Reality Bites – Real World 5G – mmWave
While the US has three major carriers that advertise mmWave 5G services, they are not the same. A recent survey by Opensignal indicates that Verizon’s (VZ) mmWave average download speed is ~3 times faster than mmWave 5G from AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS), at ~693Mbps. With Verizon having substantially more mmWave 5G spectrum than other carriers after the last auction, and an emphasis on the higher C-band spectrum, it is not surprising that their download speeds are so much higher, however that doesn’t always translate into a more robust experience for the user.
The problem stems from the relatively short distance that mmWave signals can travel before being blocked by, well, almost anything, which means that high-band mmWave coverage is very limited relative to low band mmWave, which contributes to the cost and feasibility of building out high-band mmWave infrastructure. The good news, at least for Verizon, is that their users are able to connect to mmWave 5G 0.8% of the time they are connected to the network, and while this might seem exceedingly small, it represents a 100% increase from the survey taken last June. AT&T and T-Mobile users were able to connect to mmWave 0.5% of the time, similar to Verizon’s scorer last year.
We know of 25 smartphone models that have been released since the beginning of 2020 that included mmWave high band modems, so there is really no device limitation for those that wish to take part in mmWave 5G, but we caution those to keep expectations low as to how much mmWave will add to a user’s 5G experience, at least as a mobile service. 5G mmWave for FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) is another animal however, and factory or building-wide installations of this type are far easier to control and cover, despite the fact that walls provide the same limitations as exterior blockages. Interior issues can be overcome using a number of wired and wireless solutions that are not possible outside of a structure. That said, users should not expect consistent high download speeds from any mobile mmWave network yet, unless they are under an in-house network. Once outside, its either going to be low-band mmWave or back to 4G most of the time, although we do expect more models with both sub6 and mmWave capabilities over the next 12 months, and continued mmWave installations, but it will still be some time before one can drive a distance while staying connected to mmWave networks.
The problem stems from the relatively short distance that mmWave signals can travel before being blocked by, well, almost anything, which means that high-band mmWave coverage is very limited relative to low band mmWave, which contributes to the cost and feasibility of building out high-band mmWave infrastructure. The good news, at least for Verizon, is that their users are able to connect to mmWave 5G 0.8% of the time they are connected to the network, and while this might seem exceedingly small, it represents a 100% increase from the survey taken last June. AT&T and T-Mobile users were able to connect to mmWave 0.5% of the time, similar to Verizon’s scorer last year.
We know of 25 smartphone models that have been released since the beginning of 2020 that included mmWave high band modems, so there is really no device limitation for those that wish to take part in mmWave 5G, but we caution those to keep expectations low as to how much mmWave will add to a user’s 5G experience, at least as a mobile service. 5G mmWave for FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) is another animal however, and factory or building-wide installations of this type are far easier to control and cover, despite the fact that walls provide the same limitations as exterior blockages. Interior issues can be overcome using a number of wired and wireless solutions that are not possible outside of a structure. That said, users should not expect consistent high download speeds from any mobile mmWave network yet, unless they are under an in-house network. Once outside, its either going to be low-band mmWave or back to 4G most of the time, although we do expect more models with both sub6 and mmWave capabilities over the next 12 months, and continued mmWave installations, but it will still be some time before one can drive a distance while staying connected to mmWave networks.
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