Small Panel OLED Update
Small panel OLED demand increased display shipments in 3Q by 26.6% (16.5% y/y), with flexible OLED displays driving almost all of the q/q shipment growth. The biggest increase from the demand side came from Apple (AAPL), who more than doubled its small panel flexible OLED panel purchases in 3Q in preparation for the iPhone 13 rollout, and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) whose purchases were up 50% q/q. Chinese brand small panel flexible OLED purchases were mixed, with Huawei (pvt) and Oppo (pvt) declining, and Xiaomi (1810.HK), Vivo (pvt), and Honor (pvt) increasing, albeit at much lower volumes, as shown in Fig. 1 – 3[1].
On the supply side Samsung Display (pvt) saw a 101% q/q increase (+15.7% y/y) in flexible panels shipped in 3Q while LG Display (LPL) saw a 43.0% increase q/q (+68.5% y/y) as they fed the Apple iPhone supply chain, while BOE (200725.CH) saw an 8.1% q/q increase (+58.4% y/y). BOE has recently celebrated its official entry into Apple’s iPhone OLED display supply chain, which will likely lead to improving shipments in 4Q. Samsung Display’s share of the small panel flexible OLED market returned to 62.2%, a more normalized level, after a weak 2Q (47.6% share), although down from last year’s 3Q share of 70.0%, and the combined South Korean suppliers garnered 74.8% of the small panel flexible OLED panel production market, with the remaining 25.2% belonging to combined Chinese small panel flexible OLED suppliers. When looking at both the rigid and flexible small panel composite, Samsung Display holds a 71.5% share with Chinese suppliers at 21.0% vs. 17.0% in 3Q last year.
On an overall basis, small panel OLED production continues to grow despite weak overall smartphone sales as the overall share of small panel OLED continues to grow across the smartphone market, reaching over 50% in 3Q based on our composite small panel OLED shipment data and our composite smartphone shipment data. This year the number of mobile devices other than smartphones that are using OLED displays continues to grow, particularly notebooks, and while this will not have a significant impact on unit volume, it will continue to increment area shipments, which set the tone for capacity expansion plans. There are few OLED suppliers that are not expanding capacity, and while much of these plans are for IT based OLED products, we expect the small panel and large panel OLED markets to become more converged as Gen 6 OLED fabs, usually used for small panel OLED production, are still efficient up to 32” panel sizes, making them viable for many IT products which might be considered ‘large panel’. All in, OLED growth continues based on share growth in more mature applications and to early stage penetration in new mobile device markets.
[1] Note: Figs. 1 -3 are all drawn to the same scale to show the lower proportion of rigid OLED displays compared to flexible OLED displays.
On the supply side Samsung Display (pvt) saw a 101% q/q increase (+15.7% y/y) in flexible panels shipped in 3Q while LG Display (LPL) saw a 43.0% increase q/q (+68.5% y/y) as they fed the Apple iPhone supply chain, while BOE (200725.CH) saw an 8.1% q/q increase (+58.4% y/y). BOE has recently celebrated its official entry into Apple’s iPhone OLED display supply chain, which will likely lead to improving shipments in 4Q. Samsung Display’s share of the small panel flexible OLED market returned to 62.2%, a more normalized level, after a weak 2Q (47.6% share), although down from last year’s 3Q share of 70.0%, and the combined South Korean suppliers garnered 74.8% of the small panel flexible OLED panel production market, with the remaining 25.2% belonging to combined Chinese small panel flexible OLED suppliers. When looking at both the rigid and flexible small panel composite, Samsung Display holds a 71.5% share with Chinese suppliers at 21.0% vs. 17.0% in 3Q last year.
On an overall basis, small panel OLED production continues to grow despite weak overall smartphone sales as the overall share of small panel OLED continues to grow across the smartphone market, reaching over 50% in 3Q based on our composite small panel OLED shipment data and our composite smartphone shipment data. This year the number of mobile devices other than smartphones that are using OLED displays continues to grow, particularly notebooks, and while this will not have a significant impact on unit volume, it will continue to increment area shipments, which set the tone for capacity expansion plans. There are few OLED suppliers that are not expanding capacity, and while much of these plans are for IT based OLED products, we expect the small panel and large panel OLED markets to become more converged as Gen 6 OLED fabs, usually used for small panel OLED production, are still efficient up to 32” panel sizes, making them viable for many IT products which might be considered ‘large panel’. All in, OLED growth continues based on share growth in more mature applications and to early stage penetration in new mobile device markets.
[1] Note: Figs. 1 -3 are all drawn to the same scale to show the lower proportion of rigid OLED displays compared to flexible OLED displays.
Flexible OLED Shipments by Brand (Small Panel) - Source: SCMR LLC, Stone Partners
Rigid OLED Shipments by Brand (Small Panel) - Source: SCMR LLC, Stone Partners
Composite OLED Shipments by Brand (Small Panel) - Source: SCMR LLC, Stone Partners
Composite Small Panel OLED Display Production - Source: SCMR LLC, Stone Partners
Composite Small Panel OLED Share - Source: SCMR LLC, Stone Partners
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