Smartphone OLED Shipments – Modifications

Smartphone OLED Shipments – Modifications
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​As we gather more data on 3Q OLED smartphone shipments, we get more of an understanding as to the discrepancies in such data between sources.  While we believe that in the case of LCD panels, where there are many variations, small panel OLED displays are less varied and should therefore be easier to track.  In theory that seems correct given that the distinct difference between rigid OLED and flexible OLED as to substrate should simplify calculations, as long as foldable OLED is included, but we see a much bigger difference between shipment estimates, both in the 3rd quarter and in previous quarters.  Last week we noted our expectations for 3Q small panel shipments, but feel investors would be better served with a range that would allow for some of the differences in estimates that we have found.
Based on that concept we offer slightly modified estimates for 3Q small panel OLED shipments:

• OLED smartphone panel shipments in 3Q – Between 160m and 165m units, which would be up between 23% and 25% q/q and between 14% and 31% y/y.
• Samsung Display (pvt) dominated small panel OLED shipments with between 62% and 64% of flexible panel shipments
• Samsung further dominated shipments for small panel rigid OLED rigid displays with a share between 83% and 86%.
• Apple’s (AAPL) portion of total small panel OLED shipments in 3Q was between 34% and 37%
• Apple’s portion of Samsung Display’s small panel flexible OLED shipments was between 65% and 68%.

Some of the biggest discrepancies between estimates were with 2020 quarterly small panel OLED shipments, where differences ranged between 0.5% and 14.6%, while this year the range was between 1.6% and 8.1%.  We expect the range between estimates for this year will expand a bit further as we access some of the more aggressive estimates from China, so we will continue to work with ranges, especially as smartphone brands adjust their full year smartphone shipment targets, but we expect the estimate differences, on a longer-term basis, to narrow in 2022.