode for its micro-LED TV, and has not only cut the price to a mere $83,000 (reportedly) or $16.04/in2. How might one resist such a bargain? Well Samsung is now also offering (likely available in June or July) a 114” version for $100,000, or $18/in2 or for those smaller homes, an 89” version for a paltry $80,000 or $23.64/in2, although neither is quite as good a bargain as the 110” model on a value/in2 basis.
But the good folks at Samsung are not really trying to rip off consumers with such high prices as the cost of producing these sets is quite high, particularly the cost of producing the micro-LEDs that make up the light-emitting portion of the device. To begin with there are 8,294,400 pixels for each 4K screen, which are made up of three (RGB) sub-pixels, for a total of 24,883,200 micro-LEDs per display, and as these chips are less than 100um each, even in such large TVs, they are each smaller than a human hair, which makes the requirements for their production quite complex, requiring a clean room and precise control over the LED growth process. Even under these rigorous conditions there can be considerable variances in micro-LED chip performance, both from a brightness and a color standpoint, and measuring these characteristics on a wafer containing hundreds of thousands of micro-LED die. Since the measurement of those characteristics is a developing science, not all ‘bad’ die are always identified, so when they are transferred to the substrate of the final display, some need to be replaced, a process that is even more difficult than the transfer process itself.
Given that as the micro-LED TV size decreases, such as in the 89” version, the micro-LEDs either need to be smaller or they need to be packed more closely together, both of which increase the difficulty and cost of producing these smaller sets, and this is likely why Samsung has temporarily abandon plans to release sets below 80” for the near-term, and given estimates that Samsung has sold only a few hundred of these sets makes it more of a science project than a real retail product. That said, we are back to the consumer electronics ‘chicken and egg’ concept that keeps companies operating under the belief that if they can come up with a new technology, despite its high cost in the early days, consumers will find some value and will begin to justify the kind of process improvements and mass production that are necessary to bring down the cost. But this is not a rapid process, which is evidenced by the January 2006 release of the BenQ/Siemens (2352.TT) S88, the first smartphone to use an AMOLED display as its main screen (2”), with OLED smartphones now 16 years later taking up over half of all smartphones produced.
So while we are certainly optimistic that over time micro-LEDs will improve in quality and cost, we are not expecting a competitive micro-LED TV product in the near future. There have already been significant improvements in micro-LED process technology and there is certainly a path toward mass production, especially when used in conjunction with quantum dots, but right now such sets are a novelty that TV brands use to prove that they have the technology to lead the market, so be patient and remember, due to the magic of compounding, with an initial investment of $100 and putting away $10 per month, after 16 years you will have earned an extra $1.44 at today’s 0.06% average bank saving account interest rate, so start putting that money away now!
But the good folks at Samsung are not really trying to rip off consumers with such high prices as the cost of producing these sets is quite high, particularly the cost of producing the micro-LEDs that make up the light-emitting portion of the device. To begin with there are 8,294,400 pixels for each 4K screen, which are made up of three (RGB) sub-pixels, for a total of 24,883,200 micro-LEDs per display, and as these chips are less than 100um each, even in such large TVs, they are each smaller than a human hair, which makes the requirements for their production quite complex, requiring a clean room and precise control over the LED growth process. Even under these rigorous conditions there can be considerable variances in micro-LED chip performance, both from a brightness and a color standpoint, and measuring these characteristics on a wafer containing hundreds of thousands of micro-LED die. Since the measurement of those characteristics is a developing science, not all ‘bad’ die are always identified, so when they are transferred to the substrate of the final display, some need to be replaced, a process that is even more difficult than the transfer process itself.
Given that as the micro-LED TV size decreases, such as in the 89” version, the micro-LEDs either need to be smaller or they need to be packed more closely together, both of which increase the difficulty and cost of producing these smaller sets, and this is likely why Samsung has temporarily abandon plans to release sets below 80” for the near-term, and given estimates that Samsung has sold only a few hundred of these sets makes it more of a science project than a real retail product. That said, we are back to the consumer electronics ‘chicken and egg’ concept that keeps companies operating under the belief that if they can come up with a new technology, despite its high cost in the early days, consumers will find some value and will begin to justify the kind of process improvements and mass production that are necessary to bring down the cost. But this is not a rapid process, which is evidenced by the January 2006 release of the BenQ/Siemens (2352.TT) S88, the first smartphone to use an AMOLED display as its main screen (2”), with OLED smartphones now 16 years later taking up over half of all smartphones produced.
So while we are certainly optimistic that over time micro-LEDs will improve in quality and cost, we are not expecting a competitive micro-LED TV product in the near future. There have already been significant improvements in micro-LED process technology and there is certainly a path toward mass production, especially when used in conjunction with quantum dots, but right now such sets are a novelty that TV brands use to prove that they have the technology to lead the market, so be patient and remember, due to the magic of compounding, with an initial investment of $100 and putting away $10 per month, after 16 years you will have earned an extra $1.44 at today’s 0.06% average bank saving account interest rate, so start putting that money away now!
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