Speaking of OLED…
While the data we have on small panel OLED display demand is preliminary in that it represents only the rigid small panel display market, it is a bit disturbing in that actual 2Q small panel rigid OLED display demand was quite a bit below expectations. We do note that rigid small panel OLED display share continues to decline, falling from 47.2% in 2020 to 44.0% last year and 38.2% in 2Q ’22, so the flexible small panel OLED business would be more representative of the overall small panel OLED display space, however the drop off in small panel rigid demand in 2Q was far greater than expected, pushing down 3Q expectations, and could portend 2Q small panel flexible display actual results and similarly lowered 3Q expectations.
Based on our data, 2Q small panel OLED rigid display demand was 25.9% below expectations, putting it down 19.5% q/q and down 33.2% y/y, led by a substantial difference between actual demand and 2Q expectations from Samsung (-37.4%) and Xiaomi (1810.HK) (-21.4%). 3Q expectations for small panel rigid OLED demand is now expected to decline by 25.9% q/q which implies a 46.5% decline in small panel rigid OLED demand on a y/y basis. Again, rigid OLED is only 38.2% (2Q) of total small panel OLED display demand, but with 2Q actuals coming in so far below expectations for rigid small panel OLED, it is noteworthy in that we expect similar results from small panel flexible OLED data over the next week or so. While much of the trade talk has been on the effect of inflation on demand in the LCD space, it looks like the small panel OLED display space was not spared based on this preliminary data.
Based on our data, 2Q small panel OLED rigid display demand was 25.9% below expectations, putting it down 19.5% q/q and down 33.2% y/y, led by a substantial difference between actual demand and 2Q expectations from Samsung (-37.4%) and Xiaomi (1810.HK) (-21.4%). 3Q expectations for small panel rigid OLED demand is now expected to decline by 25.9% q/q which implies a 46.5% decline in small panel rigid OLED demand on a y/y basis. Again, rigid OLED is only 38.2% (2Q) of total small panel OLED display demand, but with 2Q actuals coming in so far below expectations for rigid small panel OLED, it is noteworthy in that we expect similar results from small panel flexible OLED data over the next week or so. While much of the trade talk has been on the effect of inflation on demand in the LCD space, it looks like the small panel OLED display space was not spared based on this preliminary data.
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