Perception vs. Reality – Part 1 – Flexible Displays
If one were able to look at the show from high above the floor, a more general perception of the focus of the products would be clarified. Of course the general focus was on LCD displays, which remain the bread and butter of the industry, but OLED was clearly a big topic, as it has been for the last few years. But flexible OLED, which in previous years was usually in a special section of the booth, surrounded with ‘Do Not Touch’ signs, was now in a more prominent location. That said, much of what was shown as ‘flexible’ was, as has been the case with consumer products that are called ‘flexible’, conformed, meaning it is shaped at the factory and the shape cannot be changed by the user. Samsung Display (pvt) is obviously the leader in the ‘conformed’ space with a number of models that use rounded edges for better feel and extra features, but we saw a number of similar conformed demos from other display manufacturers. The real question however was when will other producers be able to move such demos into production, and here the story was quite different.
There were no display producers who indicated that they had moved from typically rectangular OLED display production to being able to produce conformed product in quantity except LG Display (LPL), who has experience in flexible smartphones, but not in conformed OLED displays. We have mentioned previously that Samsung Display is said to be working on a 4 sided conformed display, which would set them even further apart from other OLED display manufacturers, but we would not expect to see such a device until 2018 at the earliest. But the real question was not whether you can make even a conformed OLED display in an R&D setting, but can you produce them on a high volume production line. We asked the question to as many panel producers as possible and the answer was a resounding ‘not yet’, and this was not about a flexible OLED device, but a conformed one. Many cited the capacity issue, with fabs in various stages of planning or construction, and a few even admitted that they do not have a timeline yet, but none were willing to give anything more than ‘next year’, and those were followed by various forms of ‘we hope’ gestures and smiles.
But what about Samsung Display, the leader in ‘flexible’ displays? We have mentioned the rumors that they are expected to have a flexible smartphone display out before the end of the year, and various renderings have painted pictures of phones that bend, fold, and even roll, with little said form Samsung. There were ‘stretchable’ display demos, where the entire display was produced on a material that could be stretched a bit, but again these were demos, not production models. So what about the expected foldable/flexible/bendable phone that is expected? There were many demos of foldable OLED displays, with mechanical bending apparatus folding and opening mobile sized displays like smartphone fish, but even less was said about when those demos, which were better this year (higher resolution) but pretty much the same as last year’s demos, would be available for production. Since we got little in response to the flexible production question, we went to a number of equipment manufacturers to see if they had some idea as to when such devices would be available, since without their equipment, nothing can be made.
The equipment manufacturers, who have the onerous task of translating customer requests and specifications into a working device, looked at the mass production of flexible displays as a bit more of a challenge than most of the panel producers, and when speaking with the engineers that have to design and build such tools the prospects were even less than from the tool vendor marketing side. According to the tool vendors, there remain a significant number of problems that must be solved before a truly flexible OLED smartphone could be produced, and they don’t expect those to be solved this year. While we had already taken that as a given, it calls into question whether that means 2018, 2019, or 2020, but at least there was optimism that eventually the problems could be solved.
Of course the next step was to try to understand the specific issues and potential solutions, but more important was the overriding conflict between the engineering and marketing departments, not at the equipment companies, but at the panel producers. One side, and you can guess which it is, says “What if we spend all this time and money on developing a flexible display and consumers don’t care?”, with the other side saying, “We can do this eventually, and we can do it better than anyone else”. While this sounds pretty basic, it was mentioned a number of times as part of the discussions equipment vendors have with their display counterparts, and seems to be part and parcel of what is slowing the development of flexible displays, essentially, “What if we throw the party and no one comes?” We make light of the conflict, but it is one that is key in determining timelines, spending, and producer focus, all key topics for display producers. So the bottom line, after speaking with a variety of participants in the flexible display segment is, “Probably soon, but not exactly sure when”, which loosely translated means, “As soon as someone else produces a high-volume flexible product, and we can see if anyone buys it, we will set real goals as to our own production.”
