Mini- LED Optimism Declines
Samsung Electronics has been wrestling with smartphone inventory issues, with ~18.5% of the company’s recently revised smartphone shipment targets already in distributor’s hands, considerably above the standard 10% to 12% usually held. Much of the inventory is the Galaxy A series (2022 models range in price from ~$182 - $525), which has sold poorly this year, which Samsung Display had been producing aggressively early this year before parent Samsung Electronics lowered their shipment target from 310m units to between 270m and 280m.
But the increase in inflation and overall uncertainty over the war in Ukraine has made consumers even more careful about spending and the TV space has also not been spared from similar inventory issues and target cuts. While it is not surprising that the bulk of the shipment reductions would be LCD based, given its dominant share of the set market, both Mini-LED and OLED TVs are expected to see continued growth this year of what is expected to be a 270m to 280m unit market. Unfortunately, the malaise that has set over the TV market since the end of 1Q continues to extend and estimates for both of those TV set growth products are beginning to decline.
Most recently OMDIA reduced its expectations for Samsung’s Mini-LED TV shipment target from between 3m and 3.5m to just 3m and while the category is still seeing massive growth (8.3m units this year up from 1.9m last year), trimming the more aggressive targets seems the case recently, although the growth in the category is still massive. Mini-LED is also applicable to IT products, typically monitors and laptops, where shipments are expected to grow by 45.5% this year to 20.8m units but only by 3% in 2023, leading to a decline in Mini-LED IT shipments in 2024 and 2025, under the scenario that despite Apple’s increased use of Mini-LED going forward, the company will shift to OLED in those later years.
But the increase in inflation and overall uncertainty over the war in Ukraine has made consumers even more careful about spending and the TV space has also not been spared from similar inventory issues and target cuts. While it is not surprising that the bulk of the shipment reductions would be LCD based, given its dominant share of the set market, both Mini-LED and OLED TVs are expected to see continued growth this year of what is expected to be a 270m to 280m unit market. Unfortunately, the malaise that has set over the TV market since the end of 1Q continues to extend and estimates for both of those TV set growth products are beginning to decline.
Most recently OMDIA reduced its expectations for Samsung’s Mini-LED TV shipment target from between 3m and 3.5m to just 3m and while the category is still seeing massive growth (8.3m units this year up from 1.9m last year), trimming the more aggressive targets seems the case recently, although the growth in the category is still massive. Mini-LED is also applicable to IT products, typically monitors and laptops, where shipments are expected to grow by 45.5% this year to 20.8m units but only by 3% in 2023, leading to a decline in Mini-LED IT shipments in 2024 and 2025, under the scenario that despite Apple’s increased use of Mini-LED going forward, the company will shift to OLED in those later years.
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