That Was Then, This is Now
"The adoption of 5G will [be] even faster than what we saw on 4G, which was already fairly fast."[1]
"5G is the fundamental platform for the fourth industrial revolution and will become an integral part of societies and civil infrastructures, just like roads, energy and transportation."[2]
"Every generation of wireless technology has brought a huge and largely unseen step forward in innovation. 2G brought us two-way texting. 3G brought us high-quality digital voicemail. 4G bought us Waze, Uber and DoorDash, none of which were envisioned when 4G was rolled out. So 5G is really going to bring us things that we haven’t even imagined yet."[3]
"5G will be the platform linking billions of devices together."[4]
"The arrival of 5G-enabling smart devices will change the way we live, work, and think in fascinating, new ways."[5]
"5G networking is being phased in and will be transformative to society."[6]
Back in 2019, when 5G was first released, it was to be a game changer, providing a high-speed gateway into a new world of devices and applications with unmatched speed and the capacity to link together, well, almost everything. The promise of a new era of VR was particularly emphasized, with real-time multiplayer gaming, live VR events, and remote collaboration revolutionizing how we are entertained and work, along with the promise of a new healthcare model that allowed doctors to perform complex surgery remotely. All part of the 5G hype.
Now that 5G has been around for 5+ years, how much of that came true and how much was justification for the spending that carriers knew was coming as 5G rollouts began? The answer is that neither the glass half full or the glass half empty crowd had any clue about 5G at the time, but they do now. Fierce Wireless just completed a survey of 176 telco executives (36% are decision makers, 64% are decision influencers) who made their opinion concerning 5G quite plain.
The good news is
The survey says the number one use for 5G is for Fixed Wireless Access, the process by which 5G connects a fiber-optic or microwave backhaul to a local base station which uses 5G’s bandwidth to wirelessly connect to 5G antennas on houses or businesses, which is then connected to an internal modem at each location. This allows 5G’s high speed and low latency without the high cost of fiber or cable installation, along with rapid deployment time. 48% of telco executives believe that FWA is the key 5G application. There are limitations for FWA, particularly the need for line-of-sight between base stations and consumer nodes, but FWA is expected to reach over 98m connections this year (global) compared to over 58m last year.
The 2nd most important 5G application, according to telco executives, is network slicing (33%). Network slicing uses software to define customized virtual networks that share the same physical 5G infrastructure but are isolated from each other. This allows the 5G spectrum to be used most efficiently, without allocating static network blocks that are not used consistently. This is a great plus for carriers as they can reallocate 5G bandwidth to those customers experiencing high demand and remove it from those with low demand. That said, in order for 5G network slicing to be effective the 5G infrastructure that it is operating on has to be 5G standalone (SA), not 5G NSA (Non-standalone), a 5G overlay on top of 4G LTE infrastructure. The majority of global 5G infrastructure is still NSA and SA is not expected to become the dominant technology until 2028. The 3rd most important 5G application to telco executives is private wireless, which allows for a completely secure network (24%) and is more profitable for carriers.
When asked about what have been the biggest barriers to 5G deployment there were few surprises with cost having the highest percentage at 39%, followed by 29% citing a lack of in-house 5G expertise. But when it came to the question of how important 5G is to enterprise customers, not surprisingly, 78% of carriers executives said either ‘critical’ or ‘important’ with only 22% calling it ‘one of many factors or ‘don’t care’. Of course, when asking that question to those whose livelihood depends on 5G, it should be expected that there will be some bias.
As par for the course, there was a question about AI in relation to 5G, and while we expected AI-based network slicing to be the winner (it was at 24%) AI-based predictive maintenance came in a close 2nd at 22%, with only 9% citing the use of chatbots to enhance customer support or the overall customer experience. When the final question came up, it was easier to see a bit of frustration with 5G come to the surface. The final question was “Do you see a need for 6G in 2030?” 51% said yes, as new applications will require it, but 43% said no, with 5G advanced being sufficient and 6% saying they did not even want to hear about 6G.
As with most new technologies, the tendency is to overpromise and underperform, and while that seems to be the case with 5G at least to some, consumers seem oblivious. While they are able to download a game or video faster and are likely to see less ‘loading’ time for videos, 5G applications are primarily higher level applications that carriers would find most beneficial. What is surprising to us is how slowly 5G has been deployed globally, despite the hype in the early days, but given that cost was the biggest sticking point for carrier deployment and the fact that not all carriers seem to be making money from 5G, it is logical that deployment has slowed from the days when it was imperative that we install 5G faster than China. Does that sound strangely familiar?
BTW, we admit that we had expected mmWave 5G (much higher frequency, leading to higher speed, expanded bandwidth and even lower latency) would be even more popular than sub-6. We were wrong as mmWave was just too expensive to support itself, as the base station to base station distance is only 600 to 1200 feet, making it only suitable in urban areas and stadiums, so we cut the carriers a little slack…
[1] Ignacio Contreras, Qualcomm’s director of marketing for 5G
[2] Top executives at Verizon
[3] Dolan Beckel, director of the Office of Civic Innovation and Digital Strategy for the city of San José, Calif.
