Samsung Mini-QD TV – The Party’s Not Over
Since May when Samsung (005930.KS) released much of its Mini-LED/QD TV line, we have tracked model pricing. This has given us insight into both the initial pricing and how that was received by consumers, and how Samsung has adjusted those prices to both try to stimulate sales and compete with offerings from other brands. Earlier this month we posted what we thought were Samsung’s last round of price changes, which increased rather than decreased for the first time. At that point we figured that Samsung had found a sweet spot for the Mini-LED/QD line and that prices would hold at that point at least for a while.
We were wrong, and it looks like Samsung is still looking for the optimal price point for the line and has returned to reducing prices back to their lowest points, and some with first time discounts. While this data is particular to Samsung TV pricing in the US, we expect a similar situation in other countries as Samsung searches for the right pricing. We note that Samsung is now competing with LG Electronics (066570.KS) as we noted in our last update, and has always been competing with TCL (000100.CH), who was the first to offer Mini-TV sets, is on their 3rd iteration, and has been the low price leader in the space.
The pricing data reveals a number of points.
Mid-price -1.1%
Low-price -0.5%
75” -14.9%
65” -13.3%
55” -14.6%
50” -6.7%
Based on what we have seen so far, we expect the original Samsung Mini-LED/QD pricing premise was “Let’s start high and see what happens.” Within a month of what was a relatively limited release in the US, Samsung began to discount selected models every two to three weeks. While a few models saw price drop earlier this month, many that had been discounted, some a number of times, saw modest price increases. This led us to the conclusion that Samsung had found a spot where volumes met their expectations and were testing the waters to see if they had any leeway to push Mini-LED/QD set prices up a bit. We expect that the introduction of LG’s Mini-LED/QD line changed the picture, giving consumer a choice, which in both 8K and 4K Mini-LED/QD models was equal to or lower than Samsung’s models.
Logically, Samsung needs to better compete with LG’s offerings and therefore seems to have returned to discounting to find a more competitive level. Given that the cost of the Mini-LED backlight modules is still a large variable given the relatively low unit volumes, we expect there is considerable play in Mini-LED/QD set margins, allowing Samsung to continue to adjust pricing. While we expect retailers are passing weekly sales data to Samsung, along with sales data from its own website, we are surprised that pricing has varied as much as it has, and when compared to Samsung’s recent QD only offerings, which have seen no discounting in most cases, and a single round of small discounts in others, the number of discounts in such a short period of time for the Mini-LED lines seem to indicate that Samsung is still chumming the waters until it gets a bigger bite.
We were wrong, and it looks like Samsung is still looking for the optimal price point for the line and has returned to reducing prices back to their lowest points, and some with first time discounts. While this data is particular to Samsung TV pricing in the US, we expect a similar situation in other countries as Samsung searches for the right pricing. We note that Samsung is now competing with LG Electronics (066570.KS) as we noted in our last update, and has always been competing with TCL (000100.CH), who was the first to offer Mini-TV sets, is on their 3rd iteration, and has been the low price leader in the space.
The pricing data reveals a number of points.
- 21 (63.6%) of the 33 models we track have seen discounts from their original price
- 16 (48.5%) of the 33 models we track are at their pricing low point, which implies 76.2% of those that have received a discount from their original price are at their low point.
- 1 (3.0%) of the 33 models we track is higher than its original price.
- All Mini-LED/QD models have received discounts.
- 11 (73.3%) of the 15 Mini-LED/QD models we track are at their lowest price points
- 5 (83.3%) of the 6 8K Mini-LED/QD models we track are at their lowest price points
- 6 (66.7%) of the 9 4K Mini-LED/QD models we track are at their lowest price points
- The average discount from original prices for the 8K Mini-LED/QD models is 14.3%
- The average discount from original prices for the 4K Mini-LED/QD models is 15.0%
- The average discount for models that are only 4K (no Mini-LED) are as follows:
Mid-price -1.1%
Low-price -0.5%
- Among the Mini-LED/QD models discounts by size are as follows:
75” -14.9%
65” -13.3%
55” -14.6%
50” -6.7%
Based on what we have seen so far, we expect the original Samsung Mini-LED/QD pricing premise was “Let’s start high and see what happens.” Within a month of what was a relatively limited release in the US, Samsung began to discount selected models every two to three weeks. While a few models saw price drop earlier this month, many that had been discounted, some a number of times, saw modest price increases. This led us to the conclusion that Samsung had found a spot where volumes met their expectations and were testing the waters to see if they had any leeway to push Mini-LED/QD set prices up a bit. We expect that the introduction of LG’s Mini-LED/QD line changed the picture, giving consumer a choice, which in both 8K and 4K Mini-LED/QD models was equal to or lower than Samsung’s models.
Logically, Samsung needs to better compete with LG’s offerings and therefore seems to have returned to discounting to find a more competitive level. Given that the cost of the Mini-LED backlight modules is still a large variable given the relatively low unit volumes, we expect there is considerable play in Mini-LED/QD set margins, allowing Samsung to continue to adjust pricing. While we expect retailers are passing weekly sales data to Samsung, along with sales data from its own website, we are surprised that pricing has varied as much as it has, and when compared to Samsung’s recent QD only offerings, which have seen no discounting in most cases, and a single round of small discounts in others, the number of discounts in such a short period of time for the Mini-LED lines seem to indicate that Samsung is still chumming the waters until it gets a bigger bite.
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