LCD Large Panel Shipments – October
After a small bounce in September, large panel shipments in October declined by 4.3% m/m (down 18.8% y/y), seemingly settling into a range around 60m units/month, where it has been since July, with an increase (↑13.8% m/m) in tablet shipments largely offsetting the decline (↓18.2%) in notebook shipments. IT (notebook, monitor, and tablet) panel shipments declined by 5.2% m/m and by 26.5% y/y while LCD TV panel shipments declined by 2.7% m/m and 0.9% y/y. Large panel LCD revenue declined by 3.2% m/m and 30.5% y/y, bringing large panel ASP up 1.1% for the month but still down 14.4% y/y. China’s LCD panel producers represented 48.6% of industry revenue, and while Chinese large panel revenue growth in October was a meager 1.5% m/m (↓32.0% for YTD), China was the only region that saw revenue growth in October. BOE (200725.CH), China’s largest large panel LCD producer represented 56.8% of revenue generated in the region, with Chinastar (pvt) and HKC (248.HK) in the #2 and #3 positions with an 18.8% and 17.9% revenue share respectively.
October is typically (5 yr. avg.) a down month for large panel LCD shipments (-3.1% avg.), so results this year were only modestly worse, however we expect November, typically an up month for shipments (+2.0% on avg.) to be weak as consumer enthusiasm continues to wane and COVID lockdowns in China limit brand shipments, leading to order cutbacks at panel producers. If this scenario plays out, it should help to reduce inventory levels further, working toward reducing the over-supply as the holidays progress. While we still see little hope for a demand led CE recovery as we head into the new year, there seems to be some headway being made toward maintaining lower display production levels and normalizing inventory levels, perhaps leading to a more stable, if unenthusiastic start to the new year. With Chinese New Year coming early (1/22/23), much will depend on the COVID lockdown situation relative to Chinese CE demand, which could easily swing in either direction. If the lockdowns are softened, we expect a bit of pent-up CE demand, but if not, we expect the Mainland will see weaker CE results than seen in the US and Europe. It is in Xi’s hands…
October is typically (5 yr. avg.) a down month for large panel LCD shipments (-3.1% avg.), so results this year were only modestly worse, however we expect November, typically an up month for shipments (+2.0% on avg.) to be weak as consumer enthusiasm continues to wane and COVID lockdowns in China limit brand shipments, leading to order cutbacks at panel producers. If this scenario plays out, it should help to reduce inventory levels further, working toward reducing the over-supply as the holidays progress. While we still see little hope for a demand led CE recovery as we head into the new year, there seems to be some headway being made toward maintaining lower display production levels and normalizing inventory levels, perhaps leading to a more stable, if unenthusiastic start to the new year. With Chinese New Year coming early (1/22/23), much will depend on the COVID lockdown situation relative to Chinese CE demand, which could easily swing in either direction. If the lockdowns are softened, we expect a bit of pent-up CE demand, but if not, we expect the Mainland will see weaker CE results than seen in the US and Europe. It is in Xi’s hands…
Large Panel LCD Display Shipments - 2020 - 2022 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, Witsview, RUNTO, Company Data
Large Panel LCD Shipments by Application - 2022 YTD - Source: SCMR LLC, OMDIA, Witsview, RUNTO, Company Data
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