January – Panel Shipments & Sales – Oh My!
Large panel shipments and sales were, to say the least, quite poor in January, with large panel shipments of 48.7m units, down 23.4% m/m and down 35.4% y/y. To put that in perspective, typically January large panel shipments are down 5.8% m/m (5 yr. avg.), with Jan. ’23 being the lowest January shipment level since 2016. Sales of large panels in January were $3.72b, down 23.2% m/m and down 43.0% y/y. Again to put that into perspective, January large panel sales are typically down 5.8% m/m, with January 2023 being the lowest large panel monthly sales since February 2020, the first month of the CVID -19 pandemic.
When broken down by category, notebooks saw the largest m/m shipment decline while monitors saw the least, down 18.4%, as shown below, with some categories getting near or below February 2020 lows (pandemic month one), and others, like TV shipments going back to 2012 below a lower number was seen, and monitors going back even further.
When broken down by category, notebooks saw the largest m/m shipment decline while monitors saw the least, down 18.4%, as shown below, with some categories getting near or below February 2020 lows (pandemic month one), and others, like TV shipments going back to 2012 below a lower number was seen, and monitors going back even further.
On a regional basis in January, China held the largest share of the large panel LCD market from a sales perspective, with a 53.7% share, above the average of 48.7% the region held for 2022. South Korea saw its share decline from an average of 23.8% of large panel LCD sales (2022 average) to 18.4% in January ’23, as Samsung Display (pvt), ended all large panel LCD production and LG Display (LPL) continued to limit production of same. Taiwan and Japan both remained relatively consistent with 2022 averages in January, at 22.5% (Taiwan) and 5.4% (Japan) respectively.
While South Korean panel producers continue to lower or end their exposure to large panel LCD production as they formulate plans to expand OLED capacity, from a sales standpoint, China’s revenue share continues to rise, despite the drop in overall large panel LCD revenue. Chinese large panel LCD suppliers saw the smallest revenue growth decline in January (↓12.4%) of all regions and similarly, on a y/y basis saw among the lowest y/y decline in sales (↓39.3%), with only Japan marginally better at ↓35.0%.
All in it was a bad month for large panel LCD producers, al unexpected. We expect February to remain weak, with March the best month of what will be an overall weak quarter for panel producers. As we have previously noted, panel producers are hoping to raise some panel prices in March as inventory levels for some products have been lowered, but we expect the price increases will be met with resistance from CE producers who have yet to see any substantial signs of consumer demand returning. We do expect that panel producers will be able to get some price increase to stick, particularly in TV panels where new model releases require some inventory build, but the 2nd quarter is far from clear as to consumer demand, so we expect better results from the panel space, but no clear-cut return to the profitability levels seen in late 2021 or early 2022.
While South Korean panel producers continue to lower or end their exposure to large panel LCD production as they formulate plans to expand OLED capacity, from a sales standpoint, China’s revenue share continues to rise, despite the drop in overall large panel LCD revenue. Chinese large panel LCD suppliers saw the smallest revenue growth decline in January (↓12.4%) of all regions and similarly, on a y/y basis saw among the lowest y/y decline in sales (↓39.3%), with only Japan marginally better at ↓35.0%.
All in it was a bad month for large panel LCD producers, al unexpected. We expect February to remain weak, with March the best month of what will be an overall weak quarter for panel producers. As we have previously noted, panel producers are hoping to raise some panel prices in March as inventory levels for some products have been lowered, but we expect the price increases will be met with resistance from CE producers who have yet to see any substantial signs of consumer demand returning. We do expect that panel producers will be able to get some price increase to stick, particularly in TV panels where new model releases require some inventory build, but the 2nd quarter is far from clear as to consumer demand, so we expect better results from the panel space, but no clear-cut return to the profitability levels seen in late 2021 or early 2022.
Large Panel LCD Display Shipments - 2020 - 2023 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
Large Panel LCD Industry Sales - 2020 - 2023 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
Notebook Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2023 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
Monitor Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2023 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
TV Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2023 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
Tablet Panel Shipments - 2019 - 2023 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
Large Panel LCD Sales Regional Share - Jan. '22/Jan '23 - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, IHS, Witsview, Company Data
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