[4] Serhat Terzioğlu, at the World Economic Forum in Davos
[5] Business Today
[6] Streaming Media
"5G is the fundamental platform for the fourth industrial revolution and will become an integral part of societies and civil infrastructures, just like roads, energy and transportation."[2]
"Every generation of wireless technology has brought a huge and largely unseen step forward in innovation. 2G brought us two-way texting. 3G brought us high-quality digital voicemail. 4G bought us Waze, Uber and DoorDash, none of which were envisioned when 4G was rolled out. So 5G is really going to bring us things that we haven’t even imagined yet."[3]
"5G will be the platform linking billions of devices together."[4]
"The arrival of 5G-enabling smart devices will change the way we live, work, and think in fascinating, new ways."[5]
"5G networking is being phased in and will be transformative to society."[6]
Back in 2019, when 5G was first released, it was to be a game changer, providing a high-speed gateway into a new world of devices and applications with unmatched speed and the capacity to link together, well, almost everything. The promise of a new era of VR was particularly emphasized, with real-time multiplayer gaming, live VR events, and remote collaboration revolutionizing how we are entertained and work, along with the promise of a new healthcare model that allowed doctors to perform complex surgery remotely. All part of the 5G hype.
Now that 5G has been around for 5+ years, how much of that came true and how much was justification for the spending that carriers knew was coming as 5G rollouts began? The answer is that neither the glass half full or the glass half empty crowd had any clue about 5G at the time, but they do now. Fierce Wireless just completed a survey of 176 telco executives (36% are decision makers, 64% are decision influencers) who made their opinion concerning 5G quite plain.
The good news is
- 10% said they believe 5G has been ‘Extremely successful’
- 23% said 5G has been ‘Successful with good ROI’
- 60% said they have had ‘limited success with 5G so far’ (They see it as a long-term return product).
- 7% say they are disappointed with 5G.
The survey says the number one use for 5G is for Fixed Wireless Access, the process by which 5G connects a fiber-optic or microwave backhaul to a local base station which uses 5G’s bandwidth to wirelessly connect to 5G antennas on houses or businesses, which is then connected to an internal modem at each location. This allows 5G’s high speed and low latency without the high cost of fiber or cable installation, along with rapid deployment time. 48% of telco executives believe that FWA is the key 5G application. There are limitations for FWA, particularly the need for line-of-sight between base stations and consumer nodes, but FWA is expected to reach over 98m connections this year (global) compared to over 58m last year.
The 2nd most important 5G application, according to telco executives, is network slicing (33%). Network slicing uses software to define customized virtual networks that share the same physical 5G infrastructure but are isolated from each other. This allows the 5G spectrum to be used most efficiently, without allocating static network blocks that are not used consistently. This is a great plus for carriers as they can reallocate 5G bandwidth to those customers experiencing high demand and remove it from those with low demand. That said, in order for 5G network slicing to be effective the 5G infrastructure that it is operating on has to be 5G standalone (SA), not 5G NSA (Non-standalone), a 5G overlay on top of 4G LTE infrastructure. The majority of global 5G infrastructure is still NSA and SA is not expected to become the dominant technology until 2028. The 3rd most important 5G application to telco executives is private wireless, which allows for a completely secure network (24%) and is more profitable for carriers.
When asked about what have been the biggest barriers to 5G deployment there were few surprises with cost having the highest percentage at 39%, followed by 29% citing a lack of in-house 5G expertise. But when it came to the question of how important 5G is to enterprise customers, not surprisingly, 78% of carriers executives said either ‘critical’ or ‘important’ with only 22% calling it ‘one of many factors or ‘don’t care’. Of course, when asking that question to those whose livelihood depends on 5G, it should be expected that there will be some bias.
As par for the course, there was a question about AI in relation to 5G, and while we expected AI-based network slicing to be the winner (it was at 24%) AI-based predictive maintenance came in a close 2nd at 22%, with only 9% citing the use of chatbots to enhance customer support or the overall customer experience. When the final question came up, it was easier to see a bit of frustration with 5G come to the surface. The final question was “Do you see a need for 6G in 2030?” 51% said yes, as new applications will require it, but 43% said no, with 5G advanced being sufficient and 6% saying they did not even want to hear about 6G.
As with most new technologies, the tendency is to overpromise and underperform, and while that seems to be the case with 5G at least to some, consumers seem oblivious. While they are able to download a game or video faster and are likely to see less ‘loading’ time for videos, 5G applications are primarily higher level applications that carriers would find most beneficial. What is surprising to us is how slowly 5G has been deployed globally, despite the hype in the early days, but given that cost was the biggest sticking point for carrier deployment and the fact that not all carriers seem to be making money from 5G, it is logical that deployment has slowed from the days when it was imperative that we install 5G faster than China. Does that sound strangely familiar?
BTW, we admit that we had expected mmWave 5G (much higher frequency, leading to higher speed, expanded bandwidth and even lower latency) would be even more popular than sub-6. We were wrong as mmWave was just too expensive to support itself, as the base station to base station distance is only 600 to 1200 feet, making it only suitable in urban areas and stadiums, so we cut the carriers a little slack…
[1] Ignacio Contreras, Qualcomm’s director of marketing for 5G
[2] Top executives at Verizon
[3] Dolan Beckel, director of the Office of Civic Innovation and Digital Strategy for the city of San José, Calif.
[4] Serhat Terzioğlu, at the World Economic Forum in Davos
[5] Business Today
[6] Streaming Media
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