Semiconductor Particle Physics (Not What You Think)
The global semiconductor supply chain has been in a bit of disarray as COVID-19 lifestyle changes rejiggered what we are able to do with our time. Demand for silicon based products heretofore has outstripped capacity, pushing out lead times and increasing prices to the point where downstream production becomes affected. The US government has undertaken a 100 day ‘study’ to better understand how this supply chain disruption occurred and how it might be prevented in the future. As part of the study, the Department of Commerce asked a multitude of semiconductor producers and related companies to fill out a questionnaire as we detailed in our 10/25/21 note. As the ‘voluntary’ responses are due on November 8, we checked to see what kind of information has been submitted.
Out of the many requests that were sent out, only a small number have been received, and only 13 fall into the ‘available for public viewing’ category, meaning the rest had some type of proprietary information that limited their viewing to government officials. Some were from private institutions such as the Cornell Nanoscale Science & Technology Facility in Ithaca, which presented 5 paragraphs of general information that looked like it had been copied from an “About us” on the program’s website, as was the single paragraph from Notre Dame and University of California – Berkley, who actually broke out some information as to technology nodes, semiconductor materials used, and device types produced, as did Northwest Nazarene University (Nampa, Idaho).
There were a few comments from individuals, one of which came from a Chinese-American individual that was unusual in that it was more of a personal declaration that hinted at governmental control, not by the Chinese government but by the US, which began, “I advertise, market, and promote semiconductors and its applications to solving problems, such as automation and computing. I am a first generation Chinese American, and on many occasions since 2016 people in the United States have been attempting to forcibly separate me from the supply chain. However, my family background and responsibilities are stronger than that, which I continue to promote the use of semiconductors to solve modern world problems. I have extensive knowledge and experience on the individual use of semiconductors, and I intentionally extend the use of semiconductors to promote its manufacturing and sale in China.” He goes on a bit further with “I was born and raised in the United States of America. The US or state government and Department of Defense have been pulling my strings since the late 1990s when I was a child. I have been mentored by "ghosts" and "paranormal activity" who have assisted me in providing intelligence and information on problems to solve. These, in turn, revealed more problems that needed to be solved. I have been able to cross-verify my solutions to these problems through movies, television, and other media. Today, being single, unmarried, childless, without a romantic partner continues to motivate my endeavors to challenge the boundaries of the United States and promote the use of semiconductor technology”. We doubt this is what the study was looking for, but it did call for public comments.
There were a few responses from public companies that left some information in public view. Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) gave technology node and sales by application, while ASE Technology (3711.TT) in Taiwan kept all but address confidential, and FAIST Anlagenbau Gmbh (pvt), a company that provides noise reduction systems and measurement tools for industrial equipment stated “We only order complete electrical items where semiconductors could possibly be installed” which ended their submission. While we are not privy to the information submitted under the ‘confidential’ category, there has been considerable consternation among semiconductor supply chain companies, both in the US and globally, as to how much information they would be willing to reveal. The information request forms sent by the Commerce Department ask for considerable detail (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2), almost all of which would be considered proprietary, which leaves each company to decide whether to comply and with how much information.
We would expect much of the forms will be left blank as this initial request was ‘voluntary’, but the Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, has stated that “‘I don’t want to have to do anything compulsory but if they don’t comply, then they’ll leave me no choice”, which includes invoking the Defense Production Act, the same act that was invoked to step up the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, although how that might be used is still an open question. Early meetings between US government officials and semiconductor companies did not answer questions about how much raw and finished semiconductor inventory had been stockpiled by downstream consumers and why allocations from producers changed almost weekly.
While the semiconductor supply chain is an entity to itself, it’s like particle physics. We know that sub-atomic particles exist and interact, mostly from the results of those interactions, but we don’t know all of the details as to what goes on at every level. While the government can ask all the questions it wants, semiconductor supply chain participants are like those sub-atomic particles in that they don’t reveal their secrets easily and require considerable effort to make that happen. We doubt the US government has the power or willingness to go further and pressure the very companies it is trying to assess, but given the concept that the semiconductor industry is self-correcting over time and the government works quite slowly, it could turn out to be a moot point.