Most are secretly hoping that Samsung Display will do just that, but Samsung has expressed the same consumer-based questions and while they would desire the absolute cache that a successful flexible OLED device would garner, they do not have unlimited resources and have to balance those desires against the reality of quarterly performance. We would expect to see some sort of flexible display in 2018 on a limited basis, most likely from Samsung Display or possibly LG Display, but most likely not at the flagship level, and more as a trial balloon to gather information about consumer acceptance and how much of a premium the display could generate, with real competition, assuming consumers like the idea and are willing to pay for it, starting in 2020. All in, our conversations with supply chain participants lead us to push out our ‘flexible’ timeline a bit, although with the number of participants involved in the process of developing the technology in a practical way, we still feel confident that the potential manufacturing and other issues will be resolved. Tomorrow…TADFs.
There were no display producers who indicated that they had moved from typically rectangular OLED display production to being able to produce conformed product in quantity except LG Display (LPL), who has experience in flexible smartphones, but not in conformed OLED displays. We have mentioned previously that Samsung Display is said to be working on a 4 sided conformed display, which would set them even further apart from other OLED display manufacturers, but we would not expect to see such a device until 2018 at the earliest. But the real question was not whether you can make even a conformed OLED display in an R&D setting, but can you produce them on a high volume production line. We asked the question to as many panel producers as possible and the answer was a resounding ‘not yet’, and this was not about a flexible OLED device, but a conformed one. Many cited the capacity issue, with fabs in various stages of planning or construction, and a few even admitted that they do not have a timeline yet, but none were willing to give anything more than ‘next year’, and those were followed by various forms of ‘we hope’ gestures and smiles.
But what about Samsung Display, the leader in ‘flexible’ displays? We have mentioned the rumors that they are expected to have a flexible smartphone display out before the end of the year, and various renderings have painted pictures of phones that bend, fold, and even roll, with little said form Samsung. There were ‘stretchable’ display demos, where the entire display was produced on a material that could be stretched a bit, but again these were demos, not production models. So what about the expected foldable/flexible/bendable phone that is expected? There were many demos of foldable OLED displays, with mechanical bending apparatus folding and opening mobile sized displays like smartphone fish, but even less was said about when those demos, which were better this year (higher resolution) but pretty much the same as last year’s demos, would be available for production. Since we got little in response to the flexible production question, we went to a number of equipment manufacturers to see if they had some idea as to when such devices would be available, since without their equipment, nothing can be made.
The equipment manufacturers, who have the onerous task of translating customer requests and specifications into a working device, looked at the mass production of flexible displays as a bit more of a challenge than most of the panel producers, and when speaking with the engineers that have to design and build such tools the prospects were even less than from the tool vendor marketing side. According to the tool vendors, there remain a significant number of problems that must be solved before a truly flexible OLED smartphone could be produced, and they don’t expect those to be solved this year. While we had already taken that as a given, it calls into question whether that means 2018, 2019, or 2020, but at least there was optimism that eventually the problems could be solved.
Of course the next step was to try to understand the specific issues and potential solutions, but more important was the overriding conflict between the engineering and marketing departments, not at the equipment companies, but at the panel producers. One side, and you can guess which it is, says “What if we spend all this time and money on developing a flexible display and consumers don’t care?”, with the other side saying, “We can do this eventually, and we can do it better than anyone else”. While this sounds pretty basic, it was mentioned a number of times as part of the discussions equipment vendors have with their display counterparts, and seems to be part and parcel of what is slowing the development of flexible displays, essentially, “What if we throw the party and no one comes?” We make light of the conflict, but it is one that is key in determining timelines, spending, and producer focus, all key topics for display producers. So the bottom line, after speaking with a variety of participants in the flexible display segment is, “Probably soon, but not exactly sure when”, which loosely translated means, “As soon as someone else produces a high-volume flexible product, and we can see if anyone buys it, we will set real goals as to our own production.”
Most are secretly hoping that Samsung Display will do just that, but Samsung has expressed the same consumer-based questions and while they would desire the absolute cache that a successful flexible OLED device would garner, they do not have unlimited resources and have to balance those desires against the reality of quarterly performance. We would expect to see some sort of flexible display in 2018 on a limited basis, most likely from Samsung Display or possibly LG Display, but most likely not at the flagship level, and more as a trial balloon to gather information about consumer acceptance and how much of a premium the display could generate, with real competition, assuming consumers like the idea and are willing to pay for it, starting in 2020. All in, our conversations with supply chain participants lead us to push out our ‘flexible’ timeline a bit, although with the number of participants involved in the process of developing the technology in a practical way, we still feel confident that the potential manufacturing and other issues will be resolved. Tomorrow…TADFs.
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