Private Eyes
Trackers have always been a part of history, with the tracking of animal food sources playing a pivotal part of human existence, but as technology has developed, particularly after the Russian satellite Sputnik was launched in October 1957, scientists and engineers realized that they could calculate location based on satellite location, and eventually launching atomic clocks into space that laid the groundwork for GPS satellite systems that are used today. The global GPS system relies on satellites that are placed precisely 11,000 miles above the earth and therefore orbit once every 12 hours, but there are a number of global satellite systems beside GPS (run by the US Department of Defense), such as GLONASS (run by the Russian Federal Space Agency), Galileo (run by a number of EU countries), Beidou (run by the Chinese government), IRNSS (run by the Indian government), and QZSS (run by the Japanese government). Many of these systems have both military and civilian users and have become essential to the military as they are the basis for many targeting systems, while in civilian use, they tend to be used for geo-location and asset tracking.
As technology continued to develop, particularly with the popularity of smartphones, other tracking systems have been developed, although there are many GPS tracking devices and systems available to both individuals and commercial users for a variety of uses and prices, ranging from ~$30 for a 2.3” tracking disc and software, to larger and more powerful devices that can be used to track assets such as cars and shipping containers. As these devices are powered internally, they have a finite lifespan, which runs from 1-2 weeks for a device that is always on and sending notifications, to 6 months for those that operate in low-power mode, with more limited communication ability.
A small company, Tile (LIFX) had been producing consumer tracking devices using Blue-tooth low-energy tracking since 2013, which had a range of ~100’ but included a system where any Tile user who was within 100’ of a lost Tile device would trigger an anonymous message to the owner, giving the location without the non-owner knowing (known as “crowd GPS”). The idea was to attach a Tile tracker to common devices, such as keys or a TV remote, to make sure they were always able to be found, however, in 2019 it became apparent to developers that Apple (AAPL) had included in its iOS 13 release, a number of references to a product then known as B389, which fit with rumors that Apple had been developing a personal tracking device that would operate under iOS and use Apple’s in-house U1 chip that appeared in the iPhone 11.
The Apple system used a different technology called UWB or Ultra-Wideband, which differs from standard radio transmission and Bluetooth, both of which use narrow frequency bands and transmit data continuously. UWB broadcasts a signal that is pulsed but occupies a large frequency band, allowing it to be more powerful and carry more information without interfering with other devices. This increased power is spread across a wide frequency band and appears as noise to other receiving devices but allows the system greater range as shown in the table below.
As technology continued to develop, particularly with the popularity of smartphones, other tracking systems have been developed, although there are many GPS tracking devices and systems available to both individuals and commercial users for a variety of uses and prices, ranging from ~$30 for a 2.3” tracking disc and software, to larger and more powerful devices that can be used to track assets such as cars and shipping containers. As these devices are powered internally, they have a finite lifespan, which runs from 1-2 weeks for a device that is always on and sending notifications, to 6 months for those that operate in low-power mode, with more limited communication ability.
A small company, Tile (LIFX) had been producing consumer tracking devices using Blue-tooth low-energy tracking since 2013, which had a range of ~100’ but included a system where any Tile user who was within 100’ of a lost Tile device would trigger an anonymous message to the owner, giving the location without the non-owner knowing (known as “crowd GPS”). The idea was to attach a Tile tracker to common devices, such as keys or a TV remote, to make sure they were always able to be found, however, in 2019 it became apparent to developers that Apple (AAPL) had included in its iOS 13 release, a number of references to a product then known as B389, which fit with rumors that Apple had been developing a personal tracking device that would operate under iOS and use Apple’s in-house U1 chip that appeared in the iPhone 11.
The Apple system used a different technology called UWB or Ultra-Wideband, which differs from standard radio transmission and Bluetooth, both of which use narrow frequency bands and transmit data continuously. UWB broadcasts a signal that is pulsed but occupies a large frequency band, allowing it to be more powerful and carry more information without interfering with other devices. This increased power is spread across a wide frequency band and appears as noise to other receiving devices but allows the system greater range as shown in the table below.
While other major CE brands have come out with their own UWB trackers, and a number of smaller companies continue to supply devices, Apple is so ubiquitous that we expect they dominate the space, although we are hard pressed to find accurate shipment numbers for the entire UWB tracker space or for Apple’s AirTags. Most estimates center around 20m units in 2021 and an expected 35m units last year, but there is little hard data that can be verified. That said, there seems to be a resurgence in the idea that Google (GOOG) will be joining the UWB tracker race with its own tracker.
The project, supposedly titled “Grogu” or G10, after the character in “The Mandalorian” TV series, is part of the company’s “Find My Device” initiative. As Google purchased Nest (pvt) in 2014, the idea of a more connected home is essential to Nest’s success and in a 2022 Android update, Google included code that made obvious the company’s intention to popularize UWB by giving Android developers UWB hooks into the OS. That said, we suspect the initial UWB focus was to enable connectivity between Nest and Google devices, such as to allowing a Google smartphone used as a music source, to move from one room to another, with speakers in each room able to instantly recognize the source and seamlessly continuing to play the music.
We note also that the Google Pixel 7Pro (10/22) and the Pixel 6 Pro (10/21) smartphones are both UWB enabled, and while we have no real timetable for Google’s entry into the UWB tag market, the logic seems apparent. With Android supporting ~70% of the of the smartphone world, Google has a more reasonable chance of encroaching on Apple’s personal tracker dominance than most others, and while the iPhone network gives life to Apple’s AirTag abilities, if Google releases its own tracking device, it will eventually have access to all Android phones that have UWB capabilities. It is a bit of a chicken and egg scenario, but Google’s Android share gives them a good shot going forward.
The project, supposedly titled “Grogu” or G10, after the character in “The Mandalorian” TV series, is part of the company’s “Find My Device” initiative. As Google purchased Nest (pvt) in 2014, the idea of a more connected home is essential to Nest’s success and in a 2022 Android update, Google included code that made obvious the company’s intention to popularize UWB by giving Android developers UWB hooks into the OS. That said, we suspect the initial UWB focus was to enable connectivity between Nest and Google devices, such as to allowing a Google smartphone used as a music source, to move from one room to another, with speakers in each room able to instantly recognize the source and seamlessly continuing to play the music.
We note also that the Google Pixel 7Pro (10/22) and the Pixel 6 Pro (10/21) smartphones are both UWB enabled, and while we have no real timetable for Google’s entry into the UWB tag market, the logic seems apparent. With Android supporting ~70% of the of the smartphone world, Google has a more reasonable chance of encroaching on Apple’s personal tracker dominance than most others, and while the iPhone network gives life to Apple’s AirTag abilities, if Google releases its own tracking device, it will eventually have access to all Android phones that have UWB capabilities. It is a bit of a chicken and egg scenario, but Google’s Android share gives them a good shot going forward.
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