Out of the many requests that were sent out, only a small number have been received, and only 13 fall into the ‘available for public viewing’ category, meaning the rest had some type of proprietary information that limited their viewing to government officials. Some were from private institutions such as the Cornell Nanoscale Science & Technology Facility in Ithaca, which presented 5 paragraphs of general information that looked like it had been copied from an “About us” on the program’s website, as was the single paragraph from Notre Dame and University of California – Berkley, who actually broke out some information as to technology nodes, semiconductor materials used, and device types produced, as did Northwest Nazarene University (Nampa, Idaho).
There were a few comments from individuals, one of which came from a Chinese-American individual that was unusual in that it was more of a personal declaration that hinted at governmental control, not by the Chinese government but by the US, which began, “I advertise, market, and promote semiconductors and its applications to solving problems, such as automation and computing. I am a first generation Chinese American, and on many occasions since 2016 people in the United States have been attempting to forcibly separate me from the supply chain. However, my family background and responsibilities are stronger than that, which I continue to promote the use of semiconductors to solve modern world problems. I have extensive knowledge and experience on the individual use of semiconductors, and I intentionally extend the use of semiconductors to promote its manufacturing and sale in China.” He goes on a bit further with “I was born and raised in the United States of America. The US or state government and Department of Defense have been pulling my strings since the late 1990s when I was a child. I have been mentored by "ghosts" and "paranormal activity" who have assisted me in providing intelligence and information on problems to solve. These, in turn, revealed more problems that needed to be solved. I have been able to cross-verify my solutions to these problems through movies, television, and other media. Today, being single, unmarried, childless, without a romantic partner continues to motivate my endeavors to challenge the boundaries of the United States and promote the use of semiconductor technology”. We doubt this is what the study was looking for, but it did call for public comments.
There were a few responses from public companies that left some information in public view. Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) gave technology node and sales by application, while ASE Technology (3711.TT) in Taiwan kept all but address confidential, and FAIST Anlagenbau Gmbh (pvt), a company that provides noise reduction systems and measurement tools for industrial equipment stated “We only order complete electrical items where semiconductors could possibly be installed” which ended their submission. While we are not privy to the information submitted under the ‘confidential’ category, there has been considerable consternation among semiconductor supply chain companies, both in the US and globally, as to how much information they would be willing to reveal. The information request forms sent by the Commerce Department ask for considerable detail (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2), almost all of which would be considered proprietary, which leaves each company to decide whether to comply and with how much information.
We would expect much of the forms will be left blank as this initial request was ‘voluntary’, but the Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, has stated that “‘I don’t want to have to do anything compulsory but if they don’t comply, then they’ll leave me no choice”, which includes invoking the Defense Production Act, the same act that was invoked to step up the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, although how that might be used is still an open question. Early meetings between US government officials and semiconductor companies did not answer questions about how much raw and finished semiconductor inventory had been stockpiled by downstream consumers and why allocations from producers changed almost weekly.
While the semiconductor supply chain is an entity to itself, it’s like particle physics. We know that sub-atomic particles exist and interact, mostly from the results of those interactions, but we don’t know all of the details as to what goes on at every level. While the government can ask all the questions it wants, semiconductor supply chain participants are like those sub-atomic particles in that they don’t reveal their secrets easily and require considerable effort to make that happen. We doubt the US government has the power or willingness to go further and pressure the very companies it is trying to assess, but given the concept that the semiconductor industry is self-correcting over time and the government works quite slowly, it could turn out to be a moot point.
US Department of Commerce Semiconductor Information Request Form (BIS-2021-0036) - Source: US DOC
DOC Information Request Form - Customer Information Page - Source: US DOC
RSS Feed