Has It Started?
As Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) 2025 premium TV line has only been available for ~40 days, we did not expect that prices would have changed from their initial levels, however we expected to see some price pressure on older (2024) models as production wanes for last year’s models and shifts to the 2025 line. The big question was whether the typical price reductions for the previous year’s Tv set line would be offset by tariff costs. We cannot answer the question fully yet, but in Samsung’s 2024 4K Mini-LED/QD line, where we would typically expect some price erosion, prices rose by 28.6% over the ~30 day period, as shown in Figure 1, bringing them back to levels seen at the beginning of this year. Similarly, the entire 2024 4K premium TV set line (includes both Mini-LED/QD and QD only) saw a 20.1% price increase. The 2024 8K line did not see much of a price change (+1.8%), while the 2024 QD only sets saw a 7% price increase, even as the offerings for about 1/3 of thoses line are no longer available.
Samsung’s 2025 OLED TV set line, which has been available for ~ one month followed a more typical early pattern and saw no price change during the period, however the 2024 OLED line did. While the high and mid 2024 OLED price tier models saw a modest 2.9% decrease in price, as one might expect, the low-end models saw the opposite, rising 27.9% in less than 30 days. Typical monthly price moves for most OLED models are +/-1.2% and while there have been bigger monthly moves than the average, this month’s increase was the largest ever for this segment of the line.
There are always a number of factors at work when it comes to pricing, particularly inventory levels, component pricing, FOREX, and consumer demand, but now we have the added factor of tariffs, which seem to change on a moment’s notice. We cannot pin down the price movements we have seen here to a particular factor, but we expect there will be considerably more volatility in TV set pricing as existing on-shore inventory gets worked down. As Samsung’s sets are assembled primarily in Mexico, for the time being they are exempt from more recent tariffs, as long as regional (Chinese components) sourcing does not exceed 40%.
This gives Samsung the ability to (if so desired) maintain low pricing while sets from Hisense (600060.CH), and TCL (000100.CH) rise, capturing incremental volume, however it seems that Samsung is moving prices up, despite the exemptions. While this will be beneficial in the short-term if it is sustained, it will do little for shipment volumes and customer satisfaction. With Chinese TV set brands competing aggressively for share in all markets, Samsung gains the price advantage for a while. Whether they choose to use it to regain share is still an open question.
Samsung’s 2025 OLED TV set line, which has been available for ~ one month followed a more typical early pattern and saw no price change during the period, however the 2024 OLED line did. While the high and mid 2024 OLED price tier models saw a modest 2.9% decrease in price, as one might expect, the low-end models saw the opposite, rising 27.9% in less than 30 days. Typical monthly price moves for most OLED models are +/-1.2% and while there have been bigger monthly moves than the average, this month’s increase was the largest ever for this segment of the line.
There are always a number of factors at work when it comes to pricing, particularly inventory levels, component pricing, FOREX, and consumer demand, but now we have the added factor of tariffs, which seem to change on a moment’s notice. We cannot pin down the price movements we have seen here to a particular factor, but we expect there will be considerably more volatility in TV set pricing as existing on-shore inventory gets worked down. As Samsung’s sets are assembled primarily in Mexico, for the time being they are exempt from more recent tariffs, as long as regional (Chinese components) sourcing does not exceed 40%.
This gives Samsung the ability to (if so desired) maintain low pricing while sets from Hisense (600060.CH), and TCL (000100.CH) rise, capturing incremental volume, however it seems that Samsung is moving prices up, despite the exemptions. While this will be beneficial in the short-term if it is sustained, it will do little for shipment volumes and customer satisfaction. With Chinese TV set brands competing aggressively for share in all markets, Samsung gains the price advantage for a while. Whether they choose to use it to regain share is still an open question.
Figure 1 - Samsung 2024 4K Mini-LED/QD TV Set Composite Pricing - Source: SCMR LLC, COmpany Data
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