OLEDworks lays out OLED lighting roadmap
While the technology used for OLED lighting is somewhat similar to that used in OLED TVs, the need for mass production techniques that can bring the cost/m2 down to a level that can make it competitive to other lighting sources, which likely will be a roll-to-roll process or some adaptation of ink-jet printing. The development of such manufacturing technology has been hampered by the typical chicken and egg issues surrounding new display and other technologies, with potential producers not wanting to spend significant capex on developing the technology unless they see a clear path toward large scale commercialization. That said, aside from OLEDWorks’ obvious commitment to the technology, LG Display has slated the opening of an OLED facility specifically dedicated to OLED lighting. This fab, and we believe LG Display has yet to finalize actual specs and dates, is said to be a Gen 5 OLED line, with both rigid and flexible capacity, that will have a capacity of 30,000 sheets (phase 1 & 2), with a preliminary start-up date of January 2018.
We note that while we do expect that OLED lighting and LED lighting will co-exist, as they have very different lighting characteristics, OLED lighting does have the ability to be constructed on conformed or flexible substrates, allowing for an almost endless number of design possibilities, some of which are ‘fanciful’ and others practical. The OLED lighting market itself, and numbers here change on an almost monthly basis, is currently ~$170m but is expected to be nearly $700m by 2020 and over $1.4b in 2021[1], with a long-term potential greater than that of the OLED display market, should the manufacturing issues be solved.
[1] Yole Development - 2016