TV Pricing Survey – Super Bowl Update

TV Pricing Survey – Super Bowl Updat

Last November we took a survey of 4K TVs that were being offered on Best Buy’s (BBY) website.  We collected data concerning brand, model year, screen size, and price, and have updated those prices a number of times since that point, usually at key points in the 2020 and now 2021 ‘holiday’ cycle.  Originally (11/17/2020), there were 68 4K TV models being shown on the site, which we use as our base.  Here’s what we found:

• While non-OLED models have come and gone, all six OLED models remain available and have throughout the survey period.
• Of the 68 sets advertised, 36 were unavailable, either because they were sold out or they were no available within 500 miles of our location.  In the current survey 32 are unavailable or sold out, with 18 of those models remaining unavailable since day one.
• In the original survey, 5 models were from 2018, 20 models were from 2019, and 36 models were from 2020, with 7 models having no indication of model year.  No change currently.
• LG (066570.KS) was the brand most represented in the survey, with 47.1% of units, followed by Sony (SNE), Hisense (600060.CH), and Toshiba (6502.JP), all with 10.3% share.  Samsung saw a mere 7.4% share, with Sharp (6753.JP) the lowest at 1.5%.
• LG and Sony represented all but one of the highest priced sets, with Westinghouse (VIAC), Toshiba, and HiSense much of the bottom tier.
• Of those sets that were unavailable, 30% were LG, 22% Toshiba, 11% Sony, HiSense, and Samsung, with 8% TCL and 4% Vizio (pvt), however almost all of the Toshiba sets that were unavailable at the survey onset remained so throughout.
• Currently, of the 36 models available, 19 (52.8%) were equal to or at their lowest price point since the first survey, while 14 (38.9%) were equal to or at their highest price point, with 3 (8.3%) somewhere between.

Here’s where the data needs to be looked at more carefully, as statistically, as noted above those sets at their lowest price and those at their highest are not so far apart as to being able to draw a definitive pricing conclusion.  However when the data is looked at more carefully, the nuance is revealed.  Looking at the 5 highest priced models, 4 out of 5 at their lowest survey price point, while all 5 of the lowest priced models are at their highest survey price point.  One could draw the conclusion that the lowest tier sets are smaller (lowest tier average size 50.2”), and therefore less desired during a sports venue like the Super Bowl, while the top tier (highest tier average size 74.6”) would be the most desirable, and therefore in demand, pointing to the fact that the ideal purchase time for buying large 4K TVs is right before the Super Bowl, rather than during the holidays, while the ideal time to buy smaller sets would be on or near Black Friday, especially given that the average spread between high and low price points in smaller sets is 16.5%, while the average spread between high and low price points for top tier sets is 11.3%.
While events, such as the Super Bowl, are good buy points for larger TVs, we note that new model announcements made at CES a few weeks back, will also have an effect on TV set prices.  While only a few of the ‘new’ sets are available (usually start showing up in March) and even less have been priced, as they appear next month or in April, those prices will set the tone for 2020 model discounting.  Next Friday begins the Chinese New Year holiday, which could have a small effect on prices of Chinese brands in the US, but we expect the largest influence to be the relative prices and feature sets of the new models from major brands sold in the US going forward.

4K TV Survey - Set Size - Source: SCMR LLC, Best Buy

4K TV Survey - Brand Concentration - Source: SCMR LLC, Best Buy

4K TV Survey - Price Movement - Source: SCMR LLC, Best Buy