VR 2022
While it is a bit early to start making predictions for VR in 2022, we expect at least a few more announcements concerning VR or AR headsets, and a number of demos or product releases at CES this week. We believe there are at least 13 VR headsets that have already been announced but have yet to be released, so there is already ample ground for product releases, if brands are actually able to produce what they have previously stated. While all but one of the VR headsets released in 2021 were based on small pitch LCD displays, we expect this year’s crop to be more varied, with at least two Micro-OLED based, and two Micro-LED based headsets, with the remainder being LCD, although we expect quantum dots to be added to at least one display.
We expect this year’[s crop of VR headsets to see a distinct improvement in resolution, likely double the resolution seen on average in those released last year, and while we don’t believe such resolutions (and other metrics) are enough to put VR into the category of a mass production CE product, it does go toward at least improving some of the issues that make VR difficult for a substantial part of the global population. Prices, at least what we know so far, don’t seem to be changing, with the low end expected to be around $500 and the high end over $2,000, but we expect that the focus on the Metaverse will spur a bunch of new headsets that will try to capture a less ‘gamey’ and ‘social’ crowd, that would likely be a bit more cost conscious, although much of the market will still be dominated by well-known brands in 2022. We do note that as resolution increases, the need for higher streaming data rates also increases, which should push headset developers to look toward 5G going forward. No specific plans that we have heard yet, but much will depend on the availability of 5G chipsets designed for VR applications.
One difference that we see this year is more uniformity on VR platforms. In 2021, there were a number of headsets that were based on proprietary platforms, making them more dependent on relationships the platform had with developers and limiting content to a degree. In 2022 it seems that most of the headsets will be based on the Steam VR (pvt) platform, opening smaller brands to the Steam VR catalog and giving consumers an easy and familiar way to buy or stream content, which goes toward making VR easier for rank and file Metaverse participants, who have less desire to work with headsets and more desire to buy stuff. Removing any obstacles to ease-of-use will go toward opening VR up to a larger audience, but it is still our view that a real “Metaverse” is still years off, and the few Metaverse sites associated with companies at CES 2022 indicate that the level of content sophistication is still quite low. While we might have focused more on some of the hardware limitations that surround VR, content is what will generate interest (other than money) and we are still unsure as to whether the gating factor is software or hardware (or both). As with all technology there has to be an ecosystem to support it, and suppliers are just beginning to figure out what might be needed to make such an endeavor work.
We expect this year’[s crop of VR headsets to see a distinct improvement in resolution, likely double the resolution seen on average in those released last year, and while we don’t believe such resolutions (and other metrics) are enough to put VR into the category of a mass production CE product, it does go toward at least improving some of the issues that make VR difficult for a substantial part of the global population. Prices, at least what we know so far, don’t seem to be changing, with the low end expected to be around $500 and the high end over $2,000, but we expect that the focus on the Metaverse will spur a bunch of new headsets that will try to capture a less ‘gamey’ and ‘social’ crowd, that would likely be a bit more cost conscious, although much of the market will still be dominated by well-known brands in 2022. We do note that as resolution increases, the need for higher streaming data rates also increases, which should push headset developers to look toward 5G going forward. No specific plans that we have heard yet, but much will depend on the availability of 5G chipsets designed for VR applications.
One difference that we see this year is more uniformity on VR platforms. In 2021, there were a number of headsets that were based on proprietary platforms, making them more dependent on relationships the platform had with developers and limiting content to a degree. In 2022 it seems that most of the headsets will be based on the Steam VR (pvt) platform, opening smaller brands to the Steam VR catalog and giving consumers an easy and familiar way to buy or stream content, which goes toward making VR easier for rank and file Metaverse participants, who have less desire to work with headsets and more desire to buy stuff. Removing any obstacles to ease-of-use will go toward opening VR up to a larger audience, but it is still our view that a real “Metaverse” is still years off, and the few Metaverse sites associated with companies at CES 2022 indicate that the level of content sophistication is still quite low. While we might have focused more on some of the hardware limitations that surround VR, content is what will generate interest (other than money) and we are still unsure as to whether the gating factor is software or hardware (or both). As with all technology there has to be an ecosystem to support it, and suppliers are just beginning to figure out what might be needed to make such an endeavor work.
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