TV Shipment See-Saw
As we start to see data on TV shipments for 1Q, a very regional picture is developing (sorry). North America was strong, in fact the strongest 1Q on record, while China and Europe were weak, with the strength attributed to the recent economic stimulus. Total TV set shipments are falling into a range of between 50m and 51.5m sets in 1Q, up from ~45m units in 1Q last year., or up between 11% and 14% y/y, and while TV set prices continue to rise against increasing panel and material costs, some TV set shipment estimates for 2Q are being increased, but not for the right reasons. Those increases are based on the inability of set manufacturers to source both panels and electronic components, which have moved lead times out enough that shipments that should have been made in 1Q have now fallen into 2Q, while at the same time some of the more aggressive yearly set forecasts are coming down slightly.
While most other CE product y/y comparisons are of little value given last year’s unusual 1Q circumstances, TV set sales have been more akin to the stay-at-home mandates seen over the last few quarters, particularly in North America, reflecting a strong desire to be entertained. We do expect rising prices and an inability for brands to aggressively discount to have some effect on 2H sales, although with recent COVID-19 outbreaks and potential lockdowns, it is hard to gauge how much control over the pandemic will be seen in 3Q and 4Q and therefore global demand.
As TV brands make little margin on smaller sets, the tendency is to push toward the ‘premium’ market, defined as over $2,500, but Samsung remains the leader in that space, as it does in the overall TV set market. Samsung (005930.KS) saw roughly 17m units shipped in 1Q, giving it a ~33% share of the global market and a ~47% share of the premium market, much of which was driven by Samsung’s QLED TVs (>2m units in 1Q) where it holds a ~75% share of total QLED TV set shipments, and their domination of the 75” and 80” markets, where they hold a 46.5%[1] and 52.4% share respectively.
While LG Electronics (066570.KS) holds 2nd place in global shipments with ~10m units in 1Q, or roughly 1 19% share, far below Samsung, however LG grew its OLED TV shipments in 1Q over 110% y/y as it ramps production capacity in China and is expected to sell almost 6m OLED TV sets this year, roughly 2/3 of the overall OLED TV market. While Sony (SNE), TCL (000100.CH) and HiSense (600060.CH) were in the top 5, their combined share is just a bit over 22%, while the share of LG and Samsung was over 52%, despite the fact that both company’s panel supplier affiliates have reduced large panel LCD TV production.
[1] OMDIA – 5/25/21
While most other CE product y/y comparisons are of little value given last year’s unusual 1Q circumstances, TV set sales have been more akin to the stay-at-home mandates seen over the last few quarters, particularly in North America, reflecting a strong desire to be entertained. We do expect rising prices and an inability for brands to aggressively discount to have some effect on 2H sales, although with recent COVID-19 outbreaks and potential lockdowns, it is hard to gauge how much control over the pandemic will be seen in 3Q and 4Q and therefore global demand.
As TV brands make little margin on smaller sets, the tendency is to push toward the ‘premium’ market, defined as over $2,500, but Samsung remains the leader in that space, as it does in the overall TV set market. Samsung (005930.KS) saw roughly 17m units shipped in 1Q, giving it a ~33% share of the global market and a ~47% share of the premium market, much of which was driven by Samsung’s QLED TVs (>2m units in 1Q) where it holds a ~75% share of total QLED TV set shipments, and their domination of the 75” and 80” markets, where they hold a 46.5%[1] and 52.4% share respectively.
While LG Electronics (066570.KS) holds 2nd place in global shipments with ~10m units in 1Q, or roughly 1 19% share, far below Samsung, however LG grew its OLED TV shipments in 1Q over 110% y/y as it ramps production capacity in China and is expected to sell almost 6m OLED TV sets this year, roughly 2/3 of the overall OLED TV market. While Sony (SNE), TCL (000100.CH) and HiSense (600060.CH) were in the top 5, their combined share is just a bit over 22%, while the share of LG and Samsung was over 52%, despite the fact that both company’s panel supplier affiliates have reduced large panel LCD TV production.
[1] OMDIA – 5/25/21
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