January Panel Prices
As we have noted previously the rapid decline in TV panel prices in 2H 2021 pushed panel producers to shift production to IT panels (Monitors, Notebooks, Tablets) where panel demand and pricing was more stable. That shift, while reducing exposure to falling TV panel prices, tacitly increased IT panel capacity across the display industry exclusion of actual new capacity and increased the industry’s exposure to IT panel pricing. While IT panel prices continued to rise through much of 2021 they did begin to decline, albeit far more slowly than TV panel pricing, starting in October. While the smaller IT panel price declines were easier for panel producers to manage, their exposure was higher, giving more weight to IT price decreases, but most producers remained optimistic in 4Q, especially those who focused their IT panel production on the premium segment.
In January IT panel prices continued to decline as COVID-19 vaccination rates increased globally and a portion of the workforce returned to work, pulling demand away from stay-at-home products like notebooks and tablets. Even with the impact of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, overall IT demand faced both waning consumer demand and expanded capacity which has led to a continuation of the IT panel price declines seen late last year. Panel price declines for all panel categories exceeded our expectations in January as shown below. Our expectations for February panel prices continue the negative trend for all categories, and while many have expressed optimism that TV panel prices are not decline as rapidly as they have in the last few months of 2021, they are still declining and more importantly, given the expanded exposure to IT panel production, IT panel prices are falling at a faster pace than in 4Q. 1Q 2022 is typically a slow quarter for the display industry and some of that can be read into such panel price declines, but even if the global zeitgeist remains cautious about returning to a pre-COVID lifestyle, much of that stay-at-home demand seems to have been filled.
One thing we have learned about the ‘new’ CE world we live in is to expect the unexpected so we hesitate to make broad predictions about where panel pricing will be at mid-year or year-end at this early stage, but we expect this will be a more difficult year for the CE space overall as demand slows and some of the more easily resolved supply chain bottlenecks are cleared. Hopefully this will reduce some of the price volatility that has been caused by the pandemic’s rapid shift in demand and the CE industry’s inability to manage that shift, but the global environment continues to grow more complex, or at least seems so, so we expect at least one unknown to find its way into the CE space this year. As to whether it will be a positive or negative, we don’t know, but as Roseanne Rosaeannadanna said, “It just goes to show ya! It’s always something!”
In January IT panel prices continued to decline as COVID-19 vaccination rates increased globally and a portion of the workforce returned to work, pulling demand away from stay-at-home products like notebooks and tablets. Even with the impact of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, overall IT demand faced both waning consumer demand and expanded capacity which has led to a continuation of the IT panel price declines seen late last year. Panel price declines for all panel categories exceeded our expectations in January as shown below. Our expectations for February panel prices continue the negative trend for all categories, and while many have expressed optimism that TV panel prices are not decline as rapidly as they have in the last few months of 2021, they are still declining and more importantly, given the expanded exposure to IT panel production, IT panel prices are falling at a faster pace than in 4Q. 1Q 2022 is typically a slow quarter for the display industry and some of that can be read into such panel price declines, but even if the global zeitgeist remains cautious about returning to a pre-COVID lifestyle, much of that stay-at-home demand seems to have been filled.
One thing we have learned about the ‘new’ CE world we live in is to expect the unexpected so we hesitate to make broad predictions about where panel pricing will be at mid-year or year-end at this early stage, but we expect this will be a more difficult year for the CE space overall as demand slows and some of the more easily resolved supply chain bottlenecks are cleared. Hopefully this will reduce some of the price volatility that has been caused by the pandemic’s rapid shift in demand and the CE industry’s inability to manage that shift, but the global environment continues to grow more complex, or at least seems so, so we expect at least one unknown to find its way into the CE space this year. As to whether it will be a positive or negative, we don’t know, but as Roseanne Rosaeannadanna said, “It just goes to show ya! It’s always something!”
Aggregate Monitor Panel Pricing & OC - 2019 - 2022 - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Company Data
Aggregate Notebook Panel Pricing & ROC - 2019 - 2022 - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
Aggregate TV PAnel Pricing & ROC - 2019 - 2022 - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Company Data
Aggregate Tablet Panel Pricing & ROC - 2019 - 2022 - Source: SCMR LLC,IHS, Company Data
Aggregate Mobile Panel Pricing & ROC - 2019 - 2022 - Source: SCMR LLC, IHS, Witsview